Šuker: Prodaja obveznica nije dodatno zaduženje već uspjeh

M
inistar financija Ivan Šuker odbacio je danas u Hrvatskome saboru ocjenu zastupnika SDP-a Gordana Marasa da prodaja hrvatskih obveznica u vrijednosti 1,5 milijarde američkih dolara na međunarodnom financijskom tržištu ne predstavlja uspjeh, već dodatno zaduženje te naglasio kako je tom prodajom Hrvatska uspješno izašla na zahtjevno međunarodno financijsko tržište.

Maras je ministra Šukera upitao do kada misli zaduživati hrvatske građane i time se hvaliti, budući da je, kaže, prodajom obveznica dodatno zadužio Hrvatsku i njezine građane. "Do kada mislite zaduživati zemlju i time se hvaliti?", upitao je Maras ministra Šukera i upozorio da Hrvatska ima 41 milijardu eura inozemnog duga, te da svaki njezin građanin duguje 10.000 eura. Hrvatskoj uporno pada kreditni rejting, a kamate su dva puta više, no drugdje u Europi, upozorio je Maras u ‘aktualnom prijepodnevu’.

Kada bi to što vi govorite bila istina, niti jedna međunarodna financijska institucija Hrvatskoj ne bi posudila svoje novce, odgovorio je Šuker i dodao da u 41 milijardi duga nije samo dug Vlade, već i tvrtki i drugih subjekata, a da veliki dio zaduženja koje je napravila sadašnja Vlada otpada na vraćanje dugova iz razdoblja vlade Ivice Račana.

"Vi prešućujete da je Hrvatska uspješno izašla na međunarodno financijsko tržište", odgovorio je Marasu i dodao da je potražnja za hrvatskim obveznicama bila znatno veća od ponude. "Najveći fondovi Amerike su najbolji odgovor na vaše pitanje, jer to osjetljivo tržište je prihvatilo hrvatske obveznice", naglasio je.

Šuker je dodao kako bi Hrvatska imala daleko bolje uvjete za plasman svojih obveznica, da je već danas u EU, te je poručio kako je upravo to razlog zbog kojeg zastupnici u Saboru "moraju podržati arbitražni sporazum" sa Slovenijom.

Kosor: Teško je prognozirati kada ćemo isplivati iz krize

Izlazak iz krize, uz rast standarda i smanjenje nezaposlenosti, bit će temelj rada Vlade u idućoj godini, poručila je danas premijerka Jadranka Kosor, odbacivši u Hrvatskom saboru SDP-ove prozivke da se rad njezine Vlade do sada svodio tek na rezanje plaća i povećanje poreza.

Mirela Holy (SDP) je u aktualnom prijepodnevu prozvala premijerku da je "građanima ispraznila džepove", da su građani, u nešto više od četiri mjeseca koliko je Kosor na čelu Vlade, od Vlade dobili samo manje plaće, harač (krizni porez) i povećanje PDV-a. Holy je upozorila i da je u zadnjih godinu dana za 15 posto pao standard građana, a da 500 ljudi svakih mjesec dana ostaju bez posla, upitavši premijerku ima li Vlada ijedno konkretno rješenje za zaustavljanje pada standarda i rasta nezaposlenosti.

"Dakako da Vlada ima (rješenja)", odgovorila joj je Kosor, ističući da sve što Vlada radi ide upravo u tom smjeru. Ponovila je da podaci o tome da se u drugom tromjesečju ove godine zaustavio pad BDP-a (na 6,3 posto za razliku od prvog tromjesečja kada je bio 6,7 posto) svjedoče o naznakama stagnacije krize. "No, kada ćemo isplivati na površinu jako je teško prognozirati", poručila je premijerka.

Najavila je da će SDP-ovu zastupnicu pismeno izvijestiti o nizu mjera koje Vlada poduzima za izlazak iz krize, među kojima i o novim projektima Ministarstva gospodarstva, kao što je poticanje stanogradnje i prodaje stanova.

"Činjenica da ću danas za novog ministra gospodarstva predložiti osobu koja duboko razumije probleme gospodarstva dana, pokazuje kojim smjerom želimo ići", kazala je Kosor, izrazivši nadu da će SDP poduprijeti prijedlog da novi ministar postane Đuro Popijač. Nezadovoljna odgovorom, Holy je prozvala Vladu da se "češlja dok Hrvatska gori", odnosno da zbog njezine nesposobnosti Hrvatska "tone sve dublje, dok ostale zemlje u regiji polako izlaze iz krize".

