Neće, ali će na M-Sanov [wink]

Foreign demand for long-term U.S. financial assets rose in September as China and other countries boosted their holdings of Treasury securities.

Continued strong foreign demand for U.S. debt is critical to financing America’s soaring budget deficits and keeping American interest rates low enough to support a recovery from the recession.

The Treasury Department said Tuesday that foreigners purchased $40.7 billion more in assets than they sold in September, the biggest jump since June. The September gain compared with a revised $34.2 billion increase in holdings in August.

China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, boosted its holdings by $1.8 billion to $798.9 billion in September.

Evo ga, samo što nisu zaratili. [bye] [lol]

7. studeni 2009.
MMF i EBRD pozivaju banke u istočnoj Europi da priznaju gubitke

Banke koje posluju na europskim tržištima u nastajanju možda su dosad presporo priznavale moguće gubitke proizišle iz loših zajmova, a računi za takvu praksu mogli bi im stići na naplatu početkom iduće godine, upozorili su danas predstavnici MMF-a i EBRD-a.

Banke u regiji bivšeg komunističkog sistema, većinom u inozemnom vlasništvu, iskoristile su u ovoj godini mogućnost koji su im pružili lokalni računovodstveni propisi i što je sporije moguće povećavale rezerve za pokrivanje nenaplativih zajmova. Stoga se očekuje da će tek nekolicina njih izvijestiti o gubicima u poslovanju. Moguća je cijena takve prakse produljivanje zajmova koji na dulji rok nisu održivi, upozorio je viši savjetnik MMF-a Christoph Rosenberg na konferenciji u Beču.

Najveći zajmodavci Europe u nastajanju su talijanski UniCredit, austrijski Reiffeisen International, Erste Group Bank i Societe Generale, te belgijski KBC i mađarski OTP. "Sumnjamo da banke prikazuju zajmove ‘življima’ nego što jesu", kazao je Rosenberg na konferenciji u organizaciji austrijske središnje banke. "Pažljivo pratimo tu pojavu", dodao je.

Ta praksa u ovoj godini podupire dobit banaka, ali će u određenom trenutku izgubiti zamah, istaknuo je. "Dugoročno nije u interesu financijskog sektora da podržava neodržive banke ili kompanije", kazao je i ponovio bojazan MMF-a da su rizici povezani s refinanciranjem kompanija u toj regiji i dalje vrlo visoki.

Glavni ekonomist EBRD-a Erik Berglof dodao je da je taj problem osobito izražen u Ukrajini. "Zemlja koja najbolje ilustrira nedostatak svijesti o problemu je Ukrajina, gdje sve banke ‘uljepšavaju’ kredite", kazao je on. "To će im se obiti o glavu početkom iduće godine", dodao je.

(Hina/pd)

Goldman Sachs: "V-Shaped Recovery Unlikely"

"Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand—net of the boost from fiscal policy—is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real GDP growth is likely to slow anew to a below-trend pace.

The significantly stronger recovery that is now anticipated by a number of forecasters would require a much sharper acceleration in underlying final demand, along the lines of prior recoveries from deep recessions. But this ignores some key differences between the current situation and the aftermath of prior slumps. In particular, bank credit is tighter, the personal saving rate is much lower, the labor market is less cyclical, there is much more excess housing supply, and state and local budget gaps are deeper.
Again, we do expect final demand to recover gradually in 2010 as noted above. But “gradually” is the watchword, and a V-shaped recovery remains unlikely."

Jan Hatzius,Goldman Sachs Chief US Economist

Neće, ali će na M-Sanov [wink]
[/quote]

MSan je irelevantan. Vidite da kolegu brine Intel zbog njegovog značaja za hrvatsko gospodarstvo.

Svaka vam čast kolega.To se zove imati ono što Francuzi zovu jeauo vies coup quamme.
Dirnuli ste u bit problema.Dodati ću samo da je nevjerovatno koliko je svjetsko gospodarstvo međusobno povezano i međuovisno.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33996717

US Economy, Stocks Will Grow Faster Than Many Think: ING

The US economy and stock market are set to grow at a comparatively robust clip in the coming years—contrary to the gloomy forecasts from most economists, according to the global investment arm of ING Group.
"Our view is that in general, consensus is too pessimistic," Paul Zemsky, ING Investment Management’s head of asset allocation and multi-manager investments, said at a news briefing laying out the firm’s philosophy.

