kolega nije "teško" izaći iz ove krize…svi znaju modele, samo oni su toliko radikalni dase nitko ne usuđuje dirati u njih.
nacionalizacija financijskog sektora – zero equity politika
kliring derivata – koji mogu se križaju, a koji ostanu idu za 5-10% vrijednosti ili se drže do dospijeća
nacionalizacija prihodovnih SIV i SPVova
restrukturiranje proizvodnih giganata uz ošte rezove
de-levarge na razinu od maksimalno 10
keynezijanski angažman država u održavanju gospodarstva na kakvoj takvoj razini
i konačno prestanak dominacije dolarskog platnog režima sa svim posljedicama koje to nosi američkom gospodarstvu te kreditorima

sve to ako se napravi, to bi značilo kraj vladavine i bogatstva sadašnje elite, koja drma svijetom već 4 stoljeća…hoće li oni to dozvoliti?
hoće li se u njimaprobuditi altruizam?
bojim se da neće

[thumbsup]

Evo podatak da je crobex ove godine među najboljima u svijetu.

da vidlo se na daxu da neće izdržati….mini H&S i ode to u negativu [thumbsup]

Eto kolega Beholder je predložio rješenje, sad će Dick Fuld i bratija potrčati primjeniti sve mjere kako bi napokon propalo Zapadno Rimsko Carstvo, oprostiti će dugove nama, Africi i ostaloj sirotinji bjelosvjetskoj.

Kuku Lele [bye]

Eno Bil Gates je već krenuo dijeliti siromašnima, samo treba podići vizu i stati u red

Dobit American Expressa pala 79 posto
http://business.hr/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=188d7cd8-5138-47e9-b3ce-b8f6dfe023b5

Kartična kompanija American Express izvijestila je o padu dobiti u četvrtom tromjesečju 2008. godine za 72 posto u odnosu na isto razdoblje godine ranije, navodeći kao razloge kašnjenja s plaćanjem dugovanja i smanjenu potrošnju uslijed produbljene recesije. Dobit American Expressa pala 79 postoDobit je u tom razdoblju dosegnula 238 milijuna dolara, nasuprot 858 milijuna dolara ostvarenih godinu ranije. Istodobno, neto dobit bila je u visini 172 milijuna dolara, što je 79 posto manje u usporedbi s istim razdobljem 2007. godine.

"Naši rezultati u četvrtom tromjesečju odražavaju operativno okruženje koje je među najtežima kojem smo svjedočili u više desetljeća", rekao je u priopćenju izvršni direktor Kenneth Chenault.

U 2008. godini neto dobit kompanije pala je za 34 posto, na 2,63 milijarde dolara, dok su joj prihodi uvećani za tri posto, na 28,37 milijardi dolara, objavila je kompanija.

American Express zatražio je prošle godine 3,5 milijarde dolara državne pomoći za hitne slučajeve radi lakšeg izlaženja na kraj s utjecajima financijske krize. Kvalificirao se za dobivanje pomoći nakon što je promijenio status u bankarsku holding kompaniju.

Promjena statusa također mu je omogućila korištenje dijela vladinog 700 milijardi dolara vrijednog paketa pomoći za financijski sektor.

RIP AMEX

pa s obzirom na goleme količine materijala pisanog od strane stručnjaka koje čitam, mislim da mogu reći da znam [smiley]

[/quote]

pa s obzirom da čitate gomilu pisanog materijala radi se o krivom materijalu, jer da zbilja ulažete u znanje znali bi da ništa ne znate. još se nije rodio taj koji može prognozirati kako će se kretati burzovni indeks sve do 2018. a vi mislite da ste vi taj. evo vidite ja recimo znam da ništa ne znam jer ekonomiju studiram. [bye]

German January Business Confidence Unexpectedly

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNybHpAN6jHw&refer=home

Danas se Amerika neće tako lako izvući kao prethodnih dana, kad je iz minusa završavala u plusu.

Izvješća su prestrašna.

http://www.liderpress.hr/Default.aspx?sid=65712

Nomura posts record $3.8 billion loss

TOKYO (Reuters) — "Nomura Holdings Inc, Japan’s largest brokerage, reported a record $3.8 billion quarterly loss on Tuesday, hit by the cost of integrating Lehman Brothers’ operations, soured trades and its exposure to Iceland and Bernard Madoff."

Jao,jao, danas Japanci 5% u plusu a već sutra će biti 5% u minusu.
[bye]

The Latest Bear Market Sucker’s Rally is Losing Its Steam as an Onslaught of Awful Macro and Earnings News Takes Its
Nouriel Roubini | Jan 14, 2009

I have been predicting for a while that the most recent bear market sucker’s rally would lose its steam and – like the previous bear market rallies in the last 18 months – US and global equities prices would head again towards new lows.

Let me now explain why…

As my work and the one of our research team at RGE Monitor predicts (we will publish later this week our 2009 Global Economic Outlook, a 75 page research piece for our clients and we recently published our US outlook) this will be the worst US recession in the last 50 years and the worst synchronized global recession in decades.

