Zašto plačaju kapital po višoj kamatnoj stopi? [cool]

Inače vrlo perspektivne dionice sa "velikim" FF od 1,5 – 3 % pa kada se nekome sprdne uvali squeeze out onako preko noći. A i mogućnost rasta u Hrvata im je enormna. Kako brojčano tako i sa kupovnom moći jer Hrvati su svaki dan sve bogatiji i stoje u redovima da bi uzeli povoljne kredite koje nam nude ove strane banke. [lol]

Premješteno iz teme: Komentari trgovanja

Evo nešto za medeke sa ZSE-a:

[bye] [shocked] [cry]

"In highly volatile trade Friday, shares plunged some 50 percent for both firms before a partial recovery. Freddie Mac ended with a loss of three percent and Fannie was down 22 percent, but both have lost around 75 percent since the start of the year.

Brad Sorenson, analyst at Charles Schwab & Co. said the companies "affect a much wider swath of the economy than just a typical financial institution, such as Bear Stearns," and that any hint of failure would be "devastating to the US, and indeed the global, financial markets."

Imaju pod sobom 5 trilijuna dolara.
Ja ni ne znam koliko je to ali zvuči puno.
Fannie treba pripremiti 7 milijardi dolara samo da pokrije gubitak u ovom kvartalu, a cjelokupna tržišna kapitalizacija firme je 8 milijardi.
Kad oni zveknu, a samo je pitanje dana, sve će zveknut.
Osim ako ih američka Vlada ne odluči nacionalizirati.
A onda će lijepo pučanstvo to sve otplaćivati i za kojih 5 godina sve će se vratiti u normalu.
Jest da će za sobom povući pola svjetske ekonomije u p.m. ali šta je tu je.
Nije bed

Ne Ameri pozovu Matešu i ekipu da im pokažu kako se saniraju banke iz buđeta i poslije ih prodaju za siću Mittel Europa bankama, bez stresa za domaću javnost i TK. [sealed]

Da posjeduješ neke kognitivne funkcije bilo bi ti jasno da je jučer završila neizvjesnost oko ova dva kreditora. Dobili su nove dioničare koji će bez problema skupiti potreban kapital. Očito da hipotekarni krediti su nekom došli glave a za neke predstavljaju mogućnost dobre zarade.

sava, 12.07.2008. u 11:18

I’m in Las Vegas at Freedom Fest 2008 and heard Steve Forbes speak yesterday. In his talk, he put the subprime mortgage meltdown in perspective by comparing the global subprime losses of $1 trillion (Reuters story here) to the $56 trillion of U.S. household net worth. Sure, $1 trillion is a very significant loss, but it’s relatively insignificant compared to the significant value of U.S. household wealth, less than 2%.

George Soros is characterizing the subprime mortgage situation as “the most severe since the Great Depression.” I’m not sure there is data on household net worth in the 1930s, but I’m pretty sure the stock market losses and the losses from 9,000 bank failures (about 1/3 of all banks) in the 1930s was a lot bigger than 2%.

Senate passes housing bill amid turmoil
Last Updated: July 11, 2008: 6:00 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — After months of debate on Capitol Hill, the Senate on Friday passed a comprehensive housing and foreclosure prevention bill.

But lawmakers’ quest to help cure the ailing housing market is not over yet.

The Senate measure would create a new $300 billion government-backed foreclosure prevention program and strengthen oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two mortgage finance giants, which play a central role in the U.S. housing market, took a thrashing this week on Wall Street as investors worried about their financial health.

Next week, the bill will go back to the House, which is expected to make technical changes and possibly some substantive ones as well.

The House passed a version of the bill in May and may try to amend some Senate provisions to bring them closer in line with its bill. Any changes will then need to be considered by the Senate.

That likely back-and-forth makes it uncertain when lawmakers will be able to send final legislation to President Bush for his consideration.

