gospon grabežljivac vidim da ste jako optimistični
Marc Faber
“I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end,” Faber added.
“Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulus”.
In one of his Gloomiest predictions, Faber, referred to as Dr Doom, said “the average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war”.
“People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy,” Faber said.
Ne zvuči baš optimistično,moram priznati ali ono što ćete vidjeti u pdf-u je stvarno zastrašujuće.
Sve o derivatima i to vrlo friško stanje iz drugog kvartala 2009.
Apsolutni prvak u izloženosti je JPM sa 79 trilijuna dolara u derivatima [shocked]
A kompletna imovina im je 1,6 trilijuna.Prestrašno.
Izloženost bankarskog sustava uvećana za dodatnih 1,5 triljuna dolara u drugom kvartalu..
Ne znam samo kako će to nama pomoći.
BSN
Pad ekonomske aktivnosti rezultirao je brojnim otpuštanjima, ali i rastom deficita i gomilanjem javnog duga
ZAGREB – U trećem kvartalu ove godine BDP je pao za 5,8 posto, pokazuju preliminarne procjene DZS-a. To je nešto sporije nego dva prethodna tromjesečja kada su minusi iznosili 6,7 i 6,3 posto. No, analitičari su i očekivali da će potonuće ekonomske aktivnosti u drugom dijelu godine bite nešto blaže te da će na godišnjoj razini BDP pasti oko šest posto.
VEZANE VIJESTI
Vijesti
* Hrvati će za Božić izdvojiti čak milijardu kuna manje
Komentari
* Zaokret o kojem svi govore a nitko ga se ne usudi provesti
Kada se gleda u usporedbi s drugim zemljama, Hrvatska se drži sredine, pa nije najgora, ali nema se s čim ni hvaliti. U zemljama EU BDP je u trećem kvartalu pao 4,3 posto prema istom kvartalu lani.
Izlaz is recesije u EU
Međutim, u usporedbi s prethodnim kvartalom zabilježen je rast od 0,2 posto, čime je proglašen izlazak iz recesije. Premda je forma tehnički zadovoljena, ekonomisti se slažu da je oporavak i dalje vrlo krhak i neizvjestan. Snažan pad BDP-a u nekim je zemljama posljedica sloma izvoza, dok je u pojedinim zemljama poput Hrvatske pad najviše ubrzao zastoj potrošnje i investicija.
Gomilanje duga
Pad ekonomske aktivnosti rezultirao je brojnim otpuštanjima zaposlenih, a i velikim padom prihoda, te rastom proračunskih deficita i gomilanjem javnog duga. Mnogi prognostičari upozoravaju da bi to mogao biti okidač nove krize.
U prvoj polovici godine u Hrvatskoj je pad potrošnje iznosio oko 9,5 posto, dok su investicije pale oko 12,5 posto. Premda će padati nešto sporijom dinamikom, oporavak potrošnje ne očekuje se ni iduće godine. Stoga analitičari ocjenjuju vrlo optimističnim Vladine procjene da će prihodi od PDV-a nagodinu biti veći za 5,4 posto, a trošarine za tri posto.
Pored toga, Vlada je radila proračun na procjeni rasta BDP-a u 2010. godini od 0,5 posto. Za mnoge analitičare to je prilično nerealno. Njihove su procjene bile u rasponu od stagnacije do pada od dva posto. Analitičari PBZ-a, primjerice, vjerovali su da je moguća stagnacija ukoliko dođe do pozitivnog pomaka u fiskalnoj politici.
Spirala nelikvidnosti
Međutim, prijedlog proračuna nije donio nikakav zaokret. Uz ostalo, to znači da država nastavlja snažno istiskivati privatn sektor na financijskom tržištu. Nelikvidnost u gospodarstvu ove je godine postala gorući problem, što otežava i njihovo plaćanje obveza prema državi. Uvjeti preživljavanje postaju teži, a izlaz iz recesije neizvjestan.
Objavljeno
27.11.2009 14:40:27
Vrijeme zadnje promjene
27.11.2009 14:49:27
Gradovi pred bankrotom, ministarstvo bez odgovora
Porezna uprava blokirala je u četvrtak račun Grada Osijeka, Zlataru je Vlada pokušala pomoći s 1,5 milijuna kuna, Šibenik gasi javnu rasvjetu. Može li država pomoći baš svim gradovima i općinama u financijskim problemima
Bankamagazin
Ispiši
Veličina slova: Smanji tekst Povečaj tekst
Porezna uprava blokirala je u četvrtak račun Grada Osijeka zbog nemogućnosti isplate posljednje rate povrata poreza građanima od milijun i pol kuna. Na računu Grada bilo je 600.000 kuna, a račun je blokiran zbog preostalih 900.000 kuna. To je drugi put da Porezna uprava blokira račun Grada zbog povrata poreza, koji u konačnici iznosi 24 milijuna kuna.
