But, if one factors in the variable of lower bunker costs, then the projected reduction in spot rate levels on TCE revenues in 2009, should still remain above the 10-year average (1998-2007) in each vessel sector.
Trebam li prevodit ?
Trebam li također reći da je isti MQQuiling predviđao 2008 kao lošu godinu za tankere, a bila je najbolja u povijesti …..
odlicni postovi kolega žmrklić,evo 100tke! [thumbsup]
Aj bar da stavimo cijeli članak, što bi bilo kulturno od kolege, jer je opet dijelove izbacio
Analysts at McQuilling Services have reiterated their pessimism for the tanker markets for the next few years, warning of significantly weaker demand relative to supply and slumping freight rates.
Gloomy economic picture not condusive for oil demand
McQuilling’s January 2009 Tanker Market Outlook pegged tonnage oversupply to develop during the 2009-2013 period “as a result of several years of unbridled new vessel ordering and a collapse of tanker transportation demand.”
“Demand has evaporated due to the international economic upheaval that fully manifested itself during the second half of 2008,” said the report.
The global economic slowdown is forecast to significantly press down tonnage demand over the 2009-2013 period as “energy consumption stalls in developed economies and moderates in emerging economies.”
The primary conclusion of McQuilling’s latest Tanker Market Outlook is “that spot tanker markets will be substantially weaker in 2009 than in 2008.”
McQuilling also expects continued weakening through the forecast period of 2009-2013 as “tonnage oversupply continues through this time-frame.”
TCE earnings in 2009 have also been pegged to be substantially below 2008 levels, but they “should still exceed the 10-year historical average (1998-2007) in each vessel sector,” said McQuilling.
“By 2013 however, we expect TCE revenues to fall below this average as rates generally decline throughout the forecast period,” it added.
The analysts at McQuilling have, prior to this latest Outlook, already sounded warnings about the near future of the tanker market in at least two previous reports in January.
In the earlier one, with regards to tonnage availability, McQuilling said that the “2009 supply picture looks quite disturbing…”
Without counting newbuilding delays in 2008 that will roll-over to 2009, the expected fleet additions are nine times the number of fleet exits, according to that report.
The second report repeated the prediction that “the supply picture will have a negative effect on the freight market in 2009…”
“It seems that the last variable with any wiggle room is bunker prices, which will have to average significantly lower in 2009 to generate TCE revenues anywhere near last year’s levels,” it added.
Lošim vijestima kao da nema kraja
Obama’s policies ‘spell doom’ for tanker owners
"US President Barack Obama’s energy policies are holding to pre-election promises to end the need for crude oil imports from Venezuela and the Middle East.
“This spells doom for [tanker] owners; the US is still the world’s largest crude oil consumer, and voyages moving Middle Eastern crude to the US form an important part of global tanker traffic.
Obama said in August that “if I am President, I will immediately direct the full resources of the Federal Government and the full energy of the private sector to a single, overarching goal – in 10 years, we will eliminate the need for oil from the entire Middle East and Venezuela.
According to Gibson, “these ambitious energy proposals represent a major threat to tanker demand in the long term."
Dakle, američki predsjednik Obama poduzima mjere da potpuno sreže uvoz nafte sa Bliskog Istoka i Venecuele.
A znamo jako dobro da je Amerika najveći uvoznik nafte na svijetu.
Znate li što to znači za tankerske kompanije koje najviše ovise upravo o tom tržištu?
Potop.
Samo je pitanje vremena kad će i ekipa iz Top 10 to shvatiti
Više puta dolazi do nesporazuma na ovom forumu, što se tu uspoređuje ( tip broda, routes te dali su Spot rates ili TC rates.
Evo priloga:
[
by Janet Porter
January 29, 2009 12:00 PM
WHETHER charter and freight rates are inextricably linked has been a point of debate in the container shipping trades over the years.
When the charter market played a much smaller role, the argument tended in favour of a disconnect. Now that chartered vessels account for almost half of total fleet capacity, with even some of the world’s biggest containerships owned by tonnage rather than service providers, the two markets are much more entwined.
Charter rates may be driven by ship supply and demand, and freight rates by cargo supply and demand, but what happens in one is clearly likely to be influenced by developments in the other.
That much is obvious.
Yet it is still important to distinguish between the two when analysing the performance of the container shipping industry.
Charter rates matter to those companies that own the ships and to those lines that hire them.
Freight rates matter to those same lines that need to fill their ships, and to shippers that require cargo transport services.
So operators benefit from low charter rates and high freight rates.
But that difference seems to have escaped some analysts who issue headline-grabbing predictions of future container rate trends, without any qualification about which part of the market is being evaluated.
If those same researchers go on to publish company result forecasts, what are the projections based on – a basic misunderstanding of how the industry is structured?
Financial services have already lost all credibility in the wider world. Is it any wonder?
Dakle, američki predsjednik Obama poduzima mjere da potpuno sreže uvoz nafte sa Bliskog Istoka i Venecuele.