"It’s not the final stop, but it’s a major step," said one of the lead authors of the bill, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. "My hope will be that they would be willing to accept this Senate bill."

Final passage of a package has been delayed for close to two months due to substantive disagreements as well as countless procedural delays.

On Thursday, Dodd lamented how long it has taken to move the bill through. "Candidly, we can’t wait any longer." He cited the latest foreclosure data, showing 250,000 new foreclosure filings in June, up 53% from a year earlier.

"A lot of us hoped the market would take care of all of this and there would be light at the end of the tunnel," Dodd said. "[But now] the only light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming."

The omnibus housing package attempts to address the housing crisis in several ways. Among them is providing more relief for some borrowers facing foreclosure; increasing access to mortgages in higher-cost areas; modernizing the loan guidelines for the Federal Housing Administration (FHA); and more stringently regulating Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500), both government-sponsored enterprises.

FHA role. Under the Senate bill, the FHA could insure up to $300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for at-risk borrowers in owner-occupied homes if their lenders agree to write down their loan balances to 90% of the current appraised value of their homes.

Lenders would also agree to pay upfront fees to the FHA equal to 3% of a home’s appraised value. Borrowers must agree to pay an annual premium to the FHA equal to 1.5% of their new loan balance and they must also agree to share with the government any profit they realize from selling or refinancing their home.

The cost of the new FHA program – which would begin on Oct. 1 and be in place for just a few years – would be funded by fees from Fannie and Freddie. Thereafter those fees would finance an affordable housing trust fund also created by the bill. The House version of the bill calls for those fees to be used solely for affordable housing.

New regulator for Fannie and Freddie. The GSEs, which grease the wheels of the housing market by guaranteeing the purchase and trade of mortgages, will get a new regulator under the bill. That regulator, among other things, will have a greater say over how well funded the agencies are – a major concern in the markets that has sent stocks in both companies plunging.

"We know they play a central role in our housing. We also know that together they owe over $5 trillion in debt, and they’re thinly capitalized. The way to keep them [from getting into worse shape] is to create a strong regulator to make sure they’re adequately capitalized," Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., another key architect of the bill, said Thursday on the Senate floor.

The investor flight from Fannie and Freddie that began on Monday was due to concerns that the firms weren’t adequately funded relative to the amount of mortgage debt they own or back. Regulators and lawmakers went out of their way to reassure the public and investors.

"These institutions are fundamentally sound and strong," Dodd said at press conference Friday. "In fact, they’re holding capital in excess today of what’s currently required by federal law. …[T]heir portfolios are made up primarily of 30-year fixed rate mortgages."

While the Senate bill calls for the immediate appointment of a new regulator, House Democrats want the appointment to be made 6 months from the date of enactment.

Conforming loan limits. The bill would permanently increase the cap on the size of mortgages guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie to $625,000 from $417,000. The FHA maximum loan limits for high-cost areas would also increase to $625,000. The House bill raises the limit at all three agencies to nearly $730,000.

Higher loan limits will make it easier for borrowers to get mortgages, because they’re more likely to be traded if they are considered conforming.

FHA rules. The bill would update a number of rules for FHA loans. Among them, it would increase to 3.5% from 3% the down payment requirement for borrowers in FHA loans. And it would eliminate a program that has allowed sellers to provide down payment assistance.

The House bill had contained a modified form of the down payment assistance program.

The seller-funded program is largely the reason why the agency’s reserve has fallen by $4.6 billion, according to congressional testimony of FHA Commissioner Brian Montgomery. Currently, that reserve is roughly $16.4 billion.

Housing-related tax credits. The Senate bill includes more than $14 billion in tax credits. One is an $8,000 tax refund for first-time home buyers. The refund, however, serves more as an interest-free loan, since it would have to be paid back over 15 years by the buyer.

Help states buy foreclosed properties. Despite a White House veto threat, the Senate bill still contains a provision that would provide states with $4 billion to buy and fix up foreclosed properties.

