10. studeni 2009.| Tomislav Pili

Harač uplašio potrošače

Dvanaesti uzastopni mjesečni pad prometa u trgovini na malo ne pruža puno razloga za optimizam glede gospodarskog oporavka, kažu analitičari

Krediti stanovništvu u Hrvatskoj, bez stambenih kredita, tijekom prva tri tromjesečja bilježe konstantno mjesečno smanjenje, a posljednjih je mjeseci vidljiv pad i na godišnjoj razini, stoji u istraživanju SG – Splitske banke objavljenom u ponedjeljak. Smanjenje potražnje kućanstava za kreditima, prisutno i u europskim zemljama, pridonijelo je snažnom ovogodišnjem smanjenju osobne potrošnje. Uz smanjeno kreditiranje, snižavanje razine zaposlenosti također rezultira smanjenjem dohotka kućanstava te posljedično manjom potrošnjom.

Ključan rast potražnje
“Dok se povećanje stope PDV-a barem za sada nije znatnije odrazilo na rast cijena zbog opadajuće domaće potražnje i rasta konkurentskih pritiska, znatan utjecaj na ponašanje potrošača došao je od uvođenja ‘kriznog poreza’ koji je imao snažan psihološki efekt”, kaže se u istraživanju koje potpisuje glavni ekonomist Zdeslav Šantić. Zbog toga je u rujnu, prema podacima DZS-a, dvanaesti uzastopni mjesec zabilježen pad prodaje na malo. “Navedena kretanja u maloprodaji ne pružaju puno razloga za optimizam glede gospodarskog oporavka pogotovo ako se zna da bez stabilizacije osobne potrošnje nema ni oporavka BDP-a. Ipak, nešto povoljnija kretanja u ovom sektoru moguće je očekivati u drugoj polovini 2010., a upravo bi rast potražnje za kreditima stanovništva trebao biti jedan od prvih naznaka povoljnijih kretanja u trgovini na malo”, zaključuje se u analizi SG – Splitske banke.

Česte promjene
Ništa optimističniji tonovi ne mogu se iščitati ni iz tjedne makroekonomske analize PBZ-a. Analitičari te banke za 2010. predviđaju stagnaciju hrvatskoga gospodarstva. U PBZ-u su se osvrnuli i na često mijenjanje mišljenja ekonomskih analitičara o oporavku Hrvatske i EU. “Česta promjena prognoza ocrtava ne samo nesvakidašnju situaciju u kojoj su se našla gospodarstva već i dimenziju globalne krize”, ističe se u analizi. Tu tezu potkrepljuju procjenama rasta, odnosno pada europskog i hrvatskoga gospodarstva unatrag dvije godine. U jesen 2007. predviđao se rast europskoga gospodarstva od 2,4 posto, u jesen 2008. procjena je pala na 0,2 posto, a sada iznosi recesijskih –4,1 posto. “Procjene za Hrvatsku u istom su se razdoblju ‘prošetale’ od rasta od 5,5 posto do pada od 5,8 posto.” S obzirom na razinu neizvjesnosti koja okružuje navedene prognoze za sljedeću godinu, vjerojatno je da će se i iduće godine nastaviti trend čestih promjena očekivanja, drže analitičari PBZ-a. Unatoč tome jednoglasni je stav analitičara da bi se stagnacija mogla produljiti i na srednji rok ako se ne učine nužne strukturne reforme. Sektori koji vape za reformom su javna uprava, državne i lokalne financije, državne potpore, brodogradnja i borba protiv korupcije.

Ti insideri prodaju i prodaju, nikada prodati, vidiš da manipuliraju informacijama, plus štošta. Nikada ne nasjedati na javne informacije, to su možda ponekad i točne, ali ponekad, no, tada su svi na okidaču.

NIje da sam svatio što očeš da kažeš? Ovo su čoveče činjenice. Šta se tiče manipulacije slažem se. LEI i GDP su najlepši dokaz.

Prosječan amerikanac izgleda živi sve lošije………..a cijeli svijet od njega očekuje čuda………hm, hm

[undecid]

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/i-blame-everyone-for-the-credit-card-fiasco-2-36327

If You Thought the Housing Meltdown Was Bad……wait until you see what’s in the cards for commercial real estate.

