osnova ulaganja u dionice je likvidnost, ako toga nema,a lova ti hitno zatreba, možeš samo uzeti štrik i objesiti se [bye]
kako za koga… neki stilovi investiranja ne poznaju pojam "hitno zatrebati" obzirom da se ulaže na dugoročno, a što niža cijena "to bolje" jer se time može još dokupiti… (naime, "nikada" se ne utuče sve u dionice, nego postepeno… ima se između ostalih i one dohodovne/dividende koje daju keš sa kojim se također dokupljuje i sl.)
mnogi nisu ni zamijetili, ali mi se de facto ubrzano približavamo lokalnom ovogodišnjem dnu! pogledajte većinu dionica da su na skoro najnižim vrijednostima ove godine! crobex je još uvijek na 2000 isključivo zato jer ga umjetno održavaju mirovinci sa HT, INA, ERNT,ADRS-P…
blue chipovi su blue chipovi 😀
fondovi igraju igru i brane par svojih perjanica, a sve ostalo su satrli. evo DLKV npr. kojeg je AZ namjerno uništio i srozao s 440 na 330 kn,pa THNK je bila na 2400 sad je na 1500, INGR je bila na 60 sad je na 42 kn itd.itd.
a zašto misliš da su ove više cijene bile realne? Možda su upravo ove cijene fer… Kako možeš građevinare danas uspoređivati sa bilo čim drugim 🙂
da je ADRS-P pao razmjerno na recimo 200 kn, ERNT na 1100 kn, HT na 220 kn, INA na 1200 kn, koliko bi bio crobex sada?
eto dobar primjer za zamisliti se nad svime rečenim (dakle o tome da možda ne mora i ne treba i pogotovo neće uvijek… "sve ići u istom smjeru") : ADRS-P na 200 kn?? Da, moguće je, pa bila je i na 133 kn, ali ja ti kažem: sve ispod cca. 400 kn za ADRS-P je poremećno, ali imaš pravo… bilo je i poremećenije, zašto ne bi bilo opet…
mi ubrzano tonemo na novo dno, samo se crobex umjetno održava na apsurdno visokim razinama zbog tih par dionica koje drže crobex !!!
to je moguće. A ta "dna" su divne prilike za investitore – da kupuju podcjenjene dionice, jer kada sve pada simulatno… a gdje su početne razine nekih već bile podcijenjene za razliku od nekih drugih koji to nisu niti prije pada bili… naravno da se otvaraju fundamentalno nevjerojatne prilike.
P.S. Hrvatska nije u depresiji, u običnoj je recesije. Možda je ipak pitanje koliko "običnoj", ali ipak recesiji. Ako do depresije dođe – "tek ćemo onda vidjeti svoje"… ali o tome je teško govoriti sada jer ulazak ili ne ulazak u depresiju nije već determiniran nego ovisi o postupcima koji će se u narednom razdoblju odraditi ili neće odraditi… Druga stvar ako netko ima kristalnu kuglu pa zna što će se dogoditi, premda… možda kristalna kugla i nije potrebna gledajući kakav proračun nas očekuje u 2010… no budemo vidjeli, još puno toga ovisi i o sreći – naime ako slučajno našim kockarima ispadne da su pogodili sa pozitivnim projekcijama rasta slično kao i EBRD što ima tako optimistične projekcije, tada nas možda i sreća posluži… ali jadna li je to Država koja igra isključivo na sreću, a pameti ništa… Naime: nije moguće redovito dobivati oklade! Pogodi se ponekad, a onda… kad se promaši, ovisi što promašiš! Naši se kockaju sa sudbinom cijele Države. Jako neodgovorno!
P.P.S. Zato pamet u glavu, ulagati u podcijenjene dionice vrhunskih poduzeća… i nema brige, što god bilo – kratkoročno je nevrijeme nakon kojega dolazi Sunce!
Will The Three Trends of 2009 Prevail in 2010?
GaveKal Five Corners
Looking back at the past year, we can conclude that three inter-related trends have dominated financial markets: 1) an impressive weakness in the US$, 2) a significant rally in commodities, and 3) a pronounced out-performance of emerging markets, including Asia. Today, these three trends appear to be running out of steam: the US$ has been rallying, commodities have rolled over and, in November, for the first time in what feels like an eternity, the US MSCI actually out-performed all other countries in the World MSCI index. For us, this begs the question of whether the trends of 2010 will prove different to those of 2009? And the answer to that question may be found in the most unlikely of places, namely the Middle-East.
