Cijena šećera past će za trećinu, predviđanje je Saxo bank. Cijena šećera, objašnjavaju, poduprta je kombinacijom indijskih suša i prevelikih kiša u Brazilu. U banci vjeruju da će se vrijeme normalizirati pa će šećer tijekom 2010. biti jedna od manje zanimljivih roba za trgovanje.
[tongue] [tongue] [tongue] [lol]

Zbog plinskog šoka 2010. će građanima biti gora od 2009.

"Uvođenje kriznog poreza, porast PDV-a, 20-postotno poskupljenje plina početkom 2009, poskupljenje goriva, skuplje cigarete, skuplje zdravstveno osiguranje… opteretilo je kućne proračune hrvatskih obitelji kojima ni 2010. godina, čini se, neće biti bajna. Tvrtkama, koje su se u godini što se primiče kraju suočile s padom prihoda, otkazima, manjim narudžbama, nelikvidnošću… poskupljenje plina dodatni je šok."

Svaki dan dolazi nova data za izračun lokalnog dna. [bye]

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Cijena šećera past će za trećinu, predviđanje je Saxo bank. Cijena šećera, objašnjavaju, poduprta je kombinacijom indijskih suša i prevelikih kiša u Brazilu. U banci vjeruju da će se vrijeme normalizirati pa će šećer tijekom 2010. biti jedna od manje zanimljivih roba za trgovanje.
[tongue] [tongue] [tongue] [lol]
[/quote]

jelda da su smiješni………..

pa tako dugoročne prognopze ne daje ni kolega plavi na luci ploče [tongue]

Komšija, što se bre patiš džaba? To treba da počneš da računaš tamo negde polovinom 2011.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16535

Komšije, treba da malo pogledate realnost pa onda da zaključite šta čete. Mislim da je vremena sve manje a i likvidnosti. Mnogi če da se nasuču ko kitovi samo mislim da neče da bude grinpisa da vas vrati u more:

http://thegreatdepression2010.com/index.html

http://www.2010depression.com/2010depressionExit.html

http://www.marcuscake.com/glimmer-of-hope-before-the-inevitable-depression.html

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=29573

Lepo vam čika Stevo reko da če likvidnost da kihne pre neki dan. Na nekim hartijama skoro da neče moč da se dobije niti cvonjak za hartiju. Cvonjak je cvonjak a hartija je fikcija – mnogi če da svate.

Puno toga lošega se valja iza brda:

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-stresses-to-the-global-economy-will-push-oil-to-40-2009-12

http://www.businessinsider.com/iranian-guards-cross-over-border-and-seize-iraqi-oil-2009-12

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimco-sells-265-billion-treasuries-and-mbs-october-goes-cash

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30759.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8420049.stm

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15127608&source=hptextfeature

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arVw6g7j5lSA&pos=6

In early January you will receive our “Top Trends 2010,” The Trend Research Institute’s compendium of the dominant trends for the year ahead.

Anything can happen between now and then. The following synopses of these trends provide insights into what to expect so as to be prepared to take swift and appropriate action should a major wild card event occur that could dramatically impact the tempo and direction of forthcoming trends.

After a year of enduring the emotional and financial hardships brought on by the “Panic of ’08,” people around the globe were eager to accept the promises of recovery offered at the end of 2009. But despite an apparent break in the clouds, we forecast that 2010 will prove to be the Breaking Point: increased terror, escalating wars, economic calamity.

Yet, apart from these ominous forecasts, The Trends Research Institute also foresees a variety of emerging social, health, environmental, entertainment, cultural, technological, business and consumer trends that will be both profitable and transformational. Out of the chaos a true Renaissance will spring.

Regards,

Gerald Celente

BREAKING POINT: TOP TRENDS 2010

The “Crash of 2010”

In November of 2007, we predicted the “Panic of ’08.” There was a panic. In November of 2008, we forecast the “Collapse of ’09.” In March ‘09, the global equity markets collapsed. But before they could crash all the way to the ground, a scaffold of emergency props was erected. An unparalleled array of government cash infusions, rescue packages, bailouts and incentives papered over the crisis.

Today, even as government spokesmen and the major media proclaim that the world is emerging from its near-cataclysmic recession, we predict the “Crash of 2010.” The rising equity markets, on which claims of recovery are based, are worlds away from the hard reality of the streets. Unemployment statistics tell the real story of real money that millions of real people no longer have and can’t get, regardless of rising equity markets. This is no time to be caught off guard.

