Ako cijene dionica u SAD-u padaju to se odrazava i na ostala svjetska trzista kapitala. Zasto? Ekonomski isplativa investicija je ona koja osigurava povrat ulozenog kapitala kroz 5 godina, znaci po godisnjoj stopi povrata od 20%. Definitivno investitori ne ulazu u dionice na temelju te teorije, vec na temelju ocekivanja rasta dobiti. Ako se ta ocekivanja ne ostvare cijene dionica padaju. Jedan moj prijatelj je rekao burza je čardak ni na nebu ni na zemlji.
Znaci postoji psiholoski faktor. Zato ako pada u SAD-u pada i kod nas – mozda ne reagiramo na manje oscilacije ali na vece sigurno da. To se jos zove teorija spojenih posuda.
Iako ovdje neki zele osporiti moje znanje koje je steceno kroz obrazovanje (srednja ek. skola i ek. fakultet u zg) kao i visegodisnje pracenje svjetskih, regionalnih i domaceg trzista kapitala, nastaviti cu i dalje pisati na ovom forumu a kome zbog osobnih interesa ne odgovaraju i realne procjene stanja na trzistu kapitala neka ih jednostavno ignoriraju. Na kraju krajeva svatko bi trebao imati svoju strategiju ulaganja i sam procjenjivati koja je informacija relevantna a koja nije a ne pljuvati po postovima koji nisu u skladu s njihovim interesima.
Sugar Supply Signals Bear Market as UBS Sees 18%
By Shruti Date Singh and Marianne Stigset
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Sugar inventories that rose 19 percent last year will reach a record within months as farmers from Brazil to India contribute to a growing glut.
Sugar probably will fall 18 percent to 10 cents a pound by yearend in New York, according to UBS AG, Westpac Banking Corp. and Judy Ganes-Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who runs a consulting firm. Brazil’s production has surged, and the ethanol made from the commodity may lose appeal as crude oil drops further from its Jan. 3 record high.
“It’s hard to imagine an environment where energy prices drop and sugar prices outperform,” said Christoph Eibl, who manages $1.4 billion in commodities as co-founder of Tiberius Asset Management in Zug, Switzerland.
A decline in sugar would threaten export revenue from Brazil and India, the world’s biggest growers, while easing costs for importers Italy and Iran. The sweetener gained 14 percent last month, its biggest advance in two years on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, before $100-a-barrel oil proved fleeting.
High prices are “going to encourage producers to not cut back,” said Ganes-Chase, who runs J. Ganes Consulting LLC from Katonah, New York. “You are going to wind up with more sugar than expected.”
World sugar supply will exceed consumption by 11.139 million metric tons during the 12 months through September, or 7 percent of demand and up from the record surplus of 11.045 million in the previous marketing season, the London-based International Sugar Organization said in a Jan. 10 report.
Sugar Gains, Oil Falls
Inventories will increase 10 percent in the current crop year to 74.7 million tons of raw sugar, representing 47 percent of annual consumption, according to the ISO.
The surplus will total 1 million tons in the 2008-09 season as producers in Brazil increase output and consumption growth slows, Tom McNeill, director of Societe Kingsman SA in Australia, said today at a sugar conference in Dubai.
Sugar for March delivery slipped 0.03 cent to 12.14 cents a pound as of 5:28 a.m. New York time in after-hours trading on ICE Futures U.S. The contract reached a 17-month high of 13.09 cents on Jan. 17. Crude oil is down 10 percent to $90 a barrel from its record $100.09 in January. By December, crude will tumble to $76, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
“If you see crude prices fall, you’ll see sugar suffer in sympathy,” said Patrick Armstrong, who manages $900 million at Insight Investment Management Ltd. in London, which added to its sugar holdings last month. “We came into the year expecting 15 to 20 percent gains, and had most of that” in the first month, Armstrong said. “I expect a slowdown from here.”
Volatility, Speculators
Ganes-Chase said millers in Brazil, the biggest market for cane-based ethanol, may use a bigger percentage of the cane crop than last year to make sweetener rather than fuel.
Sugar won’t sustain its gain “until the ethanol market goes global” with more demand outside Brazil, said Daniel Brebner, the executive director of commodity research for Zurich-based UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank.
The volatility of New York sugar futures on Jan. 29, measured by daily price swings over 10 days, was the highest since October 2006 and the greatest among commodities, exchange data show. By Jan. 15, hedge funds had amassed their largest bet ever that prices would increase, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Over the next two weeks, the number of contracts dropped for the first time since November.
