Prorok Buffett 2003. predvidio "megakatastrofu"
Business.hr
22.09.2008 11:43

Jedan od najbogatijih ljudi na svijetu Warren Buffett je, ako je suditi prema njegovim izjavama iz 2003. godine, još jednom opravdao svoju titulu "proroka iz Omahe". Buffett je, naime, te godine u svom godišnjem izvješću dioničarima predvidio "megakatastrofalni rizik" zbog rastuće trgovine izvedenicama, kao i dionicama, koje su prema njegovu mišljenju tada bile preskupe.

U to vrijeme tržište izvedenica eksplodiralo je jer su investicijske banke svojim klijentima prodavale izvedenice vrijedne milijarde dolara kao sredstvo upravljanja rizikom.

Buffett je takve financijske instrumente nazvao kompliciranima, "vremenskim bombama" i "financijskim oružjem za masovno razaranje", koje ne samo da može nauditi kupcima i prodavačima, nego cijelom ekonomskom sustavu.

Buffett je tada upozoravao da izvedenice kompanije mogu gurnuti u "spiralu koja može dovesti do korporacijskog sloma". Buffett je kazao i kako izvedenice daju poticaj manevriranju s lažnim računima.

Zarada i gubici iz izvedenica odmah se, naime, registriraju, iako ne dolazi do doslovne izmjene novca. U mnogim slučajevima tvrtke postanu svjesne stvarne cijene tek godinama kasnije, upozoravao je Buffett, navodeći kako takvo nešto daje prostora svakojakim prijevarama.

Tvrtka Berkshire Hathaway te se godine pod Buffettovim vodstvom povukla iz tržišta izvedenicama. Buffett je tada poslovanje s izvedenicama usporedio s paklom, kazavši kako je "lako u njega ući, ali teško je izaći".

Press Release – Weekly Application Survey
Mortgage Applications Increase as Refinance Activity Surges In Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Date: 9/17/2008

WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 17, 2008) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 12, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 661.7, an increase of 33.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 496.2 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 65.3 percent compared with the previous holiday-shortened week and was down 1.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
“The drop in mortgage rates reflected the Treasury’s announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed under conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Agency,” said Orawin Velz, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic Forecasting. “Renewed financial concerns should keep long-term Treasury yields low and translate to lower mortgage rates in the near term despite some widening in mortgage spreads. We expect to see meaningful increases in mortgage demand in coming weeks on both the purchase and refi sides.”

The Refinance Index increased 88.1 percent to 2300.0 from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2.4 percent to 380.4 from one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index increased 5.3 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 4.5 percent.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 13.5 percent. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index is up 4.9 percent, while this average is up 29.1 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 51.6 percent of total applications from 36.3 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.0 percent from 6.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.82 percent from 6.06 percent, with points increasing to 1.13 from 1.02 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.54 percent from 5.73 percent, with points increasing to 1.12 from 0.98 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 6.95 percent from 7.00 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

Europa ponovno TONE u crveno. 2 val.
Vaš link

A evo i zašto Europ tone, a i mi skupa s njima:

http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures

Američki futuresi u minusu.

Futuresi su cijeli dan u minusu, rano ujutro čak i nešto više tako da to ne igra ulogu. Čeka se reakcija WS-a na zadnja događanja oko Spasilačkog plana. Za to je EU cijeli dan kao na toboganu, malo dole , malo gore, očito da sami ne mogu odrediti smjer nego čekaju direkciju iz USA.

Premješteno iz teme: Komentari trgovanja na hrvatskom tržištu kapitala

ameri u minisu cca 0,65 % prema futuresima

Premješteno iz teme: Komentari trgovanja na hrvatskom tržištu kapitala

Europa mrljavi oko nule, američki fuuresi u blagom minusu, crobex u finom minusu….
Izgleda bull run na svjetskoj razini. Još da dođe neka vijest da je roknula neka banka

Premješteno iz teme: Komentari trgovanja na hrvatskom tržištu kapitala

Američki futuresi u minusu:

http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures

Mislijo sam danas kupovat jer sam jutros prodo na otvaranju ali najvjerovatnije cu sacekat sutrasnji dan jer i ameri ce nesto kapitalizirati pa ocekujem da ce danas biti u minusu ali ima ona stara NIKAD NE RECI NIKAD

Futuresi u plusu.
Europa u plusu.
Toliko o tome.

Zasad….

napeto, napeto, nema što, čeka se INA, za sada kao da ništa od svega, dalje se čeka amerika, može biti svašta, imam osjećaj da bukti i da fali samo još jedan mali fitilj da se sve pokrene prema vrhu…

Premješteno iz teme: Komentari trgovanja na hrvatskom tržištu kapitala

Loše…futuresi
E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 08 1,244.50 8:35am ET Down 1.50 (-0.12%) Chart
Mini Dow Jones Indus.-$5 Dec 08 11,322.00 8:25am ET Down 37.00 (-0.33%) Chart
Nasdaq 100 Dec 08 1,735.75 8:35am ET Down 3.75 (-0.22%) Chart
S&P 500 Dec 08 1,244.20 8:34am ET Down 1.80 (-0.14%)