Depression Uplift

As times get tougher and money gets scarcer, one of the hottest new money-making, mood-changing, influence-shaping trends of the century will soon be born. Those that see it first and follow it through will profit the most.

With unemployment, bankruptcies and foreclosures hitting record highs, the spirits of Americans are hitting record lows. People are becoming desperate to find something – anything – that will make them feel better, to do something to pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and start all over again.

We forecast that something will be “Elegance” in its many manifestations. The trend will begin with fashion — a rejection of the gangsta pants/hat-on-sideways look in favor of a move toward quality and individuality — and will spread through all the creative arts, as the need for beauty trumps the thrill of the thuggish. A strong, do-it-yourself aspect will make up for reduced discretionary income, as personal effort provides the means for affordable sophistication.

Terrorism 2010

While The Trends Research Institute can’t predict precise dates or the magnitude of terror attacks, we can be fairly certain they are on the way. As 2009 draws to a close, the “Fort Hood Gunman” is being recognized by the intelligence community as the poster boy for an alarming new terror phenomenon termed “lone-wolf, self-radicalized gunmen.” Years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq – and now Pakistan – have intensified anti-American sentiment and increased the number of individuals seeking revenge. NATO allies contributing troops to the wars will also be targeted.

The holiday season is here — and in just a couple of weeks, 2009 will fade into the history books. I truly hope that you and your family enjoy these happy times.

But before I sign off for the year, I feel obligated to address one of the biggest threats to your wealth that’s looming in 2010. I’m talking about the very real prospect of "failed" Treasury auctions, plunging bond prices, and a big spike in long-term interest rates.

We touched on this issue briefly a week ago. But this time, we’re really going to get our hands dirty!

The Warning Signs Are There.
Please Don’t Ignore Them!

Each and every week, the U.S. government sells Treasuries to fund its operations. Four-week bills. Three-month bills. Six-month bills. One-month bills. Two-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year notes. And of course, the granddaddy of them all, the 30-year Treasury Bond.

The Treasury auctions offer those securities to all kinds of bidders — individual investors, banks, insurers, pension funds, mutual funds, and foreign central banks are among them.

The more aggressive the bidding, the lower the yields Treasury has to pay on the securities it sells. And the lower the yields, the lower the U.S. government’s financing costs.

For a while, the Treasury Department was able to sell almost anything and everything at rock-bottom yields. It didn’t matter if it was the shortest of short-term bills or the longest of long-term bonds. Investors were willing to pay up. That helped keep our cost of borrowing low and underwrote the massive deficit with little-to-no financial pain.

But now that’s starting to change.

Slowly but surely, investors are beginning to appreciate the seriousness of the dangers we highlighted many months ago. All the mega-bailouts … all the Fed money-printing … all the fiscal recklessness being practiced by both Democrats and Republicans alike are starting to spook bond market players.

Sure, they’re still buying very short-term Treasuries like mad. It’s not like the government is going to default tomorrow, or that inflation is going to surge overnight. But auctions of 10-year and 30-year bonds are getting progressively worse, with demand dropping as supply ramps up …

Weak Auctions a Prelude to Failed Ones?

One key measure of auction strength is the "bid-to-cover ratio." This measures the dollar volume of bids versus the volume of Treasuries being sold. The higher the number, the more demand you have relative to supply.

At the last 30-year bond auction, held on December 10, the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.45. That was substantially below the recent peak of 2.92. The 10-year note auction, held one day prior, registered a ratio of 2.62. That too was sharply below the recent high of 3.28.

Another way to gauge auction strength is to see who’s doing the buying …

If you have a high percentage of notes and bonds going to so-called "indirect bidders," you can breathe a sigh of relief. That’s because important buyers like foreign central banks fall into that category, and we desperately need them to step up to the plate to keep rates low.

Unfortunately, the numbers don’t look good there, either. Indirect bidders only took down 40.2 percent of the 30-year bonds sold in mid-December. That was down from the 2009 peak of 50.2 percent in July. Their share in the 10-year auction was even worse — just 34.9 percent. As recently as September, indirect bidders were snapping up 55.3 percent of the notes being sold.

Bottom line: Long-term Treasury auctions are getting weaker and weaker.

We haven’t seen a so-called "failed" auction yet. That’s when the bid-to-cover ratio drops below 1 — meaning the government can’t even get $1 in bids for every $1 in securities being sold. But that has already happened in the U.K., and I believe it’s only a matter of time before it happens here.

Defensive Measures to Take …

If you’re a defensive investor, your course of action is simple: Avoid long-term Treasury debt. Don’t put in bids for long-term notes and bonds via the Treasury Direct system or through your broker, and consider selling whatever long-term holdings you already own.

