Personal bankruptcies surge 9%
The number of Americans filing personal bankruptcies surged 9% in October, and were on target for the highest annual total in four years, according to a report issued Wednesday.
The nearly 9% increase in consumer bankruptcy filings in October, together with a 7% jump reported in business cases, demonstrates the sustained stress on the U.S. economy,"
Zamislite da kod nas postoji osobni bankrot.Mislim da bi već bili u Velikoj depresiji 3
Devon net income falls 81%, beats target
Pa hebote koliki je bio target? Da im padne 100%? [lol]
Another View At Goldman’s Trading Perfection And Statistical Improbabilities
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2009 11:03 -0500
Ben BernankebernankeGoldman SachsmoneyPerformanceRevenueSEC
When a firm’s trading performance challenges not only all preconceptions of realistic trading, but also of statistical distributions, one can merely stand back and watch in awe. Attached is a graphic of what a rigged, backstopped and manipulated market is all about. The chart demonstrates Goldman’s YTD trading track record: out of 194 trading days in 2009, the firm has made over $100 million on 116 occasions! This alone accounts for $11.6 billion in revenue (and is likely much more as Goldman could have easily had a $1 billion trading day in the rightmost bracket as it is open ended). Assuming midline averages for any given bucket and multiplying by the amount of days that the firm traded within these, Goldman Sachs has made $15 billion courtesy of the skewed and very highly improbable (but not impossible, thank you taxpayers and Ben Bernanke) chart.
And a more granular read, demonstrates that as the year has progressed, Goldman has become much better at extracting larger wins and minimizing losses. The firm lost money on just 3 days in the last two quarters. Is this a ponzi scheme? We surely don’t know absent additional information (which will never be forthcoming, despite that GS is a public company). Is this comparable to the returns generated by a ponzi scheme? Absofuckinlutely.
Can the SEC please dissolve itself already and save taxpayers at least a little money?
Wednesday 4 November 2009
http://www.blackswantrading.com
Key News
The euro zone’s dominant service sector expanded for the second consecutive month and at its fastest pace in 22 months, led by France. (Reuters)
The interbank cost of borrowing dollars for three months was fixed at a record low for a third straight session on Wednesday. (Reuters)
Fitch downgraded Ireland’s long-term rating to ‘AA- ‘ from ‘AA+’, with a stable outlook. It said the move reflected the severity of the decline in nominal GDP and the exceptional rise in government liabilities.(Reuters)
Japan ex-MOF currency chief Watanabe says the dollar will remain a key global currency as there is no other unit to replace it as a reserve currency. In an interview with Reuters, he says the G20 is unlikely to talk much about the dollar’s weakness, which should be discussed by G7 rich nations and China. (Reuters)
Quotable
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
Buckminster Fuller
FX Trading – Who leads and who follows…
I recently downloaded Caesar’s Confessions on to my I-pod so I could listen while doing my strenuous exercise, which consists of a walk around the neighborhood once the US session is finished. Its great stuff, though not exactly easy listening. It’s more like homework. But the depth of the logic and insight into human nature that Caesar display’s is astounding, not to mention his diction and overall writing skills.
To me, it goes to the point that the educated classes were likely a lot more educated in 50 BC then the so-called educated classes today (technological tends to obscure this difference I believe). While listening to Caesar’s writing’s, one thing stands out the most–human nature hasn’t changed. [Jesse Livermore said the same when he uttered the phrase, “There is nothing new on Wall Street.”]
As I was thinking about this, I started thinking about the market—human action drives it now, just as it always has, despite flash trading and reams of algorithms. Fear, greed, rationality, and irrationality are all on display in the market everyday to varying degrees. The same is on display on the battlefield, as Caesar so eloquently portrays in his Confessions.
Ultimately those most prepared, which helps create luck, prove to be the winners over time in battle and in trading.
Black Swan Capital’s Currency Currents is strictly an informational publication and does not provide personalized or
individualized investment or trading advice. Commodity futures and forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be
suitable for you. The money you allocate to futures or forex trading should be money that you can afford to lose. Please carefully
read Black Swan’s full disclaimer, which is available at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer
I imagined Caesar grilling one of the Centurions on why he decided to move troops in a particular direction during the heat of battle, and the Centurion replying something like this:
Well Caesar, as you know, there has been a tight correlation between the color of the enemies cavalry horses and their ability to outflank us. Today we noticed most were on black horses, so that meant we needed to shift our defenses to end of our lines.
Poucni dokumentarac upravo u tijeku na HRT1
http://raspored.hrt.hr/?raspored=1&mreza=2&datum=2009-11-05&najava=47646
Pozdrav svima.
