Inside Bob Prechter’s November 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist …
How to Identify the

Continuing and Looming

Deflationary Forces

Markets are most likely to turn when the fewest number of participants expect it.

That’s the essence of contrarian analysis, yet a contrarian approach is never enough to craft a successful market forecast. A high-confidence forecast demands more — like a terminal Elliott wave pattern, intense volume readings, screaming advance/decline ratios, and more.

Such was the case in July 2007, just after the Dow Industrials made a nominal all-time high. That’s when Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist said this: "Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position." Three months and a marginal new high later, the stock market began a bear market that erased more than a decade’s worth of gains.
In February 2009, Prechter closed the short recommendation — an astonishing 800 downside S&P points later. As for why he changed his stance then, his February Theorist made it clear:

The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late."

You know what followed. We’re now in mid-November; the move up from March became the biggest rally in more than five years. Yet the facts are these: Gold is the only commodity to reach an all-time high, the Dow Industrials the only stock index to see a new closing high on the year.
A seasoned technical analyst knows this is a classic "non-confirmation" — and Bob Prechter is a lot more than just seasoned. Here’s what he says in his brand-new November 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist:

Only the bluest of the blue chip markets in both the stock and the commodity sectors – i.e. the DJIA and gold – made significant new highs, while their lesser counterparts have so far all failed to confirm. This type of divergence in trends is the most traditional of all technical conditions warning of distribution."

The "experts" apparently think that a few months of financial chaos in late 2008-early 2009 was as bad as it’s going to get. They’d have you believe (hope?) that those few months is all it took to reverse a mania that was decades in the making.

I noticed a Reuter’s poll today. All the top banks were asked to provide their guess on just how undervalued the Chinese currency—yuan- was against the US dollar. The average guesstimate was about 20%. That’s about 20% lower than my guess would have been, but no matter. What was interesting was their guess about when the Chinese currency would actually become convertible.
Drumroll……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..2020!
Man, that’s a long time for the nut-job newsletter writers (guilty as charged, but not of this crime) to be shouting the “US dollar will disappear.” I told you about one
Black Swan Capital’s Currency Currents is strictly an informational publication and does not provide personalized or individualized investment or trading advice. Commodity futures and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for you. The money you allocate to futures or forex trading should be money that you can afford to lose.
But there is another, a guy at a yet another major newsletter firm actually has a 2-year target for dollar disappearance. Of course they know better—but it sells subscriptions. It’s amazing! His readers lap it up as if tablets were just brought down from the mountain top; I guess it goes to the point about investing: People want to be validated; at least novice types (and gold bugs). I think, thinking people want a good dose of skepticism, as John Ross discussed so well in yesterday’s issue.
Black Swan simply has a lot higher caliber of subscriber. We are thankful and fortunate.
Okay…next topic, it seems pressure is building for Asia to get serious about currency suppression, or the flip side, for the US to get serious about dollar dumping. This comes interestingly on the heels of more news which is eliciting that special “double-dip felling” deep down in our gut. Yo, Larry! Larry! Oh, yeah…Master Summers Sir! The US economy isn’t recovering the way you and your minion of neo-Keynesian cronies have told us it would.
What made us laugh out loud yesterday was President Obama’s warning about too much US debt. It was one of those “say what” moments.
President Obama—knock-knock—is anyone home up there or do you think we are just that stupid. Your economic team knows only one policy; it is to create more debt and soak small businesses and payoff lobbyists, and Wall Street, and….(sorry). Your team’s public debt policy will likely be the driver of US productivity for years to come, the unintended, yet foreseen by anyone not blinded by Keynesian cons, consequences of your efforts to stimulate productive capacity.
It is to laugh, but it is so painful to watch. No matter how many times you read General Theory you won’t find the answers. Do you mind sharing that with Master Larry? No one else seems to be brave enough to share that idea with the Man.
Three more years—Atlas is shrugging indeed.

Asked this question on our webinar about emerging market currencies yesterday: Why could the US dollar rally? My answer: A risk event. The bigger the event, the more the dollar rallies. There appears darn little on the horizon to suggest there is anything good fundamentally to move the dollar higher.

For the past year – since November 4, 2008, actually – I’ve thought about walking around wearing a T-shirt that reads:
Where’s your skepticism?
That way I could maybe get the majority’s brains turning a little bit. (I’ve thought about using “Got skepticism?” but figure milk is probably tired of getting ripped off over and over again.)
Not to belabor the point, but skepticism is the antithesis of consensus. And in the market, skepticism can be informative but it’s not necessarily the best approach to making money.
To paraphrase one of Jack’s favorite quotes about trading from Jesse Livermore:
“For a trader it is better to do right than be right.”