That’s right, the next train wreck will be in commercial real estate. Couldn’t be worse than last year’s residential market crash? That remains to be seen. But it’s coming soon, probably as early as the second quarter of next year, and there’s nothing that can prevent it. The government will intervene, trying desperately to delay the day of reckoning, and may even succeed. For a while. But make no mistake about it, that train is going off the tracks no matter what.

Every part of the sector – from multifamily apartment buildings to retail shopping centers, suburban office buildings, industrial facilities, and hotels – has accumulated a huge amount of defaulted or nonperforming paper. It’s an impossible, swaying structure that cannot long stand.

Just ask Andy Miller.

Andy is one of the most knowledgeable people around when it comes to commercial real estate. Co-founder of the Miller Fishman Group of Denver, he has spent twenty years buying and developing apartment communities, shopping centers, office buildings, and warehouses throughout the country. He’s also worked extensively – especially lately – with asset managers and special servicers (those who handle commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS) from insurance companies, conduits, and the biggest banks in the U.S., advising them on default scenarios, helping them develop realistic pricing structures, and making hold or sell recommendations.

It isn’t easy. Commercial real estate sales are off a staggering 82% in 2009, compared with 2008, and last year was worse than ’07. No one is selling at depressed prices, but it hardly matters as there are no buyers, either because they’re afraid of the market or can’t meet more stringent loan requirements. Two years ago, the value of all commercial real estate in the U.S. was about $6.5 trillion. Against that was laid $3-3.5 trillion in loans. The latter figure hasn’t changed much. But the former has sunk like a bar of lead in the lake, so that now between half and two-thirds of those loans will have to be written down, Andy estimates.

"If the banks had to take that hit all at once, there wouldn’t be any banks," he says.

And it’s actually worse than that. As even average citizens became aware during the subprime meltdown, loans in recent years were bundled into exotic financial vehicles that could be sold and resold, a class generically known as conduits. These commercial mortgage-backed securities, while less well known than their cousins built upon home loans, are nonetheless ubiquitous.

Three guesses who were among the significant buyers of CMBS. If you said banks, banks, and more banks, you got it. Thus these folks are sitting not only on their own malperforming loans, but on a whole lot of everyone else’s toxic junk, too.

This is how bad conduits are: A 3% default rate last year jumped to 6% in 2009 and is expected to double again, to 12%, in 2010. An entity that takes a 12% hit to its portfolio – and this includes countless banks, pension and annuity funds, international institutional investors, and others – is in deep, deep trouble.

The real tsunami is coming, probably in the second quarter of 2010, Andy estimates. Because that’s when banks will have to start preparing for the wave of mortgages that were written near the market top and are maturing in 2011-12. Unlike home loans, commercial loans tend to be relatively short-term in nature (average 5-7 years), because – outside of apartment building loans backed by Fannie or Freddie – there are no government programs to subsidize longer-term ones. These guys mature in bunches.

http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/asteroid-promjera-sedam-metara-promasio-zemlju/459458.aspx
jao, zamalo, stativa! [lol]