The news that a Dubai World unit would be suspending payments to creditors, was promptly followed by the rumor that two defaulted Saudi groups (the Saad group and the Ahab group) were treating their domestic creditors differently than foreign banks. From our standpoint in Hong Kong, all these bleak headlines lead us to ponder how the Middle East could find itself in this tight spot? After all, who, a decade ago, would have bet on Dubai (soon to be followed by Venezuela?) going bust with oil at US$80/bbl?
Of course, the apparent squeeze may be nothing more than a few bad apples that blatantly mismanaged their liabilities and blew up their balance sheets. But we have to admit that we are also intrigued by the recent announcements that some of the region’s sovereign wealth funds (Qatar, Kuwait…) have lately been selling the large stakes they acquired in Western financials at the beginning of last year’s financial crisis. Of course, these disposals may be the result of a deep relief that the banks are back above their purchase price and, like a money manager who has just been on a gut-wrenching ride, the SWF are happy to turn the page and put this episode behind them. Or perhaps, the sales are an indication that the Middle East needs US$ right now and that we are now confronting some kind of squeeze on the US$.
Thus, the recent strength in the US$ may be highlighting that we are experiencing an important change in the investment environment. Indeed, at the risk of making a mountain out of sand-dune, we believe that one thing is for sure: recent developments in Saudi and Dubai will most likely give pause to foreign banks looking to expand their lending operations in that region. And if financing for projects becomes more challenging, then this raises the question of whether the Middle East will look to pump more oil in a bid to generate the revenue necessary to keep the wheels churning? Could an unfolding financial squeeze in the Middle-East lead to the kind of massive cheating on OPEC quotas that we witnessed in the 1980s?
Ricardo, Schumpeter or Malthus?
by Charles Gave
We are today very fortunate in having a very broad, highly diversified client base with readers in over 40 countries and in all sorts of businesses, from property developers to mining companies, and of course hedge funds, mutual fund companies and pension funds. We are not bringing this up to brag but because, over the years, we have noticed that, regardless of their locations and underlying businesses, investors tend to fall into one of three categories:
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Disciples of Ricardo: The law of comparative advantage, as first described by Ricardo, guarantees an optimal distribution of labor and capital between countries, and thus a very good growth rate for profits. This is true as long as comparative advantages have not been fully exploited. And, of course, the one part of the world where Ricardo’s law of comparative advantages is just beginning to have an impact is, of course, emerging markets (for example, see The Bullish Growth in China’s Road Infrastructure). Thus, ‘Ricardian investors’ tend to be very biased today towards emerging markets.
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Disciples of Schumpeter: For Schumpeterians, the source of high returns can be found in the influence of the entrepreneur/inventor and breakthroughs in technology. Such investors tend to favor knowledge-based companies (we have called these platform-companies), and usually carry overweight position in tech stocks, healthcare stocks and other growth stocks.
*
Disciples of Malthus: For such investors, commodities cannot not be in short supply over time given the growth of the world’s population and of overall global incomes. Commodity prices will thus have to rise given that we are confronting a world with too many Chinese/Indians/Asians… and not enough oil/copper/gold/iron-ore etc… For Malthusians, the solution is thus simple: load up on commodities or commodities producers or load up on gold and stay outright bearish of most asset classes. Most of the perma-bears (as opposed to cyclical bears) we have met over the years tend to be disciples of Malthus.
In our opinion, to reach a diversified position, one can build a portfolio on Ricardo and Malthus, on the assumption that rising living standards in emerging markets will lead to a structural rise in prices of many commodities. And while history does not support such a view, it still makes plenty of logical sense.
The Stock Market and the Dollar …
by Marty Chenard
Most investors say that a lower Dollar is a positive for the Stock Market. Others, like Art Cashin at UBS Financial Services, recently said that "if there is a real rush to the Dollar, it could produce a 1,000 point drop in a day … (on the DOW)".
The reality is that it is often the "speed" at which something happens that determines what happens to the stock market. Most market related events have what is called an associated "absorption rate".
If for instance, the Dollar took a year to rise 5%, then the probability is that the stock market would absorb the "shock effect" because it was happening at a slower pace than the improvement of market fundamentals.