Silvana Hrelju (HSU) zanimalo je kada će i na koji način Vlada riješiti problem umirovljenika koji su korisnici drugog stupa mirovinskog osiguranja, a koji, upozorio je, sa štednjom u tom stupu zaostaju za 30 posto s onima koji su korisnici samo prvog stupa. "Nemojte mi samo reći da ćete formirati radnu skupinu ili da su ljudi sami odgovorni za svoj izbor", poručio je premijerki, koja mu je na to uzvratila kako bi mu mogla i tako odgovoriti, ali da to ne želi.

"Da ste ostali u vladajućoj koaliciji imali bi cjeloviti uvid u to što radimo", poručila je Hrelji, najavivši da u Vladi užurbano rade na modelu održivog sustava mirovinskog osiguranja. "Mogli ste ostati u vladajućoj koaliciji i pripomoći u tome, ali, eto, niste pa ćemo to učiniti sami", dodala je.

(Hina/pd)

Country at a Crossroads
by John Browne

The U.S. economy is in uncertain times. Analysts are split between those seeing recovery and those fearing a second downturn. This confusion is being echoed in the highest levels of government as President Obama simultaneously speaks about the need for more federal spending and warns of the dangers of increased debt. As the volatile markets indicate, investors are not only confused – they are seriously concerned.

The country appears to be going through a period of buyer’s remorse over the election of Barack Obama. The majority cobbled together by the President one year ago included the Democratic base, independents hoping for "change," and many disaffected Republicans betrayed by the Bush Administration’s big-government neoconservatism. It is unlikely that most of these voters favored an overt push toward socialism; however, this is what they have received. As the ‘tea parties’ illustrate, voters are not only confused – they are seriously concerned.

These concerns are justified. The Administration’s hard-left turn was evident from the outset. Ignoring expert advice to spend on job-creating infrastructure, Obama spent wildly on entitlements. Now, with rising grassroots discontent, a falling currency, and threats to America’s AAA credit rating, there is some evidence that the Administration is trying to hedge its bets through tough talk. Yet, they still have not taken any tough action. As their gold stockpiling highlights, foreign governments are not only confused – they are seriously concerned.

Over at the Federal Reserve, no such soul-searching appears to be underway. Its chairman, Ben Bernanke, is clearly intent on avoiding deleveraging. He has charted a course of massive liquidity injections, financed by hitherto unimaginable levels of monetary inflation. He has even attempted to coordinate these expansionary policies on an international basis.

For the moment, the cheap liquidity has saved Wall Street. To the delight of the Goldman Sachs, et al., the Fed has created a boom in financial assets, including equities, bonds and commodities. These rallies have stimulated a nearly universal belief that the worst has past. This feel-good attitude could be clearly seen on a recent cover of The Economist that read: "After the Storm – How to Make the Best of the Recovery."

But, to many people, life looks increasingly desperate. Official U.S. figures admit to some 15 million unemployed. Despite the massive stimulus packages, American consumers are still in shock and not spending as they once did. Already, the fall in consumer demand is larger than that of the early 1930’s. The authorities now face a moment of truth: admit that they don’t have the power to bring the consumer back to life or redouble their efforts, consequences be damned.

The whole world awaits the decision, which could indicate a wild inflation, a major recession or the worst of both.

Should the Administration accept, or even be forced to accept, an ultimately healthy deleveraging, a deep recession would ensue. Entitlements would have to be dramatically reduced while taxes remain unreasonably high. Otherwise, the federal government could face outright default. Barring a popular revolt, this course would lead to a sustainable recovery.

On the other hand, if the government continues to run the printing presses, as seems far more likely, hyperinflation will become a distinct possibility. While this may create the appearance of recovery, with rising stocks and less short-term unemployment, average citizens will notice a sharp decline in their standard of living. It will get harder and harder to ‘make ends meet’ as wages increase less than the cost of everyday goods.

The hyperinflation scenario will likely buy the Administration a little more time, but would eventually give way to the worst of all possible worlds: hyperinflationary depression. Here, America would feel a deep r

Imam ja sve odgovore
Često
Ne
Ne ću moći do njih
Slaba
Navodno 50.000 eura
Pojeo vuk magarca
Prilično

I mene zanima

Jesam li prošao test?
[bye]
[/quote]

Zemljak, šta ga uvi brate. Lepo čoveko odgovori direktno.

