The other question to be answered for all three countries is that of political will. If as is certainly the case in Britain, deficits at the current levels will lead to default (albeit not for some years since the country’s public debt is still quite low), then to avoid default tough decisions must be taken. Britain is in poor shape in this respect. Its current prime minister, Gordon Brown, is largely responsible for the underlying budget problem, having overspent during the boom years, largely on added bureaucracy rather than on anything productive or value-creating. However, the opposition Conservatives, likely to take power next spring, are led by a center-leftist with a background in public relations and no discernable backbone or principles.

Britain has a history of such leaders, which it has managed to survive – the ineffable Harold Macmillan, in particular, who wanted to abolish the Stock Exchange and contemplated nationalizing the banks when they raised interest rates, was a man of outlook and temperament very similar to David Cameron’s. Macmillan was notoriously prone to soft options that postponed economic problems, firing his entire Treasury team in pursuit of soft options in 1958 and leaving behind an appalling legacy of inflationary bubble on his retirement in 1963. If Cameron is truly like Macmillan, his government’s response to economic and financial disaster will be one of wriggle rather than confrontation. With neither party providing solutions to an economic crisis, the British public is likely to discover that, unlike in the crisis of 1976, no solutions will be found. Default (doubtless disguised as with Argentina as "renegotiation") would in that case inevitably follow.

The United States is in somewhat better shape than Britain. Its deficit is somewhat lower, at 11.9% of GDP in calendar 2009, although its debt level is higher if you include the direct debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as you should. It also has lower overall levels of public spending, although spending is rising rapidly. Furthermore, it has a much more diverse economy and a healthier real estate market, so that further likely downturns in California and Manhattan real estate and the financial services sector can be easily overcome.

U.S. pundits like to whine about the impending deficits in social security and health-care, but the former is easily overcome by adjusting the retirement age while the latter could be greatly mitigated by simple cost-containment measures, such as limiting trial lawyer depredations, making the state pay for the "emergency room" mandate to treat the indigent and allowing interstate competition for health insurance. All those changes would be politically difficult, but they are clearly visible and involve no damaging cuts in vital services, unlike the changes that would probably be necessary in Britain.

The other U.S. advantage is political: it has an alternative to overspending. Last Tuesday’s election results were a useful shot across the bows of the overspending consensus that had developed in both the Bush and Obama administrations (as well as among the ineffable barons of Congress) since 2007. Whereas voter concern about spiraling deficits and public spending has no satisfactory outlet in Britain, it can now express itself clearly in the U.S., producing either a sharp change of policy by the current administration and Congress or a change of administration in 2012. Since the likelihood of a reversal of policy towards sound budgetary management is greater in the U.S. than in Britain, the probability of eventual default is less.

Japan has already had its change of government, throwing out the faction of the Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) that regarded politics as the art of creating pointless infrastructure. Unfortunately, the Japanese electorate, faced in August with a no-good-choices problem similar to that of U.S. voters last year and British voters next spring, replaced a l

Japan does however have a couple of advantages that may enable it to avoid default. First, its public debt carries very low interest rates, mostly below 2% per annum, and is owned almost entirely by its own citizens. What’s more, state-owned entities such as the now un-privatized Postal Bank lend vast amounts of money to the government, acting as conduits to the less efficient bits of the public sector in the same way as do China’s state-owned banks. This is appallingly bad for the efficiency of the economy and for living standards, but it postpones default and makes it less likely.

Second, it’s not inevitable that the LDP’s wasteful infrastructure spending will simply be replaced by wasteful social spending. Finance minister Hirohisa Fujii is reputed to be a budgetary hard-liner. Further, at least part of the DPJ’s spending will take the form of handouts to families with children. Those may increase domestic consumption compared to exports and thereby balance the Japanese economy better, increasing its growth potential marginally. Nevertheless, since Japan’s public debt is currently around 200% of GDP, Japan is much closer to the default precipice than either the U.S. or Britain. Thus, while the better structure of Japan’s economy and its debt make Japan’s probability of default lower than Britain’s, it’s likely that if both countries defaulted, Japan would do so first.

We have not experienced a debt default by a major economy since the 1930s. That three such defaults are currently conceivable indicates both the severity of the current downturn and the wrong-headedness of the policies taken to address it. If it happens, a major sovereign debt default of this kind will cause the seizure of global capital markets, prolonging downturn for a decade or more.

We’d all better hope the urge for fiscal responsibility hits London, Washington and Tokyo pretty damn soon.