However, if the Dollar were to rise 10% in two days, then that would create an imbalance that the stock market couldn’t absorb that quickly and that would be a negative influence.
So, why are we even discussing this?
Because the Dollar has been trying to establish a " base" since the end of last October. Last Friday, it made significant strides in that basing process. On Friday, the Dollar closed at 76.55 … just below a critical resistance level of 76.82.
Jim Chanos: We’re Shorting Autos, China, And Commodities But Not Financials
John Carney|Dec. 15, 2009, 2:16 PM | 364 |comment1
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Tags: Hedge Funds, Markets, China, Money, Commodities, Bubbles, Wall Street, Investing
Kynikos Associates founder Jim Chanos stopped by the Fast Money set for an interview with CNBC’s Melissa Lee this afternoon.
A few highlights from the video:
* He’s not short the financial sector right now, although he thinks there may be another shoe to drop and more losses. He is short some select financial names but not the sector.
* There are opportunities for shorting individual companies in this market but he would recommend shorting the market as a whole.
* He’s shorting autos again, after covering in late 2008 and 2009. He said he is short manufacturres. Which ones? "I wouldn’t be long Fiat and Ford, the F brothers, right now," he said.
* China is Dubai times 1000. The government has too much control of the economy. The GDP numbers are not credible.
* Because China bans short-selling, you have to short derivative plays. Short commodities and people shipping raw material into China. Not gold but those commodities involved in the China construction boom. Copper. Cement. Iron Ore.
* "We’re often early. You never get the top tick. You never get the bottom tick. And anyone who says they do is probably…doing the Chinese GDP reports."
One thing Chanos hints at but doesn’t quite explain is that his fund is always net short but long the market. How can that be? The positions of the fund are always tipped toward short selling. But the returns on those shorts are bench marked against the market. This means that in a bear market, Chanos’s shorts must out-perform to the downside for the firm to make its perfomance targets. In a bull market, things are a bit easier.
Fannie Freddie May Need Another $400 Billion Taxpayer Assistance
Remember the ridiculous claim that taxpayers would not lose a dime on Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac when they were seized 16 months ago?
It’s certainly no surprise in this corner but Fannie, Freddie Overseer May Seek More Treasury Aid
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s federal regulator is renegotiating the companies’ financing plan with the U.S. Treasury Department and may seek an increase to their $400 billion federal lifeline before the end of the year, according to people familiar with the talks.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of mortgage money in the U.S., have used $111.6 billion of their $400 billion in backup financing in less than a year.
The financing plan instituted for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac requires them to reduce their $1.57 trillion combined mortgage portfolios by 10 percent annually starting next year and caps their debt issuance at 120 percent of their assets.
Officials set up a $200 billion lifeline with the Treasury, which was doubled in May, to keep the companies solvent. If they exhaust that backstop, regulators will be required to place them into receivership.
Treasury officials aren’t likely to take the chance of allowing the companies to fall into receivership, which is a bankruptcy-like process that would increase the companies’ debt costs and disrupt the mortgage markets, said Paul Miller, a former examiner for the Federal Reserve who now analyzes the banking and mortgage industry for FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia.
‘Pain Threshold’
“The Treasury has shown that their pain threshold is almost” non-existent, and the housing “market is still very fragile,” Miller said in an interview.
The companies have said $200 billion apiece may not be enough support. The Treasury Department is facing a Dec. 31 deadline to increase that amount without congressional approval.
“With the GSEs being used as public policy tools, it is impossible to quantify with certainty what losses might be in a stress scenario, as the rules of the game might keep shifting,” said Rajiv Setia, a fixed income analyst for Barclays Capital in New York.
No Pain Threshold
It is quite clear the Treasury does not care how much pain it inflicts on taxpayers, which is exactly what happens when housing is used a public policy tool.
Does anyone believe Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will reduce their $1.57 trillion combined mortgage portfolios by 10 percent annually starting next year or caps their debt issuance at 120 percent of their assets?
If this absurd plea for help goes through, taxpayers will be on the hook for up to $800 billion in losses.
Yet, the administration has the gall to brag about making a few $billion on Citigroup even though it is bleeding badly on the GSEs, lost $100 billion or so on AIG, and the Fed’s balance sheet is an unaudited mess.