Specifically, the firm listed three reasons it believes growth will be stronger than expected:

*
1.Economic data has consistently beaten estimates.[lol]
*
2.The stock market is "still relatively cheap and undervalued," Zemsky said.[shocked]
*
3.Federal Reserve policy will keep interest rates low well into the foreseeable future.

A treći razlog je zato što: US economy and stock market are set to grow at a comparatively robust clip in the coming years

Dobro da nisu stavili ukupnu K/P na NYSE [lol]
Strašno

Evo malo da vidite friško objavljene najveće short pozicije Goldman Sucksa.Vrlo zanimljivo.
Dakle,u Top10 short pozicija Goldman se kladi protiv 4 financijske firme,pa kako to majku mu ako je kriza gotova,
onda shortaju Euro index i dve firme rudnika zlata.Znači da se klade na pad Eura i zlata, što znači da se klade na rally dolara.
Ako se Goldman kladi na rally dolara i protiv financijaša onda to znači da se kladi na potop dionica.
A ako se Goldman kladi na potop dionica onda će tako i biti.

One dionice koje ja pratim rastu dnevno po 5-10% u USA a samo dolate dobre vijesti. Bitan je izbir dionica, jedino što kod nas često se desi jedan pada, svi padaju i obratno.

Which big country will default first?

* by Martin Hutchinson

Of the world’s six largest economies, three currently have budget and public debt positions that if allowed to fester will push those nations into bankruptcy (the seventh largest, Italy, also has a budget and debt position that is highly vulnerable, but its problems appear chronic rather than acute). Given the proclivities of modern politicians for delaying pain and avoiding problems, it is likely that festering is just what those positions will do. So which major country, the United States, Japan or Britain, will default first on its foreign debt?

The other three of the six top economies, Germany, China and France, appear to have fewer problems but are not out of the woods entirely. Germany has substantial public debt because of the costs involved in integrating the former East Germany, but those costs are now mostly past and the current government is highly disciplined – thus Germany is now the most stable major economy. France is less disciplined; its debt level is similar to that of Germany but its current budget deficit is much higher, at around 8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009, according to the Economist forecasting panel. However, its problems pale in comparison to those of the deficit-ridden trio. China has huge amounts of hidden debt in its banking system, which could well collapse, but its direct public debt is small, as is its budget deficit, so it is unlikely to enter formal default.

The worst budget balance of the three deficit countries is in Britain, where the forecast budget deficit for calendar 2009 is a staggering 14.5% of GDP. Furthermore, the Bank of England has been slightly more irresponsible in its financing mechanisms than even the Federal Reserve, leaving interest rates above zero but funding fully one third of public spending through direct money creation. Governor Mervyn King has a reputation in the world’s chancelleries as a conservative man of economic understanding. He doesn’t really deserve it, having been one of the 364 lunatic economists who signed a round-robin to Margaret Thatcher in 1981 denouncing her economic policies just as they were on the point of magnificently working, pulling Britain back from what seemed inevitable catastrophic decline. King’s quiet manner may be more reassuring to skeptics than the arrogance of "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke, but the reality of his policies is little sounder and the economic situation facing him is distinctly worse.

Britain has two additional problems not shared by the United States and Japan. First, its economy is in distinctly worse shape. Growth was negative in the third quarter of 2009, unlike the modest positive growth in the U.S. and the sharp uptick in Japan. Moreover, whereas U.S. house prices are now at a reasonable level, in terms of incomes (albeit still perhaps 10% above their eventual bottom), Britain’s house prices are still grossly inflated, possibly in London even double their appropriate level in terms of income. The financial services business in Britain is a larger part of the overall economy than in the U.S. and the absurd exemption from tax for foreigners has brought a huge disparity between the few foreigners at the top of the City of London and the unfortunate locals toiling for mere mortal rewards. A recent story that the housing market for London homes priced above $5 million British pounds was being reflated by Goldman Sachs bonuses indicates the problem, and suggests that the further deflation needed in U.K. housing will have a major and unpleasant economic effect.

A second British problem not shared by the U.S. is its excessive reliance on financial services. As detailed in previous columns, this sector has roughly doubled in the last 30 years as a share of both British and U.S. GDP. In addition, the sector’s vulnerability to a restoration of a properly tight monetary policy has been enormously incre