https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/10/11/byron-wien-recession-fears-are-overblown?bt_ee=T%2B2nebrbCk0NiW9hfF1Qmj5TNZz70JiJVG%2FDqq%2BpPs6pnU6cMjwFKPp2xaPW3GPQ&bt_ts=1571483433583
“In 1990, 2000 and 2008, the real Fed funds rate was strongly positive, Wien said, with values of 900, 400-500 and 250 basis points, respectively. There were events – the bursting of bubbles in Japan, technology and housing – that triggered recessions. With the real Fed funds rate barely positive and no bubble about to burst, conditions today are very different.

In 2007, oil prices surged and inflation moved above 4%, Wien said. “Those conditions not in place now that makes me think a recession will be later than we expect.”

Moreover, 2020 is an election year and “Trump does not want to run during a recession,” Wien said.
Without a recession the chances of Trump’s reelection are “perfect,” Wien said. “Trump will do everything in his power to make sure the economy stays at full employment and avoids a recession.”

Npr zgroženi su nemirima u HK,ili Venezueli a žmire na oba oka kad je SA u pitanju.

Tko je moralniji od te dvije države?Ne znam za vas ali za mene je sve to isti k…

Tesla has been given the green light to start manufacturing its cars in China.

The electric carmaker, which is run by billionaire Elon Musk, is building a $2bn (£1.5bn) factory in the eastern city of Shanghai.
Tesla plans to build at least 1,000 of its Model 3s each week in the Chinese factory, which could be up and running within weeks.
he new factory will give Tesla access to China, which is the world’s biggest car market.
It would also help the company avoid higher import tariffs that are imposed on cars made in the US.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50080806

Kapital se brzo prilagođava novim okolnostima,i zarađuje,dok neki sa predrasudama ostaju zakopani sa sa svojim zabludama dok ih vrijeme ne pregazi.

Isto tako Buffet ima udio u “Kineskoj” Tesli,kad sam već kod tog,dionica se može kupiti i u USA:

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns about 8% of BYD.

BYD Co makes rechargeable batteries and cars in Shenzhen in Guangdong province

India to beat US in global economic growth share by 2024; China to remain at top

India will be the second-largest contributor to global growth by 2024, overtaking the share of the US economy, according to a report based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.

About 15.5 percent of global growth will be India’s contribution by 2024, eclipsing the US, whose contribution is likely to fall to 9.2 percent from 13.8 percent, a Bloomberg report says. Although China’s share is likely to fall to 28.3 percent from the current 32.7 percent, it will remain by far the single largest contributor, the report says.

Nema straha za globalno gospodarstvo dok postoje lokomotive zvane India i Kina,moguće su naravno,čak i potrebne povremene recesije,ali ukupno gledano svijet ide naprijed.

@Bigfoot
Relativizirati i izjednacavati komunisticku Kinu sa demokratskim ,kapitalistickim SAD-om je ,po meni,potpuno suludo.
Ne znam dali postoji itko u Hrvatskoj ili zapadu tko bi zelio raditi i zivjeti u Kini.Ako zele,neka probaju.
S druge strane,gotovo svi ili velika vecina zele zivjeti u SAD-u ili nekoj zemlji EU.
Konstatacija da “amerikanci” ne kradu jer nemaju krasti od koga,valjda znaci da su izumili “sve napredno”,a komunisti nisu pa “neka kradu”.To i je modus-vivendi komunista,oteti od onih koji su nesto stvorili,dakle vrednima i sposobnima pa to dijeliti podobnima.
Koliko je Kina privlacna kinezima Tajvana,Hon Konga ,imamo prilike vidjeti.
Samo me zanima gdje ce ti avioni,laznjaci i kopije smjeti letjeti ,osim u Sjevernu Koreju?Mislite da EU nece reagirati na ovo?

@bisakovi
Neznam koliko ste bili i vidjeli tu Ameriku iz prve ruke….Amerika kao i njezini glavni gradovi su trenutno derutni….govorim iskljucivo o drzavi i njenom ulaganju u infrastrukturu i promet(sve vrste prometa)

Privatni sektor im je najjaci na svijetu i tu nemaju konkurencije, al imaju veliki problem sa stanjem u drzavi, te sa infrastrukturom koja je stara i dotrajala…njima doslovno trebaju trilijuni da dodu na nivo sadasnje Kine

Kina je nova sila, to sa kopiranjem i fakeovima je bilo prije 15 godina, a sada je Kina 2 ekonomija svijeta koja radi tocno ono sto Amerika radi cijelom svijetu vec 50 godina….samo jedan problem ima Amerika, a to da je Kineza 2,5 x vise….

