Kostrenčić: Misli li Vlada na poduzetnike koji smanjuju procjene prihoda i do 20 posto?
Business.hr
10.12.2008 13:02

Nakon nekoliko premišljanja, Vlada je odlučila proračunski deficit za 2009. godinu ipak smanjiti. Ekonomsko vijeće Vladi je dalo nekoliko preporuka, a neke od njih odnose se na preraspodjelu sedam milijardi kuna državnih subvencija radi većeg fokusa na malo i srednje poduzetništvo te izvoznike, rezanje svih kapitalnih izdataka osim onih s kraćim rokom povrata te raspoređivanje 3,5 milijardi kuna dugova u zdravstvu na iduće dvije godine umjesto isključivo u proračun 2009.

Vijeće i dalje vjeruje da, kada se već nije išlo na nulti deficit kako su to bili preporučili, Vlada mora težiti drastičnom smanjenju proračunskog deficita, s predloženih 1,6 na ispod 1 posto BDP-a.

Alen Kovač, makroekonomski analitičar Erste banke, za Business.hr prokomentirao je što misli da bi trebalo učiniti s proračunom, pa tako kaže kako je "usmjerenost ka balansiranom budžetu u trenutnim okolnostima, kada je pristup financiranju otežan, nužan i opravdan".

"S druge strane, zadržavanje razvojne komponente te nastavak investicijskog ciklusa također je bitno kako bi se podržala i gospodarska aktivnost. Uz nepostignut dogovor oko zamrzavanja plaća, na rashodnoj strani vidljiv je snažan porast rashoda zdravstvu koji dodatno otežava postizanje balansiranog budžeta", kaže on.

Marijan KostrenčićMarijan KostrenčićMarijan Kostrenčić, konzultant i pročelnik odjela za gospodarstvo Matice Hrvatske, kaže pak kako nije siguran koliko je proračun realan jer je rađen na troškovnom principu.

"Gospodarstvenici s kojima kontaktiram smanjili su procjene prihoda u planovima za 2009. i do 20 posto, te smatram da je pri izradi proračuna to trebalo biti uzeto u obzir. Neki negativni efekti krize u realnom sektoru, poput pada prodaje vozila i medijskog oglašavanja, vidljivi su i u posljednjem kvartalu ove godine, a to znači da će se i proračun slabije puniti u sljedećoj godini", kaže nam Kostrenčić.

Kostrenčić misli da je polemika oko zamrzavanja plaća bila umjetna. "Time se željela skrenuti pozornost sa propusta vlade, ne samo ove nego svih dosadašnjih, da pospreme u svojim redovima. Neradnicima u javnoj upravi davno je trebalo dati otkaz, pa bi danas bilo novca za plaćanje kvalitetnog kadra u javnoj upravi", objasnio je.

Nasmijao se do suza…

Q Ratio Signals ‘Horrific’ Market Bottom, CLSA Says (Update1)
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By Patrick Rial

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — A global stock slump may have further to go, according to Tobin’s Q ratio, which compares the market value of companies to the cost of their constituent parts, CLSA Ltd. strategist Russell Napier said.

The ratio, developed in 1969 by Nobel Prize-winning economist James Tobin, indicates the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is still too expensive relative to the cost of replacing assets, said Napier. While the 39 percent drop in the S&P this year pushed equity prices below replacement cost, history suggests the ratio must sink further as deflation sets in, he said. The S&P may plunge another 55 percent to a trough of 400 by 2014, the strategist said.

“Things have always looked absolutely terrible at the bottom,” said Napier, Institutional Investor’s top-ranked Asia strategist from 1997-1999. With deflation “the value of assets falls and the value of debt stays up, then equity gets crushed. The results are always horrific.”

Shares have fallen this year as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression caused almost $1 trillion of losses at institutions around the globe and dragged the world’s largest economies into recession. The MSCI World Index has tumbled 44 percent in 2008, set for the biggest annual decline in its four- decade history.

