Tada kao prvo nije postojala makroekonomija.
Porodio ju je Keynes. Say je bačen u zaborav od tada pa zauvijek.
http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/politika/damir-kajin-pola-predsjednickih-kandidata-treba-uhititi,61055.html
http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/nekretnine/nekretnine-dubrovacke-kuce-sve-jeftinije,61043.html
http://www.vecernji.hr/vijesti/pahor-putin-potpisali-ugovor-plinovodu-juzni-tok-clanak-50473
China Bubble Watch:
November 13 – Bloomberg: "China’s President Hu Jintao told Asia-Pacific business leaders the world’s most populous nation will take ‘vigorous’ steps to boost household spending and reduce a reliance on investment and exports for economic growth. ‘Our focus in countering the crisis is to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand… We want to ‘increase people’s ability to spend,’ he said."
November 13 – Bloomberg (Shamim Adam): "China is facing the biggest challenge to its currency policy since the start of the global recession as economists warn the peg to the dollar risks causing an asset bubble… China’s sales of yuan to keep it fixed to the dollar contributed to a 29% jump in money supply, and the peg helped spur more than $150 billion in speculative funds from overseas in the past six months, China International Capital Corp. says. Record apartment prices and a 74% climb in the benchmark stock index this year are prompting warnings that the policy is inflating asset prices excessively. ‘If China keeps the peg, it will be powerless to prevent asset bubbles,’ says Hu… Greater China chairman at Goldman Sachs…"
November 9 – Bloomberg: "China’s passenger-car sales rose 76% last month… October sales of cars, sport-utility vehicles and multipurpose vehicles climbed to 946,400 units… Sales in the first 10 months rose 45.2% from a year earlier to 8.19 million."
November 11 – Dow Jones: "China’s overall automobile sales could reach 13 million units this year, Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said… China’s automobile sales totaled 9.38 million units last year…"
November 11 – Bloomberg: "China’s lending growth slowed in October as officials considered more steps to tighten credit standards and avert asset-price bubbles. Banks extended 253 billion yuan ($37bn) of new local- currency loans, compared with 516.7 billion yuan in September… M2… grew a record 29.4% from a year earlier, the central bank said."
November 11 – Bloomberg: "China’s industrial production and trade surplus climbed in October, indicating a strengthening recovery in the world’s third-largest economy that’s likely to amplify calls to let the yuan appreciate… Production rose 16.1% from a year before, the most since March 2008… Retail sales gained an annual 16.2% in October… The trade surplus almost doubled from September, to $24 billion…"
November 9 – Bloomberg: "China’s central bank and banking regulator may ‘soon’ issue measures to limit the use of debt in real-estate purchases after asset prices climbed, a Shanghai official said. Regulators may reduce ‘leverage ratios,’ Fang Xinghai, the director-general of Shanghai’s financial services office, said… ‘I would think that soon you will see these measures coming out of the central bank and banking regulatory commission.’"
November 9 – Bloomberg: "China, the world’s second-largest energy user, will raise gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices by as much as 8% tomorrow, the first increase in more than two months…"
So as we digest the GDP report, here are the latest observations from Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards, who is not sharing any of the optimism generated courtesy of Goldman’s 24-hour GDP reveral call.
One of the key conclusions from our late-1996 Ice Age thesis was that once the bubble burst, the close 35-year positive correlation between equity and bond yields would break down. This relationship had persisted for so long that it had become ingrained in investor psychology.
The 35-year period could be divided into two phases. The 1982-2000 equity bull market had largely been driven by PE expansion (not profits), which in turn had been driven by lower bond yields and lower inflation. Conversely, in the dismal years, the Dow went sideways for 17 years between 1965-82 as profits growth was wholly offset by multiple compression – driven this time by higher bond yields and higher inflation. Indeed, throughout this 35-year period, ?bad? economic news was generally good for equities as it drove bond yields lower and PEs higher. Equities had only a very loose relationship with the profits cycle.
We knew though from Japan that in a post-bubble world, once bonds and equities had decoupled, that the equity market would mirror the economic and profits cycle. And so, despite Japan?s structural equity bear market, one could enjoy numerous 50%+ rallies if one invested as the cyclical lead indicators bottomed out. Conversely one should have ALWAYS sold when these same lead indicators peaked out. After recent massive cyclical gains in equities, that extremely dangerous topping out phase looks as if it has begun (see below).
I could be mean of spirit and point out that many of these proprietary lead indicators do actually include the equity market itself and so buying equities because the lead indicator is rising may be an entirely circular argument; but I think that is wrong. Indeed the tendency of analysts to upgrade their eps forecasts has been a pretty good sign a real economic recovery is underway (see chart below). My colleague, Andrew Lapthorne, monitors these data closely on a weekly bottom-up basis (as opposed to the top-down data below) and publishes these regularly in the extremely useful Global Equity Market Arithmetic document which comes out first thing every Monday morning ? link. This is worth getting.