So, the question of the day: Is there a bubble in asset markets?
Some of our most public and lofty seers seem at odds over that question, and it is making for strange bedfellows, or tag-team, partners.
Talking their respective books over this question we have a tag-team match of historic proportion shaping up: In the red corner we have Marc “The Ponytail” Faber teaming up with Nouriel “Party Animal” Roubini; well lubricated machine these two. And in the blue corner, we have Jim “Gosh I love China” Rogers teaming up with Alan “The Maestro” Greenspan; this is a real odd couple, but their skills cannot be questioned.
If you know anything about tag-team matches, you know there is always someone lurking in the background ready to bend the rules and jump in one side of the fight…he
Black Swan Capital’s Currency Currents is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized
investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. Detailed
disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html
has already identified himself, it’s none other than Frederic “The Bruiser” Mishkin (former Fed governor and expert at full body slams).
The Pony Tail gets the action started with a roundhouse punch glancing against the Maestro’s forehead:
"I would regard a failure [Gold] to hold above the ‘upside breakout points’ in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below US$1,000 would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness, possibly down to between US$800 and US$900," Faber added. Faber has been reiterating, in various recent interviews, the notion of over-streched assets and a possible short-term dollar turnaround. Speaking in a Bloomberg interview from Istanbul on Tuesday, Faber said: "Maybe the dollar has made a turn, it can easily rebound by 10%”.
The Maestro recovers quickly, and finds The Pony Tail off-balance, and looks to end it early, going for the pile driver, a dangerous move indeed:
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a rebound in stocks is “re-liquifying” the U.S. economy and housing prices are showing early indications of ending their decline.
“We have been very fortunate that the stock markets moved back” and are “re-liquifying the whole process,” Greenspan said at an event in Edmonton, Alberta, presented by Abu Dhabi National Energy Co., the state-controlled energy producer known as Taqa.
Pony Tail shakes it off and tags up with Party Animal who leaps off the top rope, a direct hit here and the match is over:
“But while the US and global economy have begun a modest recovery, asset prices have gone through the roof since March in a major and synchronised rally. While asset prices were falling sharply in 2008, when the dollar was rallying, they have recovered sharply since March while the dollar is tanking. Risky asset prices have risen too much, too soon and too fast compared with macroeconomic fundamentals.”

Fresh off another win and well rested, “Gosh I Love China” quickly moves into the ring, helping his partner The Maestro avoid the death blow. He does. And then launches into his own with a flying drop kick to the head of the Party Animal:
How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high? Same for coffee, sugar, cotton, natural gas, and many more. I have
Black Swan Capital’s Currency Currents is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized
investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. Detailed
disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html
a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs.
A bubble is when assets are screaming to new highs everyday, everyone is talking about them, and everyone owns them. Right now, virtually no one owns commodities. So for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets.
I am flabbergasted at Mr. Roubini’s comment about bubbles because there is not a single market in the world making all-time highs except Gold, US Government Bonds, Cocoa, and the Sri Lankan stock market. That’s hardly reason to call for a bubble. So, I am most perplexed about this alleged bubble which is out there.
If an asset rises 100% in one year, that’s a great year, but not necessarily a bubble. Look at oil. It’s up huge off the bottom but nowhere near it’s old highs. Look at Citigroup. The stock is up 3 or so times off the bottom …
“… And since Mr. Roubini thought oil would stay below $40 a barrel for all of 2009, I would love for him to tell me and the rest of the world exactly where are all the oil supplies because the International Energy Agency (IEA) — which has the best global data set on energy supplies — has no idea where is the oil. Mr. Roubini should tell us where this price suppressing oil supply is hidden. All the oil possessing countries in the world have declining reserves. All the oil companies have declining reserves. So Mr. Roubini must know something the rest of us don’t.
Ouch…that hurt Party Animal more than his usual late night last call mixer. It was a powerful kick indeed delivered by Gosh I Love China. But, the Party Animal knows how to take a blow, and has plenty of fighting experience while dazed and dreary. Even so, he’s wobbling.
Slipping under the bottom rope, from across the ring, out of sight of the referee, The Bruiser enters the ring to end it with one of his patented full body slams:
“There is increasing concern that we may be experiencing another round of asset-price bubbles that could pose great danger to the economy. Does this danger provide a case for the US Federal Reserve to exit from its zero-interest-rate policy sooner rather than later, as many commentators have suggested? The answer is no.”

Wow! The Party Animal has taken a beating, and is about to be pinned…one, two…and just in time, The Ponytail applies the Thai death-lock to the referee before he can count to three…what a match…everyone’s in the ring now, flailing away. This is exciting stuff. Man, it’s a lot more than we bargained for. These guys are tough, smart, and technically gifted. Stay tuned. This battle has legs and ain’t over yet.

Thats all folks! For now!
KingArthas

http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/makroekonomija/hrvatska/suker-neka-analiticari-napisu-zasto-banke-imaju-tako-visoke-kamate,60818.html