Bear-Market Scholar

Napier, who teaches at Edinburgh Business School, based his S&P 500 forecast on the Q for U.S. equities as well as the 10- year cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, another measure of long-term value.

Before the trough in 2014, investors are likely to see a so-called bear market rally for the next two years as central bank actions delay the onset of deflation, he said.

The Q ratio on U.S. equities has dropped to 0.7 from a peak of 2.9 in 1999, and reaching 0.3 has always signaled the end of a bear market, said Napier, the author of “Anatomy of the Bear,” a study of how business cycles change course. The Q ratio for U.S. equities has fluctuated between 0.3 and 3 in the past 130 years.

When the gauge is more than one, it indicates the market is overvaluing company assets, while a Q ratio of less than one signifies shares are undervalued because it is cheaper to buy companies than to build them from the ground up.

At the end of the four largest U.S. bear markets in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, the Q ratio fell to 0.3 or lower, and history is likely to repeat, said Napier. From the 1982 trough, the S&P 500 grew more than 14-fold to the middle of 2000, when Napier says the last bull market ended.

Quantitative Easing

Measures such as Tobin’s Q ratio and a 10-year price-to- earnings ratio are “valuable tools,” said Andrew Milligan, the Edinburgh-based head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments, which oversees about $190 billion. Milligan said he is bullish on U.S. equities for now as central bank efforts to fight deflation will push the market higher.

“For those who are worried about losing much of their investment almost overnight, very clearly you’d want to wait for those signals to give a much stronger case,” he said. The bear market will have “a painful resolution, it’s just a question of how painful, over what period of time and for what parties.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s indication that he will use “quantitative easing” to prevent deflation points to a stock market rally that may last for the next two years, Napier said. With quantitative easing, a tool pioneered by the Bank of Japan, central banks can stimulate inflation by printing money and flooding the market with cash in order to encourage consumers to spend.

The government’s efforts will eventually fail as ballooning government debt devalues the dollar, causes investors to flee U.S. assets and takes the S&P 500 to its eventual bottom in 2014, Napier said.

“Bear markets always end for exa

Ameri 2% u plusu.
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iznenađujuće da su Ameri završili u plusu i to treba naglasiti svi glavni američki indexi su u plusu kao i ostali indexi, svi su završili u plusu.
Američki futuresi jutros u rasponu od 0,06 do 0,45% u crvenom što je odlično po meni
Kinezi, Japanci i ostali azijski injdexi djelimično u plusu a djelimočno u simboličnom minusu, moguće čak da završe u plusu.
Nafta ima blagi rast na 43,58 dolara kao i zlato
dok dolar lagano pada spram Eura 1,3108 dolara
danas kada svi predviđaju kod nas pad (kao i jučer)moglo bi biti iznenađenje, a nebi bilo prvo na burzi jer burza ima samo svoja pravila i ništa više.
pisano u 7,04

Mislim kolega da krivo gledate.

Shanghai Composite 2,043.35 1:40AM ET Down 35.77 (-1.72%)
I jučer ste rekli da je EUR/USD bio +2%, a bio je -0,44%
Nećemo se zanositi i krivo navoditi. Evo vam je as pao[cool]

moj prika izgleda da ne gledamo u isto vrijeme
niti jučer niti danas nisam ništa napisao pogrešno niti krivo naveo ili ne gledamo0 isto, ja inače nosim očale, samo je mala dioptrija. [cool]

Mislim kolega da krivo gledate.

Shanghai Composite 2,043.35 1:40AM ET Down 35.77 (-1.72%)
I jučer ste rekli da je EUR/USD bio +2%, a bio je -0,44%
Nećemo se zanositi i krivo navoditi. Evo vam je as pao[cool]
[/quote]
kolega nemojte krivo gledati:
Shanghai Composite je u minusu 2,27% sada
Nećemo se zanositi i krivo navoditi. Evo vam je stotka pala [lol]