Mnogo često razmišljam i obliva me ladan znoj noču.
Šta bi bio siguran. Ima da nas izrade samo tako. Čekaju neki izgovor pa da navale.
Ako banka zapadne u probleme onda bi to moglo da se tretira ko toksični aset u kučnom budžetu.
Nema dostupnosti. Neko če da napravi vilu sa tim para ili nam se javi sa nekog ostrva.
Može da država jamči šta oče. Ali ko če da jamči za državu?
Kako misliš šta ako država i HNB nemaju para? Pa nemaju ih več sada. Ko da če da ih imaju sutra.
Banke sigurne? Ma hajte molim vas!

http://www.businessinsider.com/bubbles-in-the-making-2009-9

http://www.businessinsider.com/socgen-tells-clients-heres-how-to-bet-on-total-global-collapse-2009-11

http://www.businessinsider.com/socgen-prepare-yourself-for-the-worst-case-scenario-2009-11

Only a New Credit Bubble (that isnt coming) Staves off Deflation
by Christopher Galakoutis

The following is an excerpt from a commentary made available to MurkyMarkets.com subscribers on November 6, 2009.

The next issue I wanted to write about in this post is this whole notion of ballooning reserves at the Fed, and how we get to hyperinflation if this money were to ever be lent out and multiplied across the economy. Reserves might have gone from 10 Billion in August 2008, to about 1 Trillion today, but in fact, this money is not being lent out – it is simply sitting there at the Fed, earning interest.

Many economists, as well as government officials, have been pounding the tables demanding that banks lend this money out in efforts to support the economy and get it jump-started. This is the side that smells the deflationary threat, and understands that deflation could be delayed so long as a new credit bubble is inflated.

But that is not happening, as anyone who has attempted to obtain a loan lately would attest to the difficulty they are encountering, whether it be for business or a home mortgage/refinance.

Those arguing the other side say that if this money were to be lent out, it would lead to high levels of inflation that would end up hurting both the economy and the dollar. That is the inflation scenario that folks fear, hence the calls for the Fed to remove this excess liquidity from the system sooner rather than later.

Obviously, taking on additional debt, in the hope that it would solve the original problem of too much debt, is not the answer. As I have written in previous posts, the answer will involve a long-term structural change in this economy.

If I am right and we are witnessing an unfolding deflationary collapse brought about by a collapsing debt bubble, the only avenue that avoids such an outcome in the immediate future would be to blow up a new debt bubble –, i.e., bail out, as it were, the collapsing debt bubble with one of equal or greater magnitude that takes its place.

But a new credit boom, as one would imagine, not only doesn’t appear to be happening, but might not even be possible. After all, how do you create a new debt bubble to replace back-to-back, most improbable, epic stock & real estate bubbles from the last 10 years alone?

Those two bubbles had massive participation at the retail level, and those folks have been burned and are in intensive care. What the country experienced in the fall of 2008 through March earlier this year was something the majority never thought possible. As noted above, banks are not lending. Credit conditions are tight. It seems to me those in the hyperinflation camp yelling at the top of their lungs are wasting their efforts on a phantom threat. Banks will simply not lend money in this environment, but even if they wanted to, the demand is not there in the way it was. This isn’t the roaring anything’s. Those years are behind us.

Let us not forget that gold went from $250 to $1000 in this decade because of the ballooning of credit, which blew up bubble after bubble, and as a result weakened the US dollar. In order for gold to go to the moon, as some are expecting, it will need a catalyst of equal and/or greater proportion to take it there.

If there is no new credit bubble that would do that, the only other means by which it can get to much higher levels is outright money printing, or a total loss of confidence in paper currencies altogether and the US dollar in particular.

As discussed last post, I don’t believe the US will resort to outright money printing as per Weimar Germany in the 1920’s or more recently Zimbabwe. The bond market has a gun to Ben Bernanke’s temple, and is telling him in no uncertain terms that if he were to drop dollar bills from helicopters, he would get his head blown off. Think of it as the bond market staring down the Fed and telling it that the dollar had better start behaving like gold.

All sides agree we will see deflation in terms of gold. What happens in nominal terms is the big question. A bond market up until now going along with Fed actions is not signaling that the Fed has or will lose control of the dollar. In fact, it is signaling the opposite. Bernanke’s SAT score was 1590 out of 1600. He’s no dummy. He knows who his bosses are, and he will do what they ask. He and the government tipped their hands in that respect during the crisis, when they chose who they chose to bail out in a massive way, while the first tent cities where going up across the country.

That leaves a loss of confidence in all paper currencies and specifically a collapse of the US dollar as the only other trigger that takes gold to much higher levels. But that would also mean the US’s friends and allies turning their backs on this country at a time when it could be argued the US is most in need of their continued support.

It would mean the world turning its back on a new administration and a new president loved the world over. And whom might the world have to deal with next, should a collapse of the US dollar ravage the economy and Obama in 2012?

If the world turning its back, and dumping the dollar in a coordinated effort, is the scenario that plays out, then holding dollars will prove to be a bad move. But I don’t see that scenario playing out. Sure, at some point foreign creditors will tighten the screws on the US, and it won’t be able to borrow as much as it has been. That is the day of reckoning I have written about.