Don’t get me wrong – skepticism serves an important purpose of dispersing truth, or facts, or potentialities. And while the consensus serves a purpose too – signaling where the money is – it tends to mitigate the importance of truth, facts and potentialities.
“For a trader it is better to do right than be right.”

Sadly, though, those in bed with the consensus who emerge proudly claiming omniscience are those that are heard the best.
I mean, at a time like this, someone could shout:
“I’m 100% certain the US will experience hyper-inflation.”
Or …
“I don’t think that you’ll see gold below a USD 1000 per ounce probably ever again.”
Or …
“The sky is the limit.”
Wait a second – somebody has said all those things. His name is Marc Faber. (Sorry Marc – you and I both recognize the entertainment value of these little quips!)
In an era of unprecedented money-printing and official stimulus, why be skeptical of hyperinflation predictions?
And in a time when gold prices are making new all-time highs day after day, why be skeptical of the fact that the shiny yellow metal will never break below $1,000 an ounce ever again?
And why ask how high the sky is? Or why ask if there actually is a limit on rising gold prices?
You’re better off not being skeptical, right?
But the truth is, I think, that hyperinflation is not a certainty. Please, someone correct me if I’m wrong! In fact, deflation is still the bigger threat in the near-term, in my book; and by the time that threat or reality is eliminated things will be different and inflation may or may not spiral out of control.

And boy, will I be surprised if gold never breaks below $1,000 an ounce ever again. Could the global stabilizers not pull another rabbit or two out of their hats and effectively reduce the appeal of gold. Even a correction to the $900s will simply be a blip in the unbreakable and all-powerful uptrend of gold.
But am I alone here? People are buying up gold like the sky is the limit. The safety net gold offers to the imminent disappearance of all paper currency is a great story that people want to believe; right now it’s the consensus in that market.
There’s no denying the places that have made money in the recent past:
 Short the US dollar
 Long gold
 Long commodities
 Long stocks
 Long emerging markets
And there’s certainly potential that these investments will continue to deliver. And chances are you’ll hear about it all along the way.

But complacency combined with consensus can leave you vulnerable. I mean, you’re liable to get blindsided if you don’t possess a shred of skepticism when it comes to all the brightest stars telling you what everyone already knows.

http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/politika/vidosevic-nemamo-novca-ni-za-kamate,61642.html

10 States with Underemployment Rates of 20+ Percent. Manufacturing Sector Employs Same Number of Workers that we did in 1940.

The average American family must look at the current stock market rally as some kind of cruel joke. We have people anxiously waiting for government funds or paychecks to clear at the end of the month so they can wait outside of a Wal-Mart shopping center at midnight to buy food once their funds clear. We have nearly 36 million Americans on food stamps and another 27 million unemployed or underemployed. If this is the new recovery, many want very little to do with it.

It is hard to believe in this recovery because the bailout has gone to the financial sector and is reflected in hyper-inflated equity prices. As obvious as it seems, some people don’t make the connection that an unemployed American is a weaker consumer. Consumption as we all know is two-thirds of our economy. Therefore you would assume that investors would make this connection but that is not the case. The banks being the few with any sort of heavy government money, instead of lending to Americans, are once again gambling in the stock market casino. What a sad testimony to our crony capitalistic system that banks instead of believing in the average American, are deciding to double down on Wall Street and trying to recoup their 2008 losses. This on the pretense that banks needed money to get lending going again.

One thing that is clear is the employment situation is in a major funk. 10 states now have underemployment rates of over 20 percent. We are talking about Great Depression statistics here:
Vaš link

ova tema je izgleda prebacena na neki strani forum…. [undecid] ovdje nitko ne pise na hrvatski [huh] molim moderatora da se ovdje ubaci google prevoditelj engl-hrv ili da se ugasi ova tema….ovo vise nema smisla…..HVALA

Izvolite kolega
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Vrlo lako, čak ima NOVO!!! simultamo prevođenje,

Anonimno, 22.11.2009. u 02:05

Chapter 1: Illusions of Prosperity

During the final two decades of the twentieth century, the U.S. economy was the envy of the world. It created 30 million new jobs while Europe and Japan were creating virtually none. It imposed its technological and ideological will on huge sections of the global marketplace, and produced new millionaires the way a Ford plant turns out pickup trucks. U.S. stock prices rose twentyfold during this period, in the process convincing most investors that it would always be so. Toward the end, even the federal government seemed well run, accumulating surpluses big enough to shift the debate from how to allocate scarce resources to how long it would take to eliminate the federal debt.

