Kriza ko da je zapravo tek počela…
Japanese Firms Expecting Economy to Worsen in ’09
Most leading Japanese companies expect the country’s economy to worsen in 2009 amid uncertainty over the state of U.S. economy and deteriorating domestic demand, a survey by the Mainichi newspaper showed on Sunday.
Eighty-five percent of the companies surveyed said Japanese economic conditions will continue to deteriorate in 2009, while 13 percent said the economy would remain in bad shape but not worsen, the newspaper said.
No company surveyed expected the economy to improve this year.
Mainichi conducted the survey between early and mid December, polling 121 leading companies, including Sony and Nissan Motor.
More than 60 percent of the companies do not expect the world’s second-largest economy to bottom out until 2010[/b], (PAZI OVO !!!!!!) the poll showed. No companies expected a recovery during the first half of 2009, while 22 percent expected the economy would recover ing the second half of this year, it showed.
Japanese exports posted a record annual fall in November as companies felt the pinch from a strong yen and weak global demand, adding gloom to an economy already in recession.
The decline came as the global financial and credit crisis hurts Japan’s major export destinations, with the United States in recession and once fast-growing Asia economies seeing slowing growth.
Vaš link
Što manje očekuju bolje za nas. Objava recesije često znači izlazak iz iste.
Kada već netko spominje deficit robne razmijene ….
Koliko je na visoki deficit robne razmjene imao uticaj jakog cjenovnog skoka sirovina i energenata!
Sjetite se nafte na 147 dolara. Sada je 44 dolara. Takvu sudbinu su doživjele cijene svih sirovina.
Ne bih nikome želio soliti pamet ali ako ste stručni koliko ste hiperaktivni nadam se jednostavnom odgovoru kao npr: Deficit će u 4Q pasti ili je pao 40%!
Koliko je na visoki deficit robne razmjene imao uticaj jakog cjenovnog skoka sirovina i energenata!
Sjetite se nafte na 147 dolara. Sada je 44 dolara. Takvu sudbinu su doživjele cijene svih sirovina.[/quote]
utjecaj cijena energenata i (nekih) sirovina na naš decit je znatan, ali – molimo Boga da pad tih cijena ne bude ono što će činiti glavni pritisak na smanjivanje deficita, jer to će tek tada značiti: ne Hrvatska, nego svijet je u PRAVOJ "banani" (cijene energenata i sirovina će "duže" ostati na ovakvim razinama isključivo ako dođe do ozbiljnog prolongiranja ove "svjetske recesije", još nam samo treba doživjeti po prvi puta neku "svjetsku" depresiju, "svjetska" nije bila niti 30-ih niti za WW2, e sigurno da nam ne treba niti sada, barem ako se nismo spremni odreći načina na koji smo naučili živjeti na jedno 10-20 godina!, molimo Boga da ne dođu takva vremena)
Ne bih nikome želio soliti pamet ali ako ste stručni koliko ste hiperaktivni nadam se jednostavnom odgovoru kao npr: Deficit će u 4Q pasti ili je pao 40%!
Nemam dovoljno podataka (trebalo bi sad malo proučavati podatke sa dzs-a i računati…), ali otprilike obzirom na udio nafte i čelika…, ako je pao deficit robne razmijene (što bi bilo iznenađenje, obzirom na ostale faktore koji utječu na povećanje: uvoz većina roba nezaustavljivo raste, a izvoz već pati!), sigurno da nije pao u takvih iznosima, nemoguće, ne više od 10 %.
Strategists See 17% S&P 500 Rise on Fed Cuts After Saying ‘Buy’
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — The same Wall Street strategists who told investors to buy stocks in the worst year since 1937 are even more bullish than a year ago, predicting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rise 17 percent.
UBS AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG say the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates to as low as zero percent will help revive the U.S. economy and drive investors back to equities. Cheaper fuel prices and more than $850 billion in spending on roads, bridges and health care will send stocks higher, the strategists said.
Even if they’re right, the S&P 500 would end 2009 at 1,056, 28 percent below where the benchmark index for American equities started in 2008 and 35 percent lower than where the analysts said it would be now, based on the consensus of 11 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Some of the biggest investors are growing more optimistic as the S&P 500 advanced 24 percent since reaching an 11-year low on Nov. 20.
“Equities usually find a bottom about halfway through a recession,” said Binky Chadha, the New York-based chief U.S. equity strategist at Deutsche Bank who predicted the S&P 500 would climb 12 percent in 2008 and expects a 26 percent surge this year. “If policy gets it right, we should find a bottom and start to turn around. And if that happens, then it’s time to buy stocks.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6psLJRctme0
DAX ko da treba malo veću euforiju da krene preko 5000 bodova. Nikako da prijeđe.
DAX 4,986.50 (-0.27%)
sorry nije minus nego plus.
Futuresi u Amera, u CRVENOM.
Čini mi se da će i DOW zapeti oko probijanja 9000 bodova.
Vaš link
Intervju s guvernerom
http://www.bankamagazine.hr/default.aspx?TabId=77&View=Details&ItemID=46730
Prodaja novih vozila u Japanu na najnižoj razini u 34 godine