Prvo bih htio reć da mi je makroekonomija slabija strana jer sam više orijentiran na analizu poduzeća (a pošto je nemoguće analizirtati poduzeće bez analize njegove okoline onda ipak treba nešto znat:)). Međutim čini mi se da se krivo pristupilo temi. Kada bi pitao nekoliko forumaša koja je pisala na ovoj temi što je depresija vjerojatno bi bili vrlo različiti odgovori. Ako se utipka u google economy depression, njezino definiranje je vrlo različito. Ima i jedna šala: Recesija je kada vaš susjed izgubi posa, a depresija kada i vi izgubite posao. Tako je navedeno sljedeće:
– dugotrajniji pad BDPa, 3 i više godina, recimo SAD 1930/31/32/33 – -8,6/ -6.4/ -13%/-1.3
– pad realnog BDPa 10 i više posto
– dugotrajni pad gosp akt (svodi se na isto)
– porast nezaposlenosti, pad cijena, bla, bla…
Ako prihvatimo sve ovo onda ja ne vjerujem da smo u depresiji (Po meni u visoko globaliziranom gospodarstvu vrlo teško samo jedna zemlja može biti u depresiji, ili je svijet u depresiji ili nije). Razlog je što su se neki pokazatelji u trećem kvartalu poboljšali- produktivnost, cpi (…) neki ostali nepromjenjeni, neki, a neki lošiji.
Moje skromno znanje mi kaže da je većina svjetskih ekonomskih vođa u pravu kada kaže da će oporavak biti spor i težak.
Posebno to vrijedi za nas. Prodali smo se, sretni smo kada se zadužujemo uz visoke kamatne stope, to je druga tema…
Inače, ako ćemo gledati jako dugoročno:
Svjetsko gospodarstva nije egzistentno.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL769549720091007
BNP CEO declares crisis over for French banks
Ovo vam kaže CEO najveće francuske banke.
Sad možete slušati razne hotštaplere koje tu postaju neke kolege, ili možete slušati ovoga gospodina.
Na internetu ako se malo potrudite možete pronaći svakakve izjave ili tvrdnje, pa tako možete pronaći i da krave lete:
http://europa1.bloger.hr/post/krave-su-plave-i-lete-da-li-su/1705943.aspx
Kaže se, stara arapska – Što je obmana veća, to je manja sreća.
lp
Velika depresija?
Moguće, ali ne kao ona prva.
Ali za sada, barem do prolječa nikako.
Jedina velika depresija će se javiti u glavama onih koji po cijele dane drukaju i očekuju ogromni pad bez razloga, a u cashu su. E kod njih je depresija jer dionice opet kreću up a oni se mlate cashom.
Eto dragi kolege katastrofičari i jahači apokalipse, unatoč otvaranju ove teme, plašenja, vađenja linkova koji govore o propasti svijeta, a sve kako bi zadovoljili svoje prizemne nagone da kupite nešto kunu dve jeftinije,a ne vodeći računa ukoliko vam se obisitine zle slutnje da to jeftinije kupljeno nećete u budućnosti moći nikome prodati jer će nastupiti kataklizma pa će vam dionice postati bezvrjedne, Amerika je opet prešla 10.000 na industrijskom DOW, 2.100 na tehnološkom Nasdaqu i 1.065 na majci svih indeksa SP, a Kinu da ne spominjemo jer se ne sjećam kad je zadnji put bila u negativnom. A to je sve zajedno 1% ispod lokalnog ATH. Dragi kolege, kladeći se protiv svjetske ekonomije kladite se protiv sebe samih, protiv svoje djece i prosperiteta kojem svi težimo, a sve radi najnižih ljudskih nagona koji postoje, a to je željenje zla drugom kako bi tebi bilo dobro. Živjeli vi meni dežurni katastrofičari i depresivci, do novog pada.
Živio drug Rekvijem! Živio socijalizam!!! [thumbsup]
Na ovoj temi koja je kratko trajala i sad je možemo slobodno zatvoriti jer depresije nema samo pojedinci imaju porblema s promjenama raspoloženje pa misle da su u depresiji .,
moramo podvući crtu i jednostavno sumirati.
NEMOŽE se protiv TRENDA!
Zaboravio sam kako se onaj kolega zove ima puno nickova, ma neznam, sam znam da je sviro sviro da se ukeširo!
[lol]
ovu temu su otvorili najveći neznalice i promašitelji, pa nije ni čudo da su ponovno promašili. To im je profesija: promašivanje.