Czarnikow Sugar Ltd., the world’s biggest sugar broker, says speculators are un
Odlican clanak cipp, samo ne treba uvijek doslovno shvacati sve sto analiticari kazu, jer u drugoj polovici 2008 ce se vjerojatno stvari bitno promijeniti u potraznji za energijom.
samo ti piši.svaka informacija je dobrodošla .ja se ne slažem da će pasti DJIA već da će stagnirati sve dok poduzete mjere od strane kongresa ne urode plodom.naravno,treba bar 2,3 mjeseca da se to osjeti.ne treba zaboraviti ni na sastanaka FED-a 21.03 gdje se očekuje smanjivanje kamatne stope za 0,25% što će pomoći konsolidaciji ..
… nastavak je puno lijepši!
Record in Brazil
Brazil, the No. 1 grower, probably will increase raw sugar output by 1.6 percent to a record 33 million tons in the current crop year, according to a Jan. 25 report from F.O. Licht, a researcher in Ratzeburg, Germany. Brazil increased output 17 percent the previous season, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
India, the second-largest producer, became a net exporter in the 2006 marketing year and will have surplus inventories available for shipment through 2010, the ISO predicts. The country’s warehouses hold about 14 million tons, said Utpal Choudhury, an analyst at IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. in Mumbai. The Indian Sugar Mills Association said those reserves will increase to 17 million tons by September.
“The rally is really overextended and prices at 13 cents are not backed by the fundamentals,” said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, says the surplus won’t last. Production in the 2009 season will fall short of demand by 1.6 million tons as Indian farmers shift to other crops, the New York-based company said in a Jan. 7 report.
Incentive for Growers
“In India, the price of wheat has exploded, more than sugar. The government is trying to tell the farmers, `Why don’t you maximize wheat instead of sugar cane?”’ said Jean Bourlot, a managing director and head of the agricultural team at the firm’s office in London. “By the end of 2009, we’ll be at 17 cents a pound.”
Sugar for delivery in October 2009 is already more than 14 cents a pound, a sign to Julian Stow, the Singapore-based trading director at ED&F Man Asia Pte., that farmers will keep producing and prevent Morgan Stanley’s projected deficit.
“Producers respond quickly to the price gains,” Stow said. After the rally to a 25-year high of 19.73 cents a pound in February 2006, prices plunged 57 percent in 16 months as farmers increased plantings.
To contact the reporters on this story: Shruti Date Singh in Chicago at ssingh28@bloomberg.net ; Marianne Stigset in London at mstigset@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 5, 2008 06:03 EST
samo strpljenje,to je sve što nam treba.u međuvremenu preporučujem pročitati jednu dobru knjigu kostolany:izazov burze
Ovdje se raspravlja o šećernoj trski a ne o šećeru proizvedenom od šećerne repe. Razlika neusporediva
opa ko bi reko ljep post još da nije na engleskom pa da ga svi razumiju
Kakve veze ima viro sa DJIA? DJIA pada, investitori postaju zabrinuti za najvece gospodarstvo svijeta, pada potraznja za naftom, cijena nafte i bio dizela pada, ne postoji vise interes za prelazak na proizvodnju kukuruza i uljane repice, stanje sa secernom repom ostaje nepromijenjeno, cijena secera ostaje ista (koja je niza od europske) – cijena secera pada po planu – cijena dionice Vira pada.
Obrnut slijed dogadjaja moguc ukoliko DJIA i potraznja za naftom rastu.
Roman toka svijesti mi se zamjerio još kad su nas za lektiru tjerali čitati “Uliksa”……….
ŠPANCIR:
“Roman toka svijesti mi se zamjerio još kad su nas za lektiru tjerali čitati “Uliksa”……….”
To je iskljucivo tvoj problem.
Kakve veze ima viro sa DJIA? DJIA pada, investitori postaju zabrinuti za najvece gospodarstvo svijeta, pada potraznja za naftom, cijena nafte i bio dizela pada, ne postoji vise interes za prelazak na proizvodnju kukuruza i uljane repice, stanje sa secernom repom ostaje nepromijenjeno, cijena secera ostaje ista (koja je niza od europske) – cijena secera pada po planu – cijena dionice Vira pada. Obrnut slijed dogadjaja moguc ukoliko DJIA i potraznja za naftom rastu.
mislim da je to malo previše pojednostavljeno
pa nije viru dobit ovakvim stopama rasla radi toga što je rasla cijena šećera pa će past kada padne cijena
to je ko da napišeš da će šipcu u dubravi past dobit kad padne cijena zlata