Boosted by government support, Japan’s semiconductor industry surpassed the US as the world’s largest chip supplier in the early 1980s, causing wariness and discontent in the US over national security risks and its loss of competitiveness in core technologies.
The Reagan administration regarded Japan as the biggest economic threat to the US. Washington accused Tokyo of state-sponsored industrial policies, intellectual property theft from US companies, and of dumping products on the American market.
Toshiba was one of the companies affected by US actions to prevent the rise of Japan in a trade war that echoes in today’s tensions between the US and China. Photo: ReutersToshiba was one of the companies affected by US actions to prevent the rise of Japan in a trade war that echoes in today’s tensions between the US and China. Photo: Reuters
Toshiba was one of the companies affected by US actions to prevent the rise of Japan in a trade war that echoes in today’s tensions between the US and China. Photo: Reuters
If history is a mirror to the future, the similarities between the spiralling technology stand-off between China and the US and the economic wars waged by the US with Japan – which peaked in the 1980s and 1990s – may be instructive. But there are differences between the two which may predict a different outcome.
The US-Japan economic tensions started in the 1950s over textiles, extended to synthetic fibres and steel in the 1960s, and escalated – from the 1970s to 1990s – to colour televisions, cars and semiconductors, as Japan’s adjusted industrial policy and technology development moved it up the industrial chain.
Boosted by government support, Japan’s semiconductor industry surpassed the US as the world’s largest chip supplier in the early 1980s, causing wariness and discontent in the US over national security risks and its loss of competitiveness in core technologies.
The Reagan administration regarded Japan as the biggest economic threat to the US. Washington accused Tokyo of state-sponsored industrial policies, intellectual property theft from US companies, and of dumping products on the American market.

The US punished Japanese companies for allegedly stealing US technology and illegally selling military sensitive products to the Soviet Union. It also forced Japan to sign deals to share its semiconductor technologies and increase its purchases of US semiconductor products.

“The Trump administration is using similar tactics against China that were used against Japan in the 1980s and 1990s,” said an adviser to the Chinese government, on condition of anonymity, adding that the US was continuing its hegemony to curtail China’s tech development and was trying to mobilise its allies to follow suit.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3014531/lessons-old-trade-war-china-can-learn-japan-experience

Kao što sam već napisao samo potpuno neinformirana ili pristrana osoba može misliti da su trenutnom USA/Kina ratu stvari crno bijele.

USA je krala tehnologiju iz EU sve do industrijske revolucije,nakon rata Njemačku raketnu tehnologiju,u hladnom ratu od Sovjeta i obrnuto…jedan od uvjeta da USA logistički održi UK za vrijeme 2 svj. rata bio je i potpuno prepuštanje Britanske tehnologije u korist USA,istodobno ih kreditima uništila tako da se Britanija više nikad nije oporavila.
I sve je to u redu,tako svijet funkcionira.

@oreskovic1

Sve točno,samo jedan mali ispravak,Kineza ima oko 3,5x više:)

Ako je Amerikanaca 300 milijuna onda je Kineza 4,5x više

Shanghai also has over 150,000 officially registered foreigners, including approximately 31,500 Japanese, 21,000 Americans, and 20,700 Koreans. These numbers are based on official figures, so the real number of foreign citizens in the city is probably much higher.28. kol 2019.

Proporcionalno rastu per capita povećavat će se i populacija zapadnjaka.Pa neće valjda iz bogatije države masovnije seliti u siromašniju?To je kao da Hrvati emigriraju u Albaniju.

@bisakovi
Je li Japan isto komunistička država? 🙂 Jesu li vam oni ok?
Pa u redu je EU reagira na krađu tehnologije,to je posve normalno.Kao i USA.

Oko 5% stanovnika Hong Konga protestira,čak sam iznenađen koliko je Kina blaga prema njima,naravno,da ne daje povoda USA,
Zapadni mediji se zgražaju što je u demonstracijama 14 godišnji mladić izgubio oko,nevjerojatno,da je u USA slična situacija pucalo bi se po stanovništvu.