The House is expected to debate whether or not the provision should stay and also whether it should be paid for by raising an equal amount of revenue elsewhere. If not, it could be considered emergency spending, in which case lawmakers would not have to compensate for the cost of the provision.

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Kreditna kriza bliži se kraju, ali usporavanje gospodarstva počinje. Koliko će to bit vezano s nama to ćemo još vidjeti. Negdje sam pročito da će nafta rasti max do ožujka 2009. Bilo bi dobro da to tada ne dođe do 250 $ kako su govorili iz Gazproma. Ipak mislim da će se održati u nekim "normalnim okvirima", a to je – ne preko 170$. Optimist sam i pesimist, ali se trudim biti realist

kredina kriza se bližila kraju i u prvom kvartalu, fredi i fani rasli jer su našli svježeg kapitala….
fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

negdje sam pročito da je S&P zaustavio vladu od preuzimanja jer ih je upozorio da im smanjili kreditni rejting ako bi ih preuzeli sad jer se procjenjuje da za sanaciju oba treba preko trilijuna $…što bi bio veliki uteg čak i za US.

Malo o freni i fredi. Ove brojke o 5 trilijunčeka duga treba shvatiti ovako. Najvjerojatnije stvarni gubitak će biti oko 5% odnosno 250 milijardi dolara jer je puno toga su krediti za kuće davno uzete čiji vlasnici uredno plaćaju rate.

Bilo kako bilo njihovi dioničari tj. vlasnici mogu očekivati jednu veliku nulu kako kod da se situacija rasplete što i sad nije neki veliki problem ako se uzme mcap i usporedi ga sa gubitcima na dugu.

Dva su moguća rješenja, država sve to preuzme na sebe i napravi bailout i nacionalizaciju, a drugi je Chapter 11 u kojem će nastradati oni koji su im kupili dug.

Za prvim rješenjem plaču izlobirani političari bilo republikanci bilo demokrati, Wall Street i inozemni kupci duga. Zapravo znači strašan moralni hazard, socijalizam za bogatune i vjerojatno rušenje kreditnog rejtinga Amera na razinu banana republike (državni dug bi im se uduplao). Za nas to znači divljačku inflaciju i naftu preku 200 dolara u roku par mjeseci.

Bankrot s restruktuiranjem znači brisanje vrijednosti dioničara i smanjenja nominalne vrijednosti duga, naravno tu su gubitnici Wall Street, Kinezi, Japanci i Europljani. Svi oni koji su masno zarađivali na spreadu između tog duga i državnih obveznica u doba housing booma u Amera. U slučaju ovoga slijedi dodatna globalna kreditna kontrakcija i povećanje kamata koji jača deflacijski pritisak. Za nas znači još veće kamate i laganu eutanaziju stanogradnje na dulje vrijeme.

Tko zna šta će se dogoditi, ja osobno kako sam scenarij dva jer dosta je više bilo spašavanja bankara i bogatuna u lošim vremenima i njihovih enormnih zarada i bonusa u lošim.

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Nadam se samo da je Sanaderu, Šukerinju i Rumenigeu konačno netko objasnio koliko je globalni financijski sustav rastegnut i kolika nam opasnost prijeti. Ante Čičin Šain znam da pokušava, V. Šonje je u fondovskim vodama i izavlio je veliku glupost o oporavku prije par mjeseci na dnevniku kod Šprajca tako da me grozno razočarao, možda je ih ipak Roha prepao.

Dalje, na forumu se dosta često provlači pa kakve veze ima kriza vani sa poslovanjem hrvatskih firmi, ako to nije legitimni druk za ap,ap u teškim vremenima i spašavanje sopstvene kože na račun većih budala ja im samo mogu poručiti da se ostave burze za sva vremena. Ozbiljan investitor bi morao bolje znati od političara a ne od njih očekivati rješenja i spas.

bas mi je drago da se real bear vratio, iako bas ne kuzim uvijek kaj on to pise