If in the Ice Age, post-bubble world, the equity market is far more connected to the cycle (see chart below), we should be very aware of possible cyclical turning points. They say the trend is your friend until it hits a bend. Beware, we may have just hit one.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-trend-your-friend-until-it-hits-bend
Čelnici APEC-a obvezali se na novu strategiju gospodarskog razvoja
Summit APEC-a, posljednji veliki skup svjetskih čelnika uoči klimatskog summita u Kopenhagenu u prosincu
Yukio Hatoyama, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Barack Obama, Lee Hsien Loong, Hu Jintao (Reuters)Čelnici 21 zemlje Azijsko-pacifičkog foruma za gospodarsku suradnju (APEC) obvezali su se na summitu u Singapuru na novu strategiju gospodarskog razvoja i odbacili svaki protekcionizam.
"Globalna ekonomija počela se oporavljati, a azijsko-pacifička regija predvodi taj oporavak", rekao je singapurski premijer Lee Hsien Loong, čitajući tekst završne deklaracije po završetku summita, javlja agencija dpa.
"Regija se ne može vratiti uobičajenoj razvojnoj politici. Treba nam nova paradigma razvoja, treba nam svjež model ekonomske integracije", rekao je Lee, kako ga prenosi Associated Press.
Nema protekcionizma
Čelnici APEC-a pozvali su na završetak trgovinskih pregovora iz Dohe sljedeće godine i odbacili "sve oblike protekcionizma". Slobodna trgovina i otvorena tržišta ključ su razvoja, rekao je Lee.
Kako bi osigurali održivi oporavak i donijeli dobrobit stanovništvu, navodi se u deklaraciji, APEC će se zalagati za "uravnoteženi i održivi razvoj".
"Stvorit ćemo socijalne sigurnosne osigurače koji će zajamčiti kratkoročne potpore, ali izbjeći dugoročne ovisnosti", rekao je Lee.
Nešto ranije u svome govoru američki predsjednik Barack Obama također je rekao da svijetu treba uravnoteženi razvoj. "Ne možemo slijediti istu politiku koja je dovela do ovakve neravnoteže u razvoju. Ako nastavimo istim putem klizit ćemo od krize do krize, što je promašen smjer koji je već imao razorne posljedice po naše građane, poslove i vlade", rekao je Obama.
Tečajevi valuta nisu spominjani
U završnoj deklaraciji, međutim, ne spominju se pitanja tečajeva nacionalnih valuta, iako su u ministarskom nacrtu završnog dokumenta zemlje članice Foruma bile pozvane da održe "tržišne tečajeve". No, očito je da je nakon kineskog neslaganja taj dio ispao iz deklaracije. Kineski yuan stručnjaci smatraju umjetno podcijenjenim što druge valute čini manje kompetitivnima.
….
There are allways mistakes made. Investments go bad. Businesses go under. People go broke. When many mistakes are corrected at once, it’s called a "recession."
And when an entire economic models go bad, it’s called "depression."
People do not get what they want or what they expect from the markets; they get what they deserve!
Predator [thumbsup]
"As sure as the spring will follow the winter, prosperity and economic growth will follow recession."
"You cannot spend your way out of recession or borrow your way out of debt"
@ Predator i Conan
Koga to citirate ako se smije znati? [huh]
"The market will go up and down, but not necessarily in that order"
"The potential for loss when gambling on certainties is infinite"
"There are two types of economists:
those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know"
Investor Sentiment: Smart Money Turning Bearish
by Guy Lerner
After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator remains in the extreme bullish zone. While not there yet, the indicators are heading in the direction that one would expect to see at a market top.
For now, I will continue to state what I have been stating for 5 weeks as it has served us well in defining the price action seen in the major market indices:
"Equities are for renting not owning at this juncture. I am not calling for a market top, but prices should trade more in a range, and if you intend to play on the long side, it will be important to maintain your discipline (for risk reasons) and buy at the lows of that trading range and sell at the highs to extract any profits from this market. The upward bias still remains as long as investor sentiment is still extremely bullish, but there is probably greater risk of a market down draft now than in past weeks."
Considering the sentiment picture on its own, we can sum up by asking one question: is this the market environment that will take you from here to there? I believe that answer is “no”. Markets can always go higher confounding the pundits, but the high odds play according to the sentiment data is that the major equity indices are in a topping process. This implies a trading range at best. There is risk of a down draft as markets “fueled” by the proverbial “liquidity” are prone to quick sell offs. The outlier trade is a market blow off or a spike in prices, and I do not rule this possibility out because of the ongoing downtrend in the Dollar Index. It is possible but it is not the high odds play.