Osijek je samo jedan u nizu gradova koji se nalaze na rubu bankrota. Slavonski Brod spasio se odlukom Ustavnog suda koji je odmaralište zbog kojeg je nastalo sporno potraživanje vratio Hrvatskom fondu za privatizaciju i odbio tužbu tvrtke Novogradnja kojom se tražila namira potraživanja za radove objavljene na odmaralištu. Obveze Grada Trogira krajem rujna iznosile su više od 58 milijuna kuna, što je razina godišnjeg gradskog proračuna, dok obveze Grada Zlatara do kraja godine premašuju 13 milijuna kuna, dok je godišnji gradski proračun 17,6 milijuna kuna.
Šibenski gradonačelnik Ante Županović od Komunalnog odjela zatražio je da izradi plan štednje prema kojem će se naizmjenično gasiti svaka druga ili treća žarulje javne rasvjete. Naime, ovogodišnjim proračunom predviđenih 6,6 milijuna kuna za javnu rasvjetu je potrošenu. S obzirom na veličinu proračuna od oko sedam milijardi kuna, posebna priča su proračun Grada Zagreba i Zagrebačkog holdinga (s dodatne dvije milijarde kuna), koji su također na klimavim nogama i oko kojih se gradonačelnik Bandić sukobljava s dojučerašnjim stranačkim kolegama iz SDP-a.
Zlatar je već zatražio pomoć Vlade, a na jučerašnjoj sjednici Vlada je tom zagorskom gradu na teret Proračunske zalihe Državnog proračuna za 2009. godinu odobrila pomoć od 1,5 milijuna kuna. No, odobrena pomoć neće riješiti gradski dug, možda će tek privremeno riješiti probleme zaposlenika Gradskog poglavarstva koji strepe zbog neisplaćenih plaća. Osim toga, Proračunske zalihe Vlade su ograničene, a lista općina i gradova koji bi mogli zatražiti državnu pomoć raste, baš kao i njihovi dugovi.
U Ministarstvu financija za sada nisu bili u mogućnosti komentirati financijske probleme lokalne uprave i samouprave jer su trenutno zauzeti prijedlogom državnog proračuna za iduću godinu. Tako smo ostali uskaćeni za odgovor je li ministarstvo (su)odgovorno za stanje financija posrnulih gradova i općina, te hoće li im državi i u svim ostalim slučajevima željeti i moći pomoći. (td)
Al ste se uhvatili Crnog Labuda ko pijan plota, a korist od knjige je u rangu Nivesine Gole istine.
Dubai mi je iznenađenje kolko i kiša ovaj vikend. [bye]
crpe znanje iz krivih knjiga kolega. Zato ga niti nemaju. Poslali im krivu bačvu. Da bačvu…. džezvu [bye]
[/quote]
Bracek ima li u kojoj knjizi da ti piše u kolikom će minusu u apsolutnom iznosu biti do kraja 2010.?
Ako ima javi da ti izračunamo postotke, da se ne mučiš, znaš i sam da si iz matematike išao na popravak………… [wink]
[/quote]
kolega predator, vidi se da imate znanje čim znate računati postotke što je za neke kolege SF, primjerice za kolegu Vidru koji je preporučio HDEL na 350. Dajte mi molim vas izračunajte koliko su u minusu vać sada nakon samo mjesec dana ovi koji su ga poslušali, ne moramo čekati 2010. Vi ćete to sigurno znati jer imate znanje i sigurno ne biste tako nešto preporučili, jel tako?
srdačno Vaš,
guvernerov mlađi brat,
GUBERNATOR
Ovaj krš u Dubai ima da ispadne puno veče kreševo nego šta če da se čini u prvi moment. Ovo bi mogo da bude okidač za nastavak i ulazak u puno depresivno stanje. Treba da se prati u sledečim tjednima. Vidim da ima mlogo velikih banaka koje su zaglavile unutra šta če da se reflektuje na celi svet:
Nema ih puno, britanski HSBC i RBS uglavnom…to se moglo pročitat prije mjesec, dva…
nije pisalo o tome na safehavenu i zerohedgu? [smiley]
See No Asset Bubbles … Hear No Asset Bubbles … Speak No Warnings About Asset Bubbles
Ever see one of those “See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” statues or pictures? The ones with the three monkeys, one covering his eyes, one covering his ears, and one covering his mouth?
That’s pretty much what the Federal Reserve appears to be doing now when it comes to the asset markets …
redcheck Stocks up 67 percent from their lows? No worries.
redcheck Junk bonds up 52 percent this year — the biggest increase in the history of the high-yield debt market, even as default rates are hitting their highest levels since the Great Depression? That’s cool, too.
The Fed seems to be ignoring what’s going on in the asset markets.