Ja nekim kolegama pricam da je NOK odlicna valuta za hedgiranje a oni mi se smijahu
http://www.businessinsider.com/is-the-norwegian-dollar-the-new-gold-2009-12
Ko vole da čita u ovo snežno veče možda da se sutra ne opeče:
http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-2010-will-be-a-year-of-suffering-soverigns-2009-12
http://www.safehaven.com/article-15282.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-15277.htm
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/second-time-row-one-month-bill-auction-closes-0000
Ivan Bižanović, vlasnik Lika nekretnina i član Udruženja posrednika u prometu nekretninama pri HGK, smatra kako je za očekivati da iduće godine te 2011. pravo vlasništva zbog neplaćanja kredita izgubiti nekoliko tisuća građana.
„Glavni uzrok ne vraćanja kredita biti će rastuća nezaposlenost, dobar dio vlasnika nekretnina biti će u financijskom ponoru. U vlasništvo banaka ove godine prenijeto je nekoliko stotine kuća i stanova zbog ne vraćanja kredita“, rekao je Bižanović dodajući kako kriza u građevinarstvu čak prijeti i propasti banaka.
„Sad se već zna da banke nemaju kome prodati tu imovinu a kao posljedicu će imati opasno ugroženu likvidnost“, upozorio je Bižanović koji smatra kako ova godina ni za agencije za nekretnine niti za građevinare neće biti najgora jer za njih prava kriza slijedi tek iduće godine.
„Tržište nekretnina još nije dotaklo dno, slijedi veći pad cijena početkom godine, a strmoglavi pad u drugoj polovici iduće godine. Godina 2010. biti će jako opasna“, upozorio je vlasnik Lika nekretnina koji smatra da je ovu godinu bilo pametno iskoristiti za stvaranje pretpostavki kako bi preživjeli krizni udar u 2010. godini.
„Kriza će doseći nevjerojatne razmjere u drugoj polovici slijedeće godine, a do kraja godine bankrotirat će 40 posto građevinara“, procjenjuje Bižanović upozoravajući kako osim problema u malim i srednjim tvrtkama i veliki strahuju od propasti.
Ne postoje naznake gospodarskog oporavka, bilježi se sve veći rast nezaposlenost i sve češća pojava rada na pola radnog vremena te rada na određeno. Dodatni minus građevinarima je potpuno rezanje državnih investicija, koje se neće vratiti sve dok Hrvatska ne uđe u EU i ne povuče novac iz EU fondova. Sadašnjih sto tisuća radnika koji rade u građevinskom sektoru strahuju od otkaza.
„Ako uzimamo u obzir da se sada dovršavaju projekti započeti 2007. godine, prije krize, a kad se oni dovrše očekuje nas pravi pad građevinskih aktivnosti preko 30 posto“, rekao je Bižanović te zaključio kako su nam potrebne velike promjene da bi se zaustavio silazni trend u građevini.
„Silazni trend neće se zaustaviti dok se ne prodaju već sagrađeni stanovi, a to ovisi o državi i bankama koje bi trebale potaknuti kupnju stanova“, rekao je Bižanović.
Capo di tutti capi bi se vratio? Ne zna dali bi piškio ili kakio.[bye]
Tek što smo ga se riješili.
Ako nešto ne pokuša za koji mjesec je tamo gdje je mafiozi i mjesto. Iza rešetaka.
Poznavajući ga on je u stanju destabilizirati državu kako bi spasio svoju lažljivu guzičetinu.
Capo di tutti capi bi se vratio? Ne zna dali bi piškio ili kakio.[bye]
Tek što smo ga se riješili.
Ako nešto ne pokuša za koji mjesec je tamo gdje je mafiozi i mjesto. Iza rešetaka.
Poznavajući ga on je u stanju destabilizirati državu kako bi spasio svoju lažljivu guzičetinu.
Mislim da kad bi se taj smrad, nedajbože, vratio, da bi direktno išli na testiranje dna iz ožujka.
Ali nadajmo se da će ga institucije pravne države locirati,uhititi i streljati [bye]
Ja padnem u depresiju od same pomisli na mogućnost povratka dotične spodobe!!
I ne samo da bi pali na dno iz ožujka, već bi crobex dnevno padao deset posto, sve dok ne bi izgubio sastavnice………
Pa to je užasna pomisao, ježe mi se dlake na guzici od pomisli da je to moguće?? [shocked]