Što se proračuna tiče, naravno, da nisu doneseni veliki rezovi jer idu izbori, što ne znači da neće biti kasnije.
Isto kao krizni porez, umjesto smanjenja plaća=krizni porez, tako i rezovi neće se zvati rezovi već nekako drugačije.

http://www.jutarnji.hr/-novi-poslovi-u-inozemstvu–a-u-hrvatskoj-otkazi-/367077/

Iduća godina će biti strašna al nakon toga bi trebali krenuti prema gore. Prezaduženi smo i to nam smanjuje manevarski prostor. Žalosno je da su političari prije godinu dana kad je kriza već jako nagrizla hrvatsko gospodarstvo pričali kako je kod nas sve lijepo i krasno. A vidi sad, depresija se proširila Hrvatskom i više nitko ne vidi svijetlo na kraju tunela… Ma bit će bolje, nadam se…

Rezovi uopće NISU doneseni, što je najgore.

Dionički fondovi ove godine rasli 50-ak posto

Vaš link

[/b]

Jurčić: Kriza u RH tek je 20 posto posljedica globalne krize

K
riza u Hrvatskoj tek je 20 posto uzrokovana "prelijevanjem" svjetske krize na našu zemlju, a ostalih 80 posto je posljedica hrvatskih grešaka, ocijenio je ekonomski stručnjak Ljubo Jurčić na današnjoj tribini Saveza samostalnih sindikata Hrvatske o novoj ekonomskoj politici koja bi trebala Hrvatsku izvući iz krize.

Hrvatska se sada suočava s istinom – ima veću potrošnju od proizvodnje, veći uvoz od izvoza i visok vanjski dug, stalno joj se smanjuje konkurentnost, a zbog deindustrijalizacije više nema vlastitih proizvoda, upozorio je Jurčić. Kriza će ove godine uzrokovati pad bruto domaćeg proizvoda od oko 5,5 posto, a u idućoj godini bio bih sretan da taj pad iznosi 2 posto, kaže Jurčić te ističe kako će to izazvati veliku nezaposlenost.

Države se obično razvijaju od manufakture prema industriji, no kod nas je obrnuto – uništili smo industriju koja je bila izgrađena u socijalizmu, a ništa novo je nije nadomjestilo. Od investicija svega 12 posto ide u prerađivačku industriju, što je najniže u Europi, naglašava Jurčić.

Ono što su kod drugih instrumenti ekonomske politike u Hrvatskoj su postali ciljevi, pa je tako stabilan tečaj postao sam sebi svrhom iako poskupljuje domaće proizvode i ruši im konkurentnost, a nulti deficit državnog proračuna i dalje se forsira u vrijeme kada se druge države služe deficitom kako bi zaustavile krizu (npr. u SAD-u je deficit ove godine 13,3 posto).

Time smo se doveli u poziciju da nemamo ni proizvoda niti radnih mjesta – Hrvatska predstavlja svega 0,2 posto proizvodnje u Europi, a to je manje od statističke greške, zaključuje Jurčić.

On se, zajedno s drugim ekonomskim stručnjakom koji je sudjelovao na tribini Damirom Novotnyem, založio za novu ekonomsku politiku koja će, prije svega, utvrditi što Hrvatska može proizvoditi te potom osigurati povoljne uvjete za to. Novotny pritom upozorava da Hrvatska mora uskoro početi s modernizacijom, inače će živjeti u stagnaciji idućih 10 do 15 godina.

(Hina/pd)

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Marc Faber Sees War Against an Invented Enemy and a Big Financial Bust

Inquiring minds are reading In his gloomiest prediction yet, Marc Faber sees big financial bust leading to war.

Marc Faber, the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor, said eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to continued stimulus.

Speaking at a conference in Singapore on Wednesday, Faber said: "The crisis has not solved anything. On the contrary there is less transparency today than there was before. The government’s balance sheet is expanding, and the abuses that have led to the one cause of the crisis have continued".

"I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end," Faber added.

"Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulus".

In one of his Gloomiest predictions, Faber, referred to as Dr Doom, said "the average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war".

"People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy," Faber said.

"At some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war – that you have to be prepared for. And during war times, commodities go up strongly,” said Faber.

"If you want to hedge against war, you don’t want to own derivatives in UBS and AIG, but you have to own them physically, like farmland and agricultural commodities. That is something to consider for you as a personal safety and hedge. You have to own some commodities," he added.

Long-Term Bonds and the End of Our World
by John Rubino

Nouriel Roubini warns that an asset bubble is building as money chases commodities. Asian countries are considering capital controls to stem the inflow of hot money. The Wall Street Journal reports that rare coins are soaring at auctions, with a single penny recently breaking the $1 million barrier. U.S. stocks and crude oil are up 60% and 105%, respectively, from their post-crash lows. And of course gold is at a record high.

Looks like the stimulus orgy worked: Speculators are back and scooping up pretty much everything in sight.

Yet long-term bonds are just sitting there, which isn’t what you’d expect at the beginning of another inflationary boom. Because bonds trade on inflationary expectations their yields should be rising and their prices falling. Why aren’t they?

