Prošla godina je bila dno cilkusa za tankere.

@ lopina – ti daješ dojam da se želiš što prije iskrcat, lakše malo.

Ja sam u ovoj dionici jer se uskoro dolazi važan moment – potpuno izbacivanje single hull tankera.
Novogradnje zamjenjuju stare brodove, stari signle hull tankeri idu u rezališta. ( 35% flote su single hull)

Ukoliko se poklopi nekoliko stvari, mogao bi se generirati superciklus kod tankera, koji bi mogao dovesti do situacije kao kod bulkera 2007. ( naravno ovo ej samo moje razmišljanje – volio bi mišljenja )

Ne nisam se želio iskrcati,nego me je stislo s obzirom da sam previše izložen TNPL i prijetio mi je
margine caal kada smo bili na 3.150.Sada se već lakše diše,a ja iz ove dionice ne izlazim prije
5.000,ali obavezno namjeravam dočekati 15.04.2009.kada bi i 1Q trebao potvrditi
ovu godinu za koju već možemo reći da će biti bolja nego lani iz osnovnog posla,nego prošla sa
prodajom brodova.Očekujem uskoro neku lovu pa ću se i ja malo smiriti i na miru kupovati ,ako
bude moguće.
Informacija da tankeri sa dvostrukim dnom idu u rezališta je odlična ,jer TNPL ima modernu tankersku flotu sa dvostrukim dnom.Praktično znači da će se pojaviti veća potražnja za tankerima ,jer je
očito da su prošle godine bili na dnu.Sada je situacija vrlo dobra.

Ipak ste u pravu.Ne kaže se uzalud:ne bacati bisere pred svinje!.Toliko smo komentirali TNPL da je
svaki malo ozbiljniji investitor imao dovoljno podataka i analiza da se odluči za ovu dionicu.
Prihvačam kritiku.Malo ću smanjiti intezitet pisanja i lagano kupovati.

Hehe kolega, vi biste likvidirali flotu naše TNPL? [wink] ….lapusus, naravno

pitanje za zmrklića: do kada tankeri s jednostrukim dnom (oplatom) smiju voziti?

@ apothekar – do kraja 2010

Shipping: Better times ahead?
Tuesday, 02 September 2008
Weakening of freight rates is a short-term phenomenon that will impact the shipping sector. But, healthy demand and supply bottlenecks will ensure stable growth for companies in this sector. A slowdown in consumption due to a weakening global economy has resulted in a drop in demand for shipping services. This,
coupled with fears of a supply overhang, has led to a steep decline in freight rates for tankers which transport crude and oil products as well as cargo carriers that deliver iron ore and coal. The Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Dirty Tanker Index which measure cost of shipping dry commodities and crude have dipped 40 per cent apiece over their respective highs in May and July this year.
The impact of this is visible on the stock prices of shipping companies which have tanked between 19-42 per cent since May versus a 15 per cent decline in the Sensex.
Though things have looked better since July except for Bharati Shipyard and Shipping Corporation which have given negative returns, most companies have however returned far less than Sensex’s 12.5 per cent.
While the drop in American consumption of petroleum products has caused a blip in the demand for oil and thus hiring rates for tankers, the slowdown in construction activity in China and factory closures before the start of Olympics reduced the demand for commodities and bulk vessels.
Though the situation does not look too appetising, what are the implications of the current trends on the fortunes of shipping companies and ship builders?
We look at the various segments including tankers, dry bulk, containers and specialised ships to ascertain the short- to -medium term movement of freight rates, supply of ships and growth prospects for Indian shipping companies and ship builders.
Demand and Freight rates
Tanker freight rates
Tankers with over 36 per cent of world’s seaborne trade are the largest segment of the shipping business. The tanker market has been going through choppy waters in the recent past.
The decline in tanker rates should however be seen in light of the unusual increase in rates in Q2 (typically a lean period) driven by higher oil cargo movement between Atlantic and Pacific basins (and partly due to conversion of vessels to dry bulk/Offshore carriers).
Analysts estimate that the demand for tankers will remain subdued and this will lead to softening of charter rates over the short term. Some upward movement, however, might be witnessed due to seasonal variations.
Says S S Kulkarni, secretary general, Indian National Shipowners Association, “Weather patterns, especially weather disturbances (during September and October) and the severity of winter among other things, will decide the course of freight rates for tankers over the next two quarters.”
While last year the weather was calm and the winter was less severe causing tanker rates to drop, this year, with Tropical Storm Gustav expected to hit the US gulf coast by Thursday, freight rates could spike.
Three years ago, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed more than 100 platforms and led to a temporary shut down of 92 percent of oil output and 83 percent of natural gas production in that area. Freight rates, which are currently hovering at around $50,000 per day (YTD average $70,000 per day), should firm up once old freighters are scrapped.
“This is likely to happen if bunker rates (fuel costs to run a shipping line) remains at the current levels as it becomes unviable to run these vessels at these levels,” says Manish Sharma, associate director, KPMG Advisory Services.
Tanker demand
The demand for tankers is primarily driven by the demand for oil. Analysts estimate that in developed countries that form the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, consumption of oil is expected to drop by 1.2 per cent to 48 million barrels per day in 2009.
Demand and Freight rates

