možda nije primjereno u ovo doba euforije, ali jedan kauboj Hans Wagner, danas je obajvio i ovo:

"The S&P 500 PE ratio is an important determinant of the value of the stock market and the trend of the S&P 500. Historically, the S&P 500 PE ratio has a median of 15.7. Today, the S&P PE ratio is 139 based on a closing price of 1,044 on Friday, September 11, 2009. This assumes the trailing earnings for the S&P 500 companies as reported by Standard & Poor’s for the four quarters ending June 30, 2009. A PE ratio at 139 is not sustainable."

Prije nekog vremena su to već isticali neki drugi kauboji.

Sretno!
[/quote]

ovo pratim intenzivno i potpuna je istina, trenutno stanje je neodrživo. Ali P/E 139 ti je na proljetnim zaradama kada je bila teška potrošačka depresija. Nejka ostane SP na 1050, koliko misliš da će P/E pasti do kraja godine tada?
[/quote]

Proračunavao sam koliki bi S&P trebao biti na kraju 2010. a da bi P/E vrijednost bila na povijesnom prosjeku od 15,7. Baza proračuna je službena S&P-ova procjena kretanja dobiti po dionici u narednom razdoblju.

Dakle, na bazi tih službenih procjena, za P/E 15,7 odgovarala bi vrijednost indeksa S&P 500 od 720 bodova, na kraju 2010 (slovima: dviije tisuće i desete godine).

Naravno, dobit po dionici može biti i bolja i lošija od službeno procijenjene, pa bi u tim slučajevima i odgavarajuća vrijednost S&P Indeksa mogla biti različita. A moguće je i da dioničari prihvate kao "normalnu" vrijednost P/E veću od 15,7.

Isto vrijedi i za procjenu na kraju ove, 2009. godine. U svakom slučaju nije moguć očekivati da će P/E pasti niti blizu prosječnih 15,7, jer bi to značilo veliko rušenje vrijednosti S&P Indeksa.

Brodari u USA opet lipo potežu, i na dobrem volumenu.

DAX(XETRA: ^GDAXI)
Index Value: 5,700.26
Trade Time: 11:45am ET
Change: 71.28 (1.27%) UP
Prev Close: 5,628.98
Open: 5,640.99
Day’s Range: 5,640.94 – 5,713.49
52wk Range: 3,588.89 – 6,235.13

HANG SENG INDEX(HKSE: ^HSI)
Index Value: 21,402.92
Trade Time: 5:59am ET
Change: 536.55 (2.57%) Up
Prev Close: 20,866.37
Open: 21,086.75
Day’s Range: 20,950.38 – 21,403.13
52wk Range: 10,676.30 – 21,403.13

S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 1,064.24 12:04pm ET 11.61 (1.10%) Up
^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,756.64 12:12pm ET 73.23 (0.76%) Up

Po ovome bi Crobex trebao brzo na 4000 [undecid]

DOW9791.78108.37+1.12%

NASDAQ2130.1427.50+1.31%

S&P 5001067.4414.81+1.41%

[smiley]

Ovo ne valja, bit će futuresi sutra crveni… [undecid]

Asian Stocks Rise to One-Year High as Investors Bet on Recovery
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By Patrick Rial and Shani Raja

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a one-year high, as growing investor confidence in the global recovery sent commodity prices higher and prompted Japanese steelmakers to start idled plants.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, rose 1.9 percent in Sydney after saying steel demand will double in the next 15 years. Nippon Steel Corp., the world’s No. 2 producer of the alloy, rallied 3.8 percent after saying it will reopen a furnace. Nissan Motor Co., which gets 34 percent of its revenue in North America, jumped 3 percent after U.S. industrial production increased more than forecast.

“The flow of good economic news has become an avalanche,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy with AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages about $75 billion. “Six months ago, investors were allowing for a Great Depression-type of scenario. Instead, we’re seeing clear evidence of a recovery.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent to 118.55 as of 2 p.m. in Tokyo, the highest since Sept. 9, 2008. The gauge has climbed 68 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 as stimulus measures around the world pulled economies out of recession. Stocks on the gauge are priced at an average 1.6 times book value, up from 1.03 times at the March low.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1 percent as a survey showed the nation’s manufacturers turned optimistic for the first time in almost two years. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.5 percent, as all Asian markets advanced.

Quantitative Easing Fuelled Stock Market Recovery

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13527.html

HSI
21836.52
433.60
+2.03%
NIKKEI
10443.8
173.03
+1.68%
China
3056.717
57.007
+1.9%

izgleda da smo konačno usklađeni s ostatkom planeta

http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/burze/wall-street-general-electric-i-american-express-podigli-indekse,56259.html
http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/burze/azija-msci-asia-pacific-najjaci-u-godinu-dana,56266.html

Danas opet RALLY !

misliš?

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