One possible explanation is that the bond market doesn’t believe the new commodity bubble is for real, and expects a double-dip recession to send long-term rates even lower. That’s not unreasonable, given the bad recent U.S. housing news and the widely-anticipated commercial real estate bloodbath. So next year stocks tank, the economy contracts, and bonds are the place to be. Here’s blogger Mike Shedlock’s take on the coming deflation.

Another possibility is that some of the newly-created currency that’s not chasing commodities is being used to buy bonds. The following chart from Housing Doom shows that central banks have recently stepped up their purchases of U.S. Treasuries, while the Fed is loading up on mortgage backed securities (the Fed MBS line). Government paper is buying government and private sector paper, which is to say that the world’s central banks are monetizing their countries’ debt on an unprecedented scale. Historically this sort of thing has led to inflation.

For short-term traders this debate is not academic; choosing between these two polar-opposite outcomes is crucial. But in the long run it hardly matters: bonds — and the system that makes them so numerous — are toast.

If we get a double-dip recession, then calls for new, bigger stimulus plans from economists like Paul Krugmann and James Galbraith will become impossible to ignore. $10 trillion didn’t work, so we’ll do $20 trillion. $8,000 for each new home buyer wasn’t enough, so we’ll make it $20,000. Since it’s all just bits in a database that can be moved with a mouse click, the politicians and their bankers will keep upping the ante as long as the currency markets allow it. If this batch of incipient bubbles isn’t real, the next batch — or the next — will be.

As for what this means for bonds: Gold and oil (and rare coins and farmland) exist in limited quantities and can’t be created by governments, so they benefit from excessive money creation. But bonds are just pieces of paper that can be issued in ever-rising quantities by desperate governments. AND bonds pay a fixed amount of fiat currency each year, so the value of their payments falls along with the value of the currency in which they pay. Since the U.S. in particular has financed its recent deficits with mostly short-term paper that has to be rolled over frequently, the supply of new bonds will soar going forward.

At some point in the next year or two, long-term Treasuries thus become the short of the decade. Falling bond prices will push up interest rates on all loans tied to Treasuries. Home mortgages, business loans, even credit cards will go up, while consumer borrowing and spending will shrink.

And then it gets interesting. With bond yields spiking and currency values plunging, the Fed and other central banks will, for the first time since their creation, be impotent. Lowering short term rates (already near zero) will be ineffective, while buying more bonds with newly-created dollars will force the dollar lower, making bonds even less attractive to private sector buyers. At some point along the way it will dawn on not just the smart money but on everyone that the falcon can’t hear the falconer, that events are beyond the control of monetary autorities. And everyone will head for the exits at once.

That’s when the world as we know it — powerful central government, fiat currency, fractional reserve banking, global military empire, cradle-to-grave welfare — ends, and the debate over its replacement begins. As always, money will talk, which means those with gold and other real assets will have a seat at the table, and for the first time in a century Constitutional principals will get a fair hearing. Time to start re-reading the Federalist Papers.

MMF proširuje shemu zajmova na 600 milijardi dolara

Međunarodni monetarni fond danas je objavio da je vrijednost programa pomoći zemljama snažno pogođenima financijskom krizom uvećana na 600 milijardi dolara.

Kako je priopćeno, MMF-ovim ‘novim aranžmanima za pozajmice’ (NAB) pristalo je pristupiti dodatnih 13 zemalja. Time se pridružuju 26 zemalja koliko ih trenutno doprinosi NAB-u, čija je vrijednost prvotno ciljana u visini 500 milijardi dolara. MMF također želi povećati fleksibilnost toga programa kojeg čini čitav niz kreditnih aranžmana u sklopu kojeg sudionici po potrebi izdvajaju dodatna sredstva za MMF-ove zajmove.

"Postignuti dogovor o proširenju NAB-a označava važan trenutak za multilateralizam i za sam fond, što će pomoći MMF-ovoj učinkovitosti u odgovoru na krizu i jačanju međunarodne financijske arhitekture", kazao je MMF-ov izvršni direktor Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Konačnu odluku o povećanju NAB-a upravno bi vijeće MMF-a trebalo donijeti u narednim tjednima.

Svjetska kriza dovela je do znatnog rasta potražnje za MMF-ovom pomoći. Kako bi se osiguralo da MMF raspolaže dostatnim sredstvima za podmirenje potražnje, skupina 20 razvijenih i zemalja u razvoju G20 u rujnu je odlučila da se raspoloživa sredstva utrostruče u odnosu na razinu prije krize od oko 250 milijardi dolara.

Čelnici G20 u travnju su odlučili da će odmah raspoloživih 250 milijardi dolara od članica s vremenom biti uključeno u prošireni i fleksibilniji NAB, uvećan do visine oko 500 milijardi dolara.

(Hina/pd)

Bankruptcies spike 33%

The total number of bankruptcies filed in the third quarter surged 33% in 2009 and is at the highest level since 2005, according to data released Wednesday.
"The spike in bankruptcy filings for both consumers and businesses reflect the continuing effects of today’s weak economy," said ABI executive director Samuel Gerdano in a statement.

Ide to up,up