Tanker demand
The demand for tankers is primarily driven by the demand for oil. Analysts estimate that in developed countries that form the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, consumption of oil is expected to drop by 1.2 per cent to 48 million barrels per day in 2009.
Varun Shipping
Varun Shipping is a leading player in the LPG transporting segment, with about 70 per cent share of all PSU controlled LPG cargo entering India. The company should benefit from the country’s growing energy demand and its dependence on the imports. While this will ensure volume growth, freight rates are expected to remain firm due to shortage of vessels.
The company operates majority of its fleet in the hydrocarbon sector. This includes 12 LPG carriers, three double-hull Aframax crude tankers, one product tanker and five AHTSV.
This is also a reason, that the company is less affected with the recent decline in the dry cargo/tanker rates. Importantly, the company is now focusing on the offshore segment, where the demand and the realisations are relatively high. It is increasing fleet in this segment and has recently taken delivery of a specialised AHTS used for deep sea oil exploration activity.
As a result of these efforts, revenue from offshore has gone up from mere 3.55 per cent (Rs 23.9 crore) in FY07 to 19.46 per cent (Rs 165.5 crore) in FY08. The company is expecting this to rise further to 25 per cent in FY09.
ABG Shipyard
ABG Shipyard, the largest private shipyard, has been the key beneficiary of the higher demand for support vessels (SV) or ships used in oil exploration and other activities. Its current order book of Rs 8,985 crore, which is almost 8.1 times its FY08 revenue, provides revenue visibility for the next four to five years.
While the growth in order book has largely been driven by demand from the oil and gas sector, the company has also benefited from demand for small and specialised vessels such as cost guard, pollution control and short sea trade vessels used in different activities by corporate and government agencies, which accounts for over 25 per cent of its order book.
The critical part is the expansion of capacities, which will help in timely execution of existing orders and to tap the upcoming opportunities in the sector.
ABG is expanding its capacities through organic and inorganic initiatives. It acquired Vipul Shipyard to expand its Surat facility, which is expected to be operational by FY09 and will result in an increase of about 40 per cent in capacity to 44 vessels.
The company’s Dahej facility will be fully commissioned by the end of FY2010, which will have capacity to produce four off-shore rigs and ships up to 1,20,000 dwt. Notably, the company is setting up its biggest shipyard on a 300 acre land in South Gujarat at an investment of Rs 1,200 crore.
However, this facility will become operational in about three years and will build only 6-8 large vessels (annual revenue potential of around Rs 2,000 crore). In ship repairing, which is a growing and high margin business, ABG is in the process of acquiring Western India Shipyard Company (WIS).
In FY08, WIS reported revenues of Rs 43.66 crore and net loss of Rs 28.73 crore. WIS currently has capabilities to repair vessels up to 60,000 dwt. Post restructuring and integration with ABG, prospects for WIS also look good. Overall, the prospects look good and the strong order book and expansion plans should see ABG grow at 35-40 per cent annually over the next three years.

Ukratko bitno iz ove čitabe: Stari single hull tankeri postižu niske vozarine, skoro neisplative, pa čim stignu novi tankeri idu u rezališta. dakle vrši se zamjena staro za novo, ali se staro ne može prodati za dobre pare kao kod ATPL.

Drugo, prošle godine je zima bila slaba, pa treba drukat za dugu i jaku zimu, onda vozarine idu ap ap [thumbsup]

Pa Tankerska vec odavno vise nema single skin tj. single hull tankera u svojoj floti, tako da je ovakav post besmislen.

Drugo, iznenadilo me kako na ovom topicu nije komentirano nedavno istupanje capt. Stanka Banica, dugogodisnjek CEO Tankerske, koji je pocetkom 1990tih spasija firmu od Tudjmanove "privatizacije" tj. sudbine rijecke CroatiaLine tj. Jugolinije.

Clanka morete procitata na ovom linku:

http://www.jutarnji.hr/clanak/art-2008,8,12,barac_tankerska,129600.jl

a iz njega se moze lagano nazrijeti i zasto su dionice TNPL dozivile ovi slump protkelih tjedana.

Takodjer, zanimljivo mi je kako je Poslovni.hr prenija (i odmah brzinski dezavuira) te Baniceve tvrdnje te kako ostali HR mediji nisu pokazali nikakv interes za tu izjavu, iako se radi o dionicam jedne od najvridnijih hrvatskih firmi.

@ bestiale – znam aj jako dobro da ih TNPL nema, teško da je post besmislen, jer je najvažnije da broj brodova ne bude prevelik. Da li je netko bio na skupstini ?

TNPL ima tankersku flotu sa dvostrukim dnom.Prosječna starost tankera sa Dugim otokom i blizancem će biti prosječno stara ispod 5 g prema ponderiranoj sredini.Prvi brodovi će u rezalište za desetak godina.Dakle,sve ove informacije idu u korst TNPL..
Međutim,flota će dobiti na vrijednosti upravo kada se najviše zarađuje,jer ova dva nova su
specijalizirana za zimske uvjete.Oni će imati zimske vozarine bez obzira kakva će biti zima. Upravo sam naglasio da u ovoj dionici ostajem do 15.04.2009.kada ćemo imati FI 1Q 2008.gdje bi se ti efekti mogli osjetiti više nego što će biti samo efekt povečanja flote.Ti multiplikacioni efekti bi se trebalo osijetiti i u 4Q 2008. tj u izvješću za 2008.g.Pored
trenutne pocijenjenosti izvjesno je da kada bi i dostigli fair vrijednost da nije vrijeme za prodaju.
Dapaće.Postajem dugoročni investitor.
Prije četiri dana porinut je brod od 114.000 DWT.BDTI je rastao preko 5%.Nafta je pojeftinila.
Dolar je skočio.Pa ne može bolje.A cijena dionice na mjestu .Ne miče se.A IH izvrstan.Strpljen
spašen.

Razlog pada je ZB aktiv , nema veze s trezorom.