That strategy is one I’ve been advocating for a long time. And boy do I hope you’ve been listening! Just consider this: If you purchased the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT), an exchange traded fund (ETF) that owns long-term Treasuries, at the end of 2008, you would have already lost more than 20.5 percent! That INCLUDES interest payments, by the way.

As a matter of fact, 2009 has been the absolute WORST year for total return on long-term Treasuries since at least 1973. That includes dismal years such as 1994 and 1999, which occurred during Fed rate-hiking cycles.

Until next time,

Mike

The Building Storm: Gold, the Dollar and Inflation
By: David Galland

http://www.gold-prices.biz/the-casey-report-explains-the-building-storm-in-gold/

One could hardly fail to notice that gold investors have suffered a little more than a “bit of pain” over the past month. More like a good kicking as gold moved down by about 20% from its recent high of $986 on July 15.

Making assumptions is often a bad idea, but I am going to go out on a limb here and make the assumption that those of you with an interest in gold are concerned over the latest setback, the depth of which has surprised even us.
Don’t be.

The evidence to support that statement would fill a telephone book at this point. Starting with the latest U.S. inflation numbers which, even using the government’s own crooked calculations, rang in the last reporting period at 5.6%. Quoting John Williams of ShadowStats.com from a recent email I received from that organization…

Reported consumer inflation continued to surge on both a monthly and annual basis, once again topping consensus expectations. The July CPI-U jumped to a 17-year high of 5.6% in July, while annual inflation for the narrower CPI-W — targeted at the wage-earners category where gasoline takes a bigger proportionate bite out of spending — annual inflation jumped to 6.2%. The CPI-W is used for making the annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security payments. The 2009 adjustment — based on the July to September 2008 period — remains a good bet to top 5%, more than double last year’s 2.3% adjustment for 2008. Such is not good news for federal budget deficit projections.

Based on William’s calculations, which use the same CPI formula used by the Fed prior to the jiggering of the Clinton years, the actual inflation rate is now running at 13.64%.

And on August 19, we learned that the U.S. Producer Price Index rang in at a month-over-month increase of 1.2%, the third month in a row where that leading indicator has topped the 1% mark. Meanwhile, in Europe, the latest numbers put inflation at a 16 year high. And these are not anomalies, but the norm as the inflation tide continues to rise literally around the world.

Dark Clouds

A good analogy to the global currency devaluation is a slow-moving hurricane that, once over warm water, gains energy.
Right now the global inflation is a huge storm, slowly circling off the proverbial coast where it is gathering strength from the hundreds of billions of dollars being fed into it by governments desperate to avoid economic collapse… and from pricing decisions being made by everyone from manufacturers to local shopkeepers looking to cover rising costs.

At this point the skies are dark, the wind is rising, and the torrential rains are beginning to sweep in. The radio is broadcasting warnings to move to higher ground, but the hurricane has yet to hit the shore.

But when it does, it will be a Category 5 and maybe worse.

That’s because, in addition to the straight-up consequences of the government monetary prolificacy and businesses raising prices to try and stay afloat, there is something else feeding power to the storm… something we have been warning about for years now: the rising odds that the global fiat currency system will fail.

Let me add some nuance to that remark.

In recent years, the global financial community, reflexively looking for an alternative to the obviously damaged U.S. dollar, has settled on the euro. But the euro is equally flawed, and maybe even more so, than the U.S. dollar. Now that the trading herd has also come to that conclusion, they are rushing back toward the dollar.

They are doing so not because the U.S. dollar is healthy, but rather because that is all that they know… a heads-or-tails continuum running something along the lines of “If the ‘it’s-not-the-dollar’ play is over, then it must be time to go back into the dollar.”
The euro sinks, the dollar goes up.
And so gold, viewed by these same trade

Dollar-Bullish Fund Runs Out Of Shares
Vincent Fernando|Dec. 19, 2009, 7:42 AM | 1,170 |12
PrintTags: Markets, Money
Dollar bulls swamped the dollar-bullish exchange traded fund ‘UUP’ on Friday.

WSJ: Strong demand for instruments that take bullish positions on the dollar prompted one such exchange-traded fund to be halted on Friday, after it ran out of shares.

"The fund issued all of the remaining shares to its authorized participants," said DB Commodity Services, which offers the ETF, in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund is often referred to by its symbol, UUP.

…

DB Commodity Services, which offers the U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund, said in a prepared statement Friday that it filed on Dec. 8 to create 240 million additional shares of UUP "to manage exceptional investor demand."