@fedya

prije svega pitanje je kada su počeli shortati, ja vjerujem da ti podaci nisu update, što znači da mogu biti od prije par mjeseci, jer ne vjerujem da bi samo tako lako podaci bili toliko javni [bye]

Ali kolega Valentine ako je Fedya uočio taj short selling budite sigurni da ga je i uočio g. Novoselac. Šta mislite zašto AZ šorta u zadnje vrijeme?

To su javni podaci pod 13F za investicijske fondove itd. i koriste podatke zadnjeg dana trećeg kvartala.
I još jedna stvar Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs Michael Sherwood je prije tri dana prodao 20 000 komada GS dionica po 177,43$

Ma trebalo mu je za jahtu, nije to ništa strašno, vjerovatno neki Bayliner!

Ma bitno da nije brodare. Kada vidim na listi ULPL tada ću i ja prodati.
Sretno njima sa shorterima!

"They’re assuming debt levels can go up forever, without putting that in any sort of reality context." But that rules out the black swan, which is "what happens if people don’t want to buy your debt."

Panzer thinks we may see hyper inflation as the share of U.S. outlays relative to the deficit are about 40%. "It may not be such a good idea — even though the Krugmans of the world think it is — to spend unlimited amounts of money without thinking through the potential consequences."

On the next financial bubbles:

I’m a very long term bull on gold, however I believe that gold and commodities more generally, the short dollar trade, the long equity trade are all part of this gigantic risk play that is propagated by this huge amount of cheap money being pumped into the system…I would be looking for these things to correct, perhaps violently.

He adds: "The first real uptick you get in the dollar you’ll see elephants running through a revolving door."

PREDSTAVNICI PET najjačih sindikalnih središnjica dogovorili su večeras sve detalje vezane uz prosvjed koji će biti održan u četvrtak. Neposredan povod je saborska rasprava spornog Zakona o radu. Kako doznaje Index, na sastanku su bili predstavnici Saveza samostalnih sindikata, Nezavisnog sindikata Hrvatske, Matice Sindikata, Hrvatskih radničkih sindikata te iz Hrvatske udruge sindikata. Na sastanku je dogovoreno okupljanje na središnjem zagrebačkom trgu već oko osam sati ujutro, a pola sata kasnije pokušat će krenuti prema Markovu trgu.

> Kosor otvoreno zaprijetila: Prosvjedima nećete poboljšati status radnika!

> U prosvjedima su velike barikade: Policija ponovno izvadila "Tuđmanove" prepreke

> Kosor izborom Popijača izazvala žestoke reakcije Sindikata

Iz policije imamo neslužbenu informaciju kako je zatražena ali i odobrena dozvola za sindikalni prosvjed, no neće se dozvoliti dolazak na Markov trg. Naime, još uvijek vrijedi zabrana okupljanja na Markovu trgu, a predstavnici MUP-a još su u rujnu ove godine deponirali teške metalne pregrade, još iz vremena prosvjeda za Radio 101, u Radićevoj ulici. Sindikati su uporni u ideji da se domognu Markova trga, dok će MUP biti dosljedan u zaustavljanju prosvjednika.

"Mi će pokušati doći do Markova trga, a policija neka radi svoj posao", rekao nam je jedan od sindikalnih predstavnika na večerašnjem sastanku.

Prosvjed je poluotvorenog tipa, odnosno organizatori su otvoreni prema svima koji žele doći i poduprijeti ih da se zaustavi donošenje spornog zakona u radu, no neće inzistirati na pozivu građanima. Bez obzira na to očekuje se oko 1000 sindikalaca a riječ je većinom o povjerenicima te članovima užih odbora sindikata.

Ribićeva Matica odustala

Također, Index doznaje kako su od prosvjeda odustali predstavnici Matice sindikata, a to nam je danas potvrdio i njihov čelnik Vilim Ribič.

"Naši članovi smatraju kako je većina sindikalnih zahtjeva oko Zakona o radu usvojena te da bi trebali prihvatiti ponudu Vlade. U zemlji ima puno većih problema od ovog te smatramo kako se ne bi trebali trošiti na manjim prosvjedima. I dalje stojimo čvrsto u organizaciji velikog sindikalnog prosvjeda dok smo iz organizacije ovog izašli", rekao je Ribić za Index. Kako je dodao Matica je spremna obnoviti socijalni dijalog s Vladom, a spremni su ponovno se vratiti u Gospodarsko socijalno vijeće.

"Bolje je pregovarati i otvarati dijalog nego prosvjedovati. No, ako ne bude išlo, izlazimo na ulice", zaključio je Ribić koji je izrazio nezadovoljstvo izborom novog ministra gospodarstva smatrajući kako bi Đuro Popijač dojučerašnji predsjednik Hrvatske udruge poslodavaca mogao pogodovati poslodavcima na štetu sindikata.