For a few weeks since late November equity markets ignored the onslaught of much worse than expected macro news (and all the new were really worse than awful) and had a nice 25% bear market sucker’s rally. But the drumbeat of terrible – and worse than expected – macro news and earnings news and financial news has finally taken a toll on the delusional market belief that the worst was over for financial markets and for equity markets and that the US and global economy would recover in the second half of 2009. So equity prices have already reversed more than half of their most recent bear market rally as the lousy macro news have finally shocked in the last week the wishful thinkers.

Indeed, the retail sales figures published today confirmed a shopped-out, saving-less and debt-burdened US consumer is now faltering as job losses, income losses, fall in home wealth, fall in equity wealth, high and rising debt and debt servicing ratios and a severe credit crunch take a severe toll on the ability of consumers to spend. And reduction in spending and deleveraging of the US consumer will take years to rebuild the savings rate of a household sector now hit by a severe shock to its net worth (as equity and home values fall while debts have been rising) and shocked in its ability to generate income as job losses mount and the unemployment rate surges.

Our research at RGE Monitor suggests that the US and global recession will continue at least all the way until Q4 of 2009 (a nasty 24 months U-shaped recession) and that the recovery in 2010-11 will be very weak with growth in the 1% range that is well below a potential of 2.75%. And we cannot rule out that a more severe L-shaped stag-deflation (as in Japan in the 1990s) will take hold. Indeed, as I argued recently:

While the odds of a systemic financial meltdown have been reduced by the actions of the Group of Seven and other economies, severe vulnerabilities remain.

The credit crunch will persist and spread beyond mortgages. Deleveraging will continue, as thousands of hedge funds — many of which will go bust — and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus causing price declines and driving more insolvent financial institutions out of business. Credit losses will mount as the recession deepens. And a few emerging-market economies will certainly enter a full-blown financial crisis.

So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies. Currently, the probability of an L-shaped, stag-deflation is now rising to a third, while the probability of a severe U-shaped recession is two-thirds. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy starts to recover — however slowly –in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

So while our benchmark scenarios sees a severe U-shaped global recession with very weak growth recovery in 2010 we cannot exclude the possibility of a worse outcome, i.e. an L-shaped recession that – in our view – has at least a one third probability. So the worst is ahead of us rather than behind

With my forecast of 2009 earnings per share for S&P500 firms being in the 50 to 60 dollars range and with P/E ratio likely to be in the 10 to 12 range given a severe global recession the S&P500 could bottom – at some point in 2009 – at best at a level of 720 and, in a worse scenario, as low as 500 or 600. So, the worst is indeed still ahead of us.

RGE Monitor – 2009 U.S. Economic Outlook
RGE Lead Analysts | Jan 13, 2009
It is clear that 2008 was a dismal year for the economy and financial markets and it is now official that the current U.S. recession started already in December 2007. So, how far are we into this recession that has already lasted longer than the previous two (the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions lasted 8 months each)? We forecast that the U.S. economy is only half way through a recession that will be the longest and most severe in the post war period. U.S. GDP will continue to contract throughout all of 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will thus last about two years. Our forecast is much worse than the current consensus forecast expecting a growth recovery in the second half of 2009; we also predict significantly weak growth recovery – well below potential – in 2010.

One final look at 2008 will reveal a very weak fourth quarter with GDP growth contracting -6%, in the wake of a sharp fall in personal consumption and private domestic investments. We see the real GDP growth contraction playing out through the year as follows: Q1 2009 -5%; Q2 2009 -4%; Q3 2009. -2.5%; Q4 2009 -1%, adding up to a yearly real GDP growth of -3.4% for the U.S. in 2009.

Personal Consumption

A shopped-out, saving-less and debt-burdened U.S. consumer lost its resilience and started to give up in the third quarter of 2008, when for the first time in almost two decades, personal consumption contracted. With personal consumption making up over two-thirds of aggregate demand, the outlook for the U.S. consumer is at the center of the dynamics that will play out in the real economy in 2009.

In our view, personal consumption will continue to contract quite sharply throughout 2009 as a result of negative wealth effects from housing and equity market losses, the disappearance of home equity withdrawal from the second half of 2008 on, mounting job losses, tighter credit conditions and high debt servicing ratios (the debt to income ratio went from 70% in the 90s, to 100% in 2000 to 140% now). This retrenchment of the U.S. consumer will result in a painful rebalancing in the economy that will eventually restore the household saving rate of a decade ago to increase the now sharply depleted net worth of the household sector.

The wealth losses for households related to the fall in home prices are roughly $4 trillion so far, and are clearly bound to increase further as home prices continue to fall –eventually reaching the $6-8 trillion range (compatible with a 30-40% fall in home prices peak to trough). With a negative wealth effect of 6 cents on the dollar, the reduction in personal consumption could amount to a whopping $500bn. And negative wealth effect from fall in equity prices – on the wake of a bleak 2009 for corporate profits – will also contribute to the contraction in personal consumption by an estimated $100bn (compatible with a 20% contraction in the stock markets from the level at the beginning of 2009.)

This adjustment is consistent with a rebalancing of the economy that will over time bring the saving rate to a positive level of roughly 5-6% where it was a decade ago, for this to happen consumption has to contract by an amount close to $800bn.