a ja mislio da toga nema kod nas [lol] [lol] [lol]

interesira me da li je netko razmišljao o sljedećem scenariju:
dionica ide cicimici od 36xy-37yx, NE SKOČI neposredno kod dokapa, ali nakon dokapa padne na 28xy-2999,99. treba uzeti u obzir da je ovaj dokap i cijela priča oko ulpl nastala u jeku ove umjetne kvazikorekcije i da više ništa nije toliko predvidljivo, a kamo li kretanje dionice slično kao u 3 prethodna dokap. sumnjam u cijenu ulpl od 3000 kn nakon dokapa, iskreno… (mislim da će biti ispod)
any comment?

Obzirom na najfriškije vijesti, mislim da si u pravu…

Global demand will offset US slump

Demand and single-hull conversions will sustain crude tankers but product tankers may suffer

Jerry Frank – Thursday 28 February 2008

JITTERY tanker markets only just recovering from last year’s prolonged slump can rely on global demand growth and the conversion of single hulls to absorb the affect of an US economic slowdown, according to top Norwegian analysts.

Fears that the gathering problems for the world’s largest economy will take a further toll on crude oil sea transport are off the mark, according to Oslo-based shipping analysts Carnegie Securities Research.

But the analysts added that the Atlantic product tanker markets could be in for a choppy ride.

Carnegie analyst Børge Johansen this week told industry delegates at the Lloyd’s List ship finance conference in Copenhagen that for every 1% decline in US demand for fuel (equivalent to around 200,000 barrels per day), only about 30% of this would hit the crude tanker trades.

“Slowing US petroleum demand will be absorbed mostly by products imports rather than crude imports and refinery runs,” he said.

This, together with other factors, has moulded Carnegie’s forecast for 2008 VLCC rates at $70,000 per day.This is well below the IMAREX FFA curve with spot prices at present in backwardation (higher than for later contracts), encouraging further demand for prompt delivery.

Faced with the vagaries of the US economy, the tanker market is also benefiting from the stampede by very large crude carrier owners to profit from the dry bulk shipping boom and convert single-hull vessels into capesizes.

Carnegie estimates this will boost prospects for at least the next 12 months. Around 16 vessels have already exited the VLCC fleet in the second half of 2007 for conversion into dry bulk and offshore units and a further 26 are expected to leave the fleet over the first six months of this year.

“That amounts to a total of 42 vessels probably taken out of trade during this 12 month period, or 8.5% of total vessels,” Mr Johansen said.

Good news for the tanker markets looks bad for the product tanker market, particularly the medium-range trades serving the US Atlantic coast from continental Europe and LR1 trades from theBaltic.

Both trades have faired better than the product tanker trades east of Suez, but Fearnleys last week reported that LR1s in the Atlantic basin were languishing at around W185 and MRs were recently down to W185.

The US is rebuilding around 50% of its commercial stockdraws from last year, with low inventory levels also reported in other consumer nations such as Japan and South Korea.

Chinese product imports are also expected to decline by around 7%, although demand for oil overall is expected to increase in the world’s fastest- growing economy by 5%.

But figures from the IEA and EIA point to actual growth in global oil demand for the US domestic economy, with a 3.7% rise in crude imports expected this year compared with no growth in 2006…….

Ima nas koji tako razmišljamo,ima,ima[angry] Tako će i biti.A u najnovijem lideru piše da je neshvatljivo da su mali dioničari i treći put podigli cijenu u tolikoj mjeri zbog obavjesti o dokapu[embarass]

ja mislim da sam znao. uzeo sam kamaru dionica i razmišljam dal’ dolazi period rasta na kojih 4300 ili dao bog više.
nisam imao keša za ulpl i dao sam figuru (koja se, doduše, pokazala lošom) – za poziciju koja je upitna (sumnja u 3k kn nakon dokapa). ako ulpl bude cicimicila, bit će dokap. kocka je bačena!

Da li netko zna reći kako su se ponašali članovi uprave i najveći dioničari kod prošlih dokapitalizacija, tj. da li su i onda prodavali količine od 1000 kom?
pozdrav

Sve što su prodavali bili su obavezni prijaviti pa lijepo potraži…
http://www.zse.hr/default.aspx?id=10006&dionica=ULPL-R-A

Ma ne stignem na žalost pažljivo pogledati sve u natrag i staviti u korelaciju broj dionica, cijene i postotke vlasništva. Kod zadnje dokapitalizacije nije bilo otpuštanja dionica od trenutka odluke o dokapitalizaciji. Bilo je nešto manje prije odluke, ali to mi se čini poštenije jer cijena nije bila još narasla. Imam dobro mišljenje o ovoj firmi, ali ovakvi potezi posebno ako postanu model ponašanja za ostale iz uprave, mi ne uljevaju povjerenje.

Nakon dokapa nema šanse da bude 3000kn.Svaki put nakon dokapa zbog količine novih dionica padne niže nego prošli put što je normalno.Kao i uvjek,tržište je u pravu i spremno je platiti dionicu toliko koliko vrijedi.[smiley] Namjerno demantiram sam sebe u odnosu na neki moj prijašnji post jer se slažem s uzrečicom da samo budale ne mjenjaju mišljenje.

U dokap. sasvim sigurno ulazim (zadnji put je prošlo skoro pa savršeno).
S obzirom da imam dobar plan kupnje, prodaje, kupnje [rolleyes] vjerujem da ću omastiti brk! “uzevši u obzir manju cijenu” prije i poslije dokap.
Naravno uz sreću na koju raćunam jer iskustva mi fali na tone!