The Fed seems to be ignoring what’s going on in the asset markets.
redcheck Gold at all-time highs of over $1,170 an ounce? Fine with us.
redcheck Crude at $80 and climbing? Agriculture commodities ramping? Surging prices for sugar … cotton … wheat … platinum … silver … copper … aluminum … lead … ZINC? Pu-shaw! Nothing to worry about.
Is it just me or are we apparently ready for round THREE of idiotic asset speculation fueled by too much easy money? Sure looks like it …
Deny, Deny, Deny
You think I’m exaggerating the Fed’s blissful state of ignorance here? Don’t take my word for it. Take THEIRS!
In just the past several days, Fed speakers have practically been tripping all over themselves to deny the existence of any asset bubbles.
First up was Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in New York. He said:
“It is inherently extraordinarily difficult to know whether an asset’s price is in line with its fundamental value,” … but “It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system.”
Next in line was Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn in Illinois. He said:
“The prices of assets in U.S. financial markets do not appear to be clearly out of line with the outlook for the economy and business prospects as well as the level of risk-free interest rates.”
Then there was San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen. She basically waved off the idea of raising rates to combat surging asset prices, saying in Hong Kong that:
“Further research into the connections among monetary policy, the banking and financial sectors, and systemic risk is needed to help answer this question.”
That’s bureaucrat-speak for “We’re going to kick the can down the road.”
Fed President Bullard said we could expect two more years of easy money.
Fed President Bullard said we could expect two more years of easy money.
But St. Louis Fed President James Bullard trumped them all. In a speech in his hometown, he essentially pledged that the Fed would keep rates unchanged through 2012. His comments:
“If you look at the last two recessions, in each case the FOMC waited two and a half to three years before we started our tightening campaign … If we took that as a benchmark, that would put us in the first half of 2012.”
Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. And he lives in Washington, DC! He’s going to give you more than two years of abundant liquidity and cheap money. Go ahead and party and speculate like mad because the cops aren’t going to shut things down anytime soon.
What Does this Mean For
Investors Like You?
Well, in my trading services, I have been aggressively long various ETFs and options despite technical indicators that don’t look incredibly bullish. My subscribers are sitting on a couple rounds of triple-digit gains, and in my view, more are coming down the pike.
Why the success?
Investors who stick around too long will get creamed.
Investors who stick around too long will get creamed.
Because I’m keeping it simple. This is an environment where any and all assets are levitating on a sea of easy Fed money. We had the tech stock bubble. We had the housing bubble. Now we have an “everything” bubble — courtesy of t
Aggressive Bargains Lure Hordes of Shoppers, but They’re Still Slow to Open Wallets says the Wall Street Journal in ‘Black Friday’ Tests Economy
Retailers succeeded in enticing deal-hungry shoppers into their stores on Friday, but at the checkout lines many people were sticking to the most deeply discounted items. That may prove to be a disappointment to executives at the nation’s major chain stores, which have been battered by the recession. Many have been hoping that, once in the stores, consumers would spend a little more freely than they did a year ago.
Brian Dunn, chief executive of Best Buy Co., said Friday that consumers were snapping up lower-priced electronics such as netbook computers, digital cameras and smaller flat-screen televisions. "But this is not a year where wallets are expanding," Mr. Dunn said. "There will be winners and losers this season in retail, and the differences will be pronounced."
One bright spot in the retail picture has been online sales — but even there much of the traffic has been driven by deep discounts at mass merchants’ sites and at giant Amazon.com Inc.
The frantic Black Friday promotions, which began well beforehand this year, were driven by a troubling reality for retailers: many shoppers say they plan to spend less this season. "I don’t think there’s a lot of impulse shopping going on," said James Fielding, president of Walt Disney Co.’s Disney Stores. "People are just being realistic about their personal situation and the economy."
Aggressive Bargains Lure Hordes of Shoppers, but They’re Still Slow to Open Wallets says the Wall Street Journal in ‘Black Friday’ Tests Economy
Retailers succeeded in enticing deal-hungry shoppers into their stores on Friday, but at the checkout lines many people were sticking to the most deeply discounted items. That may prove to be a disappointment to executives at the nation’s major chain stores, which have been battered by the recession. Many have been hoping that, once in the stores, consumers would spend a little more freely than they did a year ago.
Brian Dunn, chief executive of Best Buy Co., said Friday that consumers were snapping up lower-priced electronics such as netbook computers, digital cameras and smaller flat-screen televisions. "But this is not a year where wallets are expanding," Mr. Dunn said. "There will be winners and losers this season in retail, and the differences will be pronounced."
One bright spot in the retail picture has been online sales — but even there much of the traffic has been driven by deep discounts at mass merchants’ sites and at giant Amazon.com Inc.
The frantic Black Friday promotions, which began well beforehand this year, were driven by a troubling reality for retailers: many shoppers say they plan to spend less this season. "I don’t think there’s a lot of impulse shopping going on," said James Fielding, president of Walt Disney Co.’s Disney Stores. "People are just being realistic about their personal situation and the economy."