Samo mala napomena.Na moja početnička pitanja može dogovoriti i bilo tko drugi tko zna, nije vezano samo na gospodina Vipyia.Pa tko god ima pet minuta vremena neka slobodno razjasni moje osobne dileme?Doista su velike………
Zauzvrat ću vam pustiti dobar članak o prinosu na obveznice i zašto postaje negativan, te kad se to zadnji put dogodilo!
OECD: Kraj krize u Americi i Aziji
Organizacija za ekonomsku suradnju i razvoj (OECD) očekuje da će se ekonomska situacija u svijetu 2010. godine znatno poboljšati u svim svjetskim regijama.
Procjenjuje se da će države članice, među kojima su i SAD i Velika Britanija, povećati ekonomski rast za 1,9 posto za sljedeću godinu, no OECD upozorava kako se kriza neće moći prevladati bezbolno. Bitno je da države kao što su Velika Britanija predlože detaljan plan kojim će smanjiti strahove ulagača te stvoriti stabilnu javnu financijsku politiku.
Najveća prijetnja ekonomskoj stabilnosti je nezaposlenost koja najviše prijeti bogatim zemljama. Za Sjedinjene Američke Države procjenjuje se porast broja nezaposlenih do sljedeće godine kada će brojke, po prognozama stručnjaka, ponovno opadati.
Za Europsku uniju prognoze nisu pozitivne kao za Sjevernu Ameriku. Procjenjuje se da će se broj nezaposlenih u Europi konstantno povećavati sve do 2012. godine. Ekonomski stručnjaci smatraju da će Kina doživjeti veliki ekonomski uzlet, jednako kao i Indija. Procjenjuje se da bi te dvije zemlje mogle ostvariti ekonomski rast od deset, odnosno sedam posto u sljedećoj godini, a pozitivni se razvoj predviđa i za Brazil i Rusiju.
SUDECI PO VOLUMENU I VOLATILNOSTI ,DEPRESIJA JE POCELA [sad]
[lol] care [thumbsup]
The Weak Dollar Was Supposed to Fix Everything
The inflation redux plan from the Fed and Washington is based on zero interest rates, massive deficits and quantitative easing, which are designed to bring down the value of the U.S. dollar and create inflation. That is the truth, despite promises from Treasury Secretary Geithner that he really means it this time when he says the U.S. has a strong dollar policy–the irony being, that he says this while concurrently begging the Chinese to allow the dollar to fall vs. the Renminbi. But their hopes placed in a lower dollar are woefully misguided and all that is being accomplished is to put into place the same conditions that brought the global financial system to its knees.
Messrs Geithner and Bernanke have been successful in bringing down the value of our currency. In fact, many of the negative factors that were in place before the global economic meltdown occurred have returned in full force.
The trade deficit for September surged 18% to $36.5 billion. That gap was the largest since the beginning of 2009 and largely due to imports surging 5.8% to $168.4 billion, which was the biggest increase since 1993. The news must have been greeted with cheers in D.C. After all, the deficit would mean more dollar weakness and signaled the return of the borrowing and spending consumer. But the news also meant that the strategy of balancing trade by destroying the dollar was not based on sound economics. The U.S. dollar fell from 78.5 on the DXY to about 77 during the month of September. In fact, the US dollar has lost more than 16% of its value since March of this year. If a weak dollar discouraged imports and boosted exports, then why did imports surge by the most in 16 years?
Sorry Ben and Tim, the so called benefits of a falling dollar didn’t materialize as planned. That’s because the inflation you created to bring the dollar down caused the price of goods made in the US to become more expensive. Therefore, foreign exporters couldn’t really afford to increase the purchase of American made goods even though their currencies strengthened.
The Treasury and the Fed have also able to bring risk appetites back to 2007 levels. The massive increase in money printing and government guarantees has reduced credit spreads to razor thin margins. The Libor OIS spread measures the spread between the London Interbank Offered Rate for dollars over three months and what traders expect the Fed’s Funds target rate will be during the term of the contract. The gap fell to .1 percentage point this quarter and according to Bloomberg, it was below the average between December 2001 and July 2007. The record high Libor-OIS Spread was 3.64% in September of 2008.
Likewise, the Ted Spread is back to the "good old days" as well. Last November the gap between the 3 month Treasuries and 3 month LIBOR was 199 bps. Today it is just 21 bps. But the mispricing of risk that helped bring the financial sector down in 2007 and 2008 is not boosting bank lending to private industry. Bank lending is plummeting for the creation of capital goods and new businesses. However, Money of Zero Maturity is up 8% YOY. That’s because banks are lending to the U. S. government, which is the only insatiable entity for borrowing that still exists.