That is when the US will be forced to make the tough choices. That is, cut deficits and perhaps negotiate repayment terms on its debts. I suppose those are the key issues that all of these arguments rest on.

Will the US make the tough choices and retain some semblance of self-respect, or will it simply print money and go the way of Zimbabwe?

I would argue that anyone who believes there is no difference between a Zimbabwe and the US — in that the US takes the easy way out and literally prints greenbacks to pay off creditors — simply does not understand how the world works, and should they be investing in anticipation of such an outcome, will be looking at substantial loses in the near future.

Geithner: ‘The credit crunch is not over’

One day after Goldman Sachs’ CEO apologized for his bank’s role in the financial meltdown, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner called on the nation’s financiers to step up and do more to fix the damage they helped cause.
"This credit crunch is not over," Geithner at a small business financing forum in Washington hosted by the Treasury. "It may feel dramatically better for large companies, but it is not over for small businesses across the country."

Bojim se da se užurbano radi priprema terena za objavu ponovnog ulaska u recesiju u prvom kvartalu 2010. jer je očigledno da će četvrti 2009. biti worse than expected.
Double dip je sada očigledno izvjestan a mislim da vam je jasno što slijedi kad sixpackjoe to shvati

Jeste i meni se nekako čini da ova tema nije bez veze. Depresija se sve češče može da vidi u raznim naslovima:

http://www.bankamagazine.hr/Naslovnica/Vijesti/Hrvatska/tabid/102/View/Details/ItemID/55526/ttl/Dolar-ne-smije-pasti/Default.aspx

Vidim da me se na neki način proziva pa da to malo razjasnim. Vipy vi ste korisnik sa dugotrajnim iskustvom, sa odličnim referencama i imate moj respect! A eto ja kao početnik neke stvari ne znam pa pitam, nemojte se ljutiti na mene zbog toga.Ako nije bed imam par pitanja za Vas;

1)Kad ste unovčili dobitke na burzi?
2)Ako ste ih unovčili 2007. ili 2008.g što ste učinili s novcem?
3)Ako ste ga položili u neku od banaka, da li je to bilo zbog priloga na TV?
4)Da li ste novac, koji ste položili u banku, oročili?
5)Ako ste ga oročili, da li je to bio kunsko ili devizno oročenje?
6)Ako je devizno oročenje, zašto ste se odlučili baš za njega?
7)Kad vam istekne rok oročenja što ćete s njim?

Eto nadam se da ne tražim previše…

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Unchanged at 505,000 (Update2)
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By Shobhana Chandra

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at a 10-month low last week, a sign firings are letting up as the economy recovers.

Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 505,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped.

The loss of 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the biggest drop of any postwar economic slump, makes an acceleration in firings less likely as consumers begin to spend. A rebound in hiring may take longer to develop as companies have ample room to boost hours for current employees before taking on additional staff.

“The labor market is improving, but at a glacial pace,” said Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, who had forecast claims would fall to 503,000. “People are having a hard time finding a job as companies remain wary of the economic recovery. We expect it will be a jobless recovery.”

Jobless claims were estimated to increase to 504,000 from 502,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 42 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 485,000 to 550,000.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.7 percent at 8:49 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 3.34 percent.

Due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 26, the Labor Department said it will issue the next claims report on Nov. 25.

Survey Week

Today’s numbers represent claims from the survey week for nonfarm payrolls, and will be closely watched for signals on job losses in November, economists said. There were 531,000 claims filed in last month’s survey week.

The Labor Department will release the November jobs report on Dec. 4. The economy lost 190,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent, the highest level since 1983.

The report showed the four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 514,000 last week, the lowest level in a year, from 520,500.

Continuing claims fell by 39,000 in the week ended Nov. 7 to 5.61 million. They were forecast to drop to 5.59 million.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments jumped by about 119,000 to 4.16 million in the week ended Oct. 31.

Benefits Extended

President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 signed into law a plan to extend jobless benefits, expand a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, and provide tax refunds to money-losing companies. The measure also gives jobless people as many as 20 additional weeks of unemployment assistance.

A Labor Department official said today’s figures don’t reflect the new extension and it may take until mid December for the complete readings to become available.

The President has also announced plans to convene a jobs summit at the White House next month.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 4.3 percent in the week ended Nov. 7.

Forty-eight states and territories reported an increase in claims, while five reported a decrease. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth — measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report — slows.

Additional Firings

Electronic Arts Inc., the second-larg11/19est video-game publi

SUDECI PO VOLUMENU I VOLATILNOSTI ,DEPRESIJA JE POCELA [sad]