Sporne izmjene

Podsjetimo, sindikati su najavili prosvjede na Markovu trgu, a neposredan povod su izmjene i dopune Zakona o radu koje su upućene u hitnu saborsku proceduru. Sabor će o Zakonu o radu raspravljati u četvrtak.

Valja naglasiti kako su sindikati već gotovo mjesec dana pokušavali dovesti za stol premijerku Jadranku Kosor kako bi se dogovorili oko izmjena Zakona o radu (ZOR). Upravo zbog ZOR-a sindikati su izašli iz Gospodarsko socijalnog vijeća (GSV) smatrajući da su ih ministri htjeli prevariti. Kada su to i uspjeli, nakon dva dana pregovori su propali.

Kosor je ujutro sa sindikatima dogovorila jedno, a sasvim drugačije s poslodavcima popodne. Tada je i izašao prijedlog ZOR-a koji i dalje omogućuje zloporabu na štetu radnika a sve pod izlikom da ga se mora odmah donijeti da bi se otvorilo 19. poglavlje u procesu ulaska Hrvatske u Europsku uniju koje obuhvaća socijalnu politiku i zapošljavanje.

Evo Goldmanovci vam se ispričavaju što su vas navlačili prije neku godinu!
Kad će se ispričati za ovo što sad rade nisu rekli! Ima vremena, valjda?

Goldman Apologizes for Role in the Crisis: Report
Published: Wednesday, 18 Nov 2009 | 3:59 AM ET
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By: CNBC.com with wires

Goldman Sachs apologized for the role it played in the financial crisis, by taking part in the credit boom which preceded the bursting of the bubble, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.

RELATED LINKS

Current DateTime: 01:02:24 18 Nov 2009
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* Warren Buffett to Co-Chair Small Biz Program
* Banks Do ‘God’s Work’: Goldman Head
* Government and Economy Top News

"We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret," the paper quoted Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs’ [GS 176.60 -0.65 (-0.37%) ] chief executive, as telling a corporate conference in New York. "We apologize," Blankfein said.

He also told the conference that his remark in the British newspaper Sunday Times that Goldman did "God’s work" had been meant as a joke and that he wished he had not made it.

LLoyd Blankfein testifying before House Financial Services Committee
CNBC.com
LLoyd Blankfein testifying before House Financial Services Committee

The bank, facing criticism over its outsized profits and bonuses, will contribute $500 million to programs that help small businesses.

Goldman’s 10,000 Businesses initiative will commit $300 million to help small businesses get capital. The initiative also will commit $200 million for business and management education programs.

The advisory council for the initiative will include Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, investor Warren Buffett and Michael Porter of Harvard Business School.

Goldman also announced last month that it donated $200 million to the Goldman Sachs Foundation, its charitable arm. That announcement came on the same day Goldman reported third- quarter net income of more than $3 billion.

Goldman set aside nearly $17 billion in the first three quarters of 2009 to pay employees, just months after it repaid the $10 billion it borrowed from taxpayers.

Housing Starts Show Sharp Drop; Inflation Still Tame
Published: Wednesday, 18 Nov 2009 | 8:36 AM ET
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By: Reuters

Construction of new homes in the United States fell sharply last month, showing potential weakness in the economy’s recovery, while consumer prices rose slightly more than expected.

AP

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday housing starts dropped 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 units, the lowest level since April and the percentage drop was the biggest since January.

Ima li uopće koji post na ovoj temi (osim onih nekoliko s početka teme) koji se dotiču "Velike depresije"?!?
Pola ovih postova bi se moglo premjestiti na "Utjecaj kretanja svjetskih indeksa i cijena nafte na tržište kapitala" ili na "Komentari trgovanja na hrvatskom tržištu kapitala"…
Tu se sad stavljaju kojekakvih reportovi, što iz USA , što iz Hrvatske…koji bi kao trebali biti pokazatelji oporavka…odnosno kojom će brzinom ići taj oporavak…ali naglasak je na OPORAVAK!!!a ne na nikakvu veliku depresiju!!!
Može biti samo korekcija, kojih je oduvijek bilo i biti će ih, ali one se ne mogu uspoređivati s velikim depresijama…da nakon ovog pada još nastupi velika depresija, onda bi se cijene dionica u toj "VELIKOJ DEPRESIJI" trebale srozati na kunu i niže…kolke su šanse za to?!
ovu temu treba zaključati…ima nekoliko tema na kojima se mogu postati ovakvi postovi…dvije sam nabrojao…a i ima i Oporavak tržišta kapitala…
Ovo je apsolutno nepotrebno otvorena tema, po mome mišljenju otvorena da bi se napravila nekakva panika možda među malim ulagačima i da ovi koji su u cashu liječe svoje frustracije…