A znamo jako dobro da je Amerika najveći uvoznik nafte na svijetu.
Znate li što to znači za tankerske kompanije koje najviše ovise upravo o tom tržištu?
Potop.
Samo je pitanje vremena kad će i ekipa iz Top 10 to shvatiti
a zašto si se ti toliko zapijenio da nama objasniš da se tankerima tako crno piše……
vjerojatno nema TNPL pa opnda ohladi malo, nije nitko od nas maljoljetan, neka ulaže gdje misli da mu je najbolje,……
Caribbean tanker rate 62% down
"The cost to transport crude oil from the Caribbean on Aframax tankers has dropped 62 percent in four weeks as rising stockpiles of crude oil and the weakening U.S. economy reduced demand for shipments. Tanker rates dropped as U.S. crude inventories reached 338.9 million barrels, the highest level since August 2007, according to a Jan. 28 Energy Department report.
Aframaxes today were hired for an average rate of Worldscale 75, according to New York-based Poten & Partners and Lone Star said. WS 75 is about $19,480 a day after expenses, such as fuel and port fees."
Jao,jao.
Zamislite pad zarade od 62% u mjesec dana.
R&B [bye]
Jao,jao.
Zamislite pad zarade od 62% u mjesec dana.
R&B [bye]
– ej usporedi malo što si pisao na temi ATPL i tu.
– nikako ne kužim zašto po pisanju želiš biti drugi Baron.
– ili je ovo najvjerojatnije pokušaj rušenja cijene dionice zbog jeftinog dokupa.
– pa zar zbilja misliš kako još ima takvih budala.
– ali sam ispadaš isto pišući na takav način.
– nije ni mene puno briga za ovu dionicu, dosta sam prodala i još ostalo nešto malo.
– ATPL mi je puno bolja zbog same likvidnosti.
– ali TNPL je sasvim o.k.
– flota nova.
– sada kada je loše išlo ATPL, TNPL su vukli tankeri.
– kada bude loše tankerima, TNPL će vući brodovi za suhi teret.
– a informacije radi, i ATPL je naručila 2 tankera u zamjenu za jedan suhi.
– konačno su i oni shvatili kako je disperzija nužna.
– isto kao i kod dionica.
– nego kolika će ono biti dobit po dionici TNPL.
– vidim dobro vladaš engleskim, nisi glup, pa onda sigurno i kužiš što pitam.
– I love this game.
Pozdrav !
p.s. tu postate jako duge članke na engleskom.
– puno bi bili korisniji prijevodi u par rečenica, ono što je pisac htio reći.
– ti tekstovi su puni stručnih termina, koje i ja teško kužim.
– iako jako dobro znam engleski, puno puta mi je prenaporno to čitati i prevoditi.
danas je primopredaja broda za tankersku u brodosplitu.mirno moree i puno $$$$$$…
Ma s kim se ti svađaš Ivana – spot vozarine na mediteranu su samo u zadnja dva mjeseca šetale između 20000 USD i 100000 USD po danu, kakve on gluposti posta bljah [cool]
A s trenutnom cijenom bunkera, i na 20000 USD zarađuju.
Tanker trough
04.02.2009.
"Decent levels of fixing in the Persian Gulf, West Africa and the Mediterranean failed to boost rates on Wednesday, after tonnage had built up during a period of slack demand.
In the Middle East, the 299,000–dwt World Lion (built 2004), owned by BW Shipping, was fixed to China off 15 February by Bluelight at Worldscale (WS) 41 ($36,000 per day), down from WS42.5 to Asia on Tuesday.
It remains to be seen how much lower owners are prepared to go, as they are already close to break-even levels for modern ships.
The lack of deals in recent days took their toll in West Africa, with the 147,000–dwt suezmax Nataly (built 1993), owned by Murmansk Shipping, reported fixed at only WS65 (a little above $30,000 per day) to the US Gulf off 26 February. Rates had been assessed at around WS75 to WS80 on Tuesday.
Aframaxes were still struggling at five-year lows in the Mediterranean. One vessel was booked at WS70 ($14,900 per day) by BP from Ceyhan cross-Med on 12 February, unchanged from Tuesday."
Za one koji ne razumiju engleski, stanje je sve gore i gore.
Ukratko, još par tjedana i Tankerska će morati platiti da preveze naftu.
Ne bi bilo fer prema ostalima da ostanu uskraćeni za ove friške vijeti jer zmrklic samo posta kako je sve super i kako se ništa ne treba brinuti.
A to radi od kad je TNPL bila 4500 kuna.
[bye]
predlažem da koga zanima zaista nešto o tenkerima, da prouči dokument koji je tachman postao, necu više odgovarat na gluposti od dotičnog kolege – spot vozarine su doista jako volatilne, ali ja nisam pisao ap ap kada su bile pošli tjedan na 50000 USD/DAY, niti kada su u 12 mejsecu bile 100000 USD/DAY – možda zato jer su TNPL tankeri u TC-ovima [cool]
TC ugovori su još uvijek stabilni – vidjet cemo ….