So the benefits of a crumbling currency have yet to materialize. However, the ravages of pursuing such a flawed policy have started to arrive. The price of oil has soared and gold is setting new highs every day. Credit spreads are indicating that investors are mispricing risk yet again and the ballooning trade deficit indicates that we once again believe we can consume much more than we produce.
The stock market is dancing on top of a $2 trillion monetary base and that latent liquidity has sent commodities higher, while the dollar sinks. My guess is that Wall Street and Washington believes things are getting much better. But I’ve seen this movie already and I don’t like
Over the last several months, we have been very fortunate to read the missives of Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist and strategist, David Rosenberg. Aside from a stellar career at Merrill Lynch, Mr. Rosenberg gained notoriety for his early "call" on the recession that began in December, 2007. Now Mr. Rosenberg is gaining notoriety as the last bear standing. Despite a 50% run in the S&P500 and a growing chorus that the economy has turned a corner, Mr. Rosenberg has been steadfast in his resolve:
"This rally is based on a lot of hope that we are going to see a V-shaped economic recovery in the U.S. The S&P 500 is priced for 4% real GDP growth. We don’t see it."
I am empathetic towards Mr. Rosenberg as I too have had a cautionary view towards equities since mid-May. Being cautious while the market goes up day after day and not seeing what everyone else is seeing (sic) is very frustrating. But leave it to Mr. Market. One minute you are a hero for calling the recession, the next minute you are a goat for missing the recovery. The market beast can be very humbling.
But truth be told, Mr. Rosenberg could be right in the end, and I believe we are now approaching that juncture in the markets that could prove him right. In essence, this is his last chance.
In particular, there is a growing divergence between the 10 year Treasury yield, which is falling, and the equity markets, which are rising.
In "Long Term Treasury Yields: Someone Is Going To Be Wrong", which I wrote on August 26, 2009, I stated:
"the divergence between lower yields – a sign of economic weakness – and higher equity prices – a sign of economic strength – will not persist for long. Most importantly, it was the failed signal in June, 2002 that coincided with a 25% plus drop in equities over the next two months. It should be noted that the current set up in Treasury yields and likely failure is exactly the same as in 2002!"
So why is this Mr. Rosenberg’s last chance? Treasury yields are falling (and likely to go lower) and during equity bull markets that is a good thing. But if we are still in a bear market, then falling Treasury yields is a bad sign for equities. And this is the first time since the March, 2009 bottom that Treasury yields are falling. So Mr. Rosenberg still has a chance of being proven right.
Ovo nisam očekivao od Roubinija, ovako teške vijesti.
Stiže drugi krug.
Roubini Sees Asset-Bubble as Money Chases Commodities
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini said investors are “chasing commodities” and there is a risk of new asset bubbles emerging as stock markets and commodity prices surge amid record-low lending rates.
“There is a beginning of a bubble in financial markets,” with “asset prices going higher,” Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said in a speech in Lisbon today.
Equity markets around the world have surged in recent months, with the MSCI World Index up 25 percent so far this year and by around 66 percent since its March 9 low. The price of crude oil has jumped 70 percent since the beginning of the year to about $76 a barrel in New York.
Part of the increase in oil prices is “money chasing commodities,” Roubini said. “There is a risk that oil can rise to $80, $90 or $100 because of speculative demand” that doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals, he said.
Vaš link
Pripremite se za još jedan globalni ekonomski kolaps
U izvješću “Najgori dužnički scenarij” analitičari banke upozoravaju da su državni planovi spašavanja rezultirali time da su privatni dugovi samo prebačeni na leđa države, ali problem velike zaduženosti i dalje je tu. Ukupna zaduženost u svim razvijenim zemljama i dalje je vrlo visoka, bez obzira na to je li riječ o privatnom ili državnom dugu.
U idućim godinama ona će se morati smanjiti. -Stoga nitko sa sigurnošću ne može reći jesmo li izbjegli mogućnost globalnog ekonomskog kolapsa, navodi se u izvješću koje su izradili analitičari francuske banke Société Générale, a citira ga britanski Telegraph.
Pad cijene nafte
No, riječ je samo o istraživanju mogućih opasnosti. U najgorem slučaju, dolar bi mogao dodatno oslabjeti, a vrijednost dionica mogla bi opet pasti na najniže razine. I cijene nekretnina mogle bi se srušiti, a cijena nafte 2010. bi mogla opet iznositi 50 dolara po barelu.
Nadajmo se samo da će se Crobex i slijedeći put zaustaviti na 1250 bodova