As the coin of this brave new realm, the dollar became the world’s dominant currency. Foreign central banks accumulated dollars as their main reserve asset. Commodities like oil were denominated in dollars, and emerging countries like Argentina and China linked their currencies to the dollar in the hope of achieving U.S.-like stability. By 2000, there were said to be more $100 bills circulating in Russia than in the U.S.
But as the century ended, so did this extraordinary run. Tech stocks crashed, the Twin Towers fell, and Americans’ sense of omnipotence went the way of their nest eggs. As this is written in early 2008, three million fewer Americans are drawing paychecks. The federal government is borrowing $500 billion each year to finance the war on terror as well as an array of new or expanded social programs, and many parts of the financial system, including sub-prime mortgages, credit insurance, and municipal bonds, seem to be imploding.

The dollar, meanwhile, has become the world’s problem currency, falling in value versus other major currencies and plunging versus gold. The whole world is watching, scratching its collective head, and wondering what has changed. The answer, as will become clear in the next few chapters, is that everything has changed, and nothing has. The spectacular growth of the past two decades, it now turns out, was a mirage generated by the smoke and mirrors of rising debt and the willingness of the rest of the world to accept a flood of new dollars. Just how much the U.S. owes will shock you. But even more shocking is the fact that we’re still at it. Like a family that has maintained its lifestyle by maxing out a series of credit cards, America is at the point where new debt goes to pay off the old rather than to create new wealth. Hence the past few years’ slow growth and steady loss of jobs.

So why say that nothing has changed? Because today’s problems are new only in terms of recent U.S. history. A quick scan of world history reveals them to be depressingly familiar. All great societies pass this way eventually, running up unsustainable debts and printing (or minting) currency in an increasingly desperate attempt to maintain the illusion of prosperity. And all, eventually, find themselves between the proverbial devil and deep blue sea: Either they simply collapse under the weight of their accumulated debt, as did the U.S. and Europe in the 1930s, or they keep running the printing presses until their currencies become worthless and their economies fall into chaos.

This time around, governments the world over have clearly chosen the second option. They’re cutting interest rates, boosting spending, and encouraging the use of modern financial engineering techniques to create a tidal wave of credit. And history teaches that once in motion, this process leads to an inevitable result: Fiat (i.e., government-controlled) currencies will become ever less valuable, until most of us just give upon them altogether. These are strong words, we know. But by the time you’ve finished the next two chapters we think you’ll agree that they are, unfortunately, quite accurate.

Vaš linkhttp://www.dollarcollapse.com/site/chapter1.asp[

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Vrlo lako, čak ima NOVO!!! simultamo prevođenje,
[/quote]
nisi me shvatio kolega….uopce me ne zanimaju te copy paste prepiske…stranih drukera i gurua….imamo ih dovoljno na drugim temama…INACE ZAOBILAZIM OVU TEMU ,SAMO SAM NAPISAO OSVRT

Gospodine Inverter dajte nam prevedite vaše cijenjeno ime na hrvatski da i ostali saznaju što to znači.
Hvala

A inače, engleski jezik je službeni jezik cjelokupne financijske industrije. Žao mi je ako netko ne zna engleski, ali ako je tako to samo znači da je prikraćen za mnoge vrsne tekstove.
Iako može pričekati par dana da mu ih prevedu novinari poslovnog, seebiza, businessa i ostalih medija.

Footprints of a Market Crash
by Magnus Ekervik

Asset markets around the world have been propelled higher from fiscal stimulus packages, record low interest rates and money printing. This type of government action can push markets higher in the short term, but to create long term growth bank lending has to increase along with rising consumption and job creation, none of which has happened. Actually bank lending is still contracting, unemployment is rising and consumption is in decline.

If the recovery is as strong as many investors believe why haven’t we seen rising revenues together with the rising profits? It´s because profit increases are mostly the result of cost cutting and layoffs none of which creates long term growth. For the recovery to gain traction we need to see sales boosted from higher consumption. The problem is that consumption is still falling why I believe this recovery will fail when the stimulus fades.

In my July essay I made a call for a stock market crash during the summer or early fall. That call was a bit premature, now however there are crash footprints in stock indexes, bond markets, commodities and precious metals. Everywhere I look I can see bubbles forming from this global cheap money policy.

All major asset markets seem to be topping in synchronized fashion. We have a major 20 months non confirmation between gold and silver and a two month non confirmation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, there is also a non confirmation between the primary indexes and the secondary indexes like the Small Cap 600 Index, Russel 2000 Index and the KBW Bank Index. These are all signs of distribution and topping behavior.

Market breadth has contracted for several months and transaction volumes have decreased as the rally has pushed higher, both are signs that the market rally is losing steam.