Znači za MR su bitne rute :
– gore navedena UK/USC balast u Meksičkom i nazad
– Meksički zaljev – Karibi
– intra region trgovina na istoku Azije, Singapur, Kina, Japan i Južna Koreja, te dijelom Australia.
– dijelom Mediterana
Meksički zaljev – Južna Amerika, Gulf – Istočna Azija su L1/L2 rute.
Nije to striktno određeno, ali je u pravilu tako.
Naravno ima vožnje i iz Europe u Afriku, Afrika je uvoznik produkata , ruta Rotterdam – Togo je 700 km duža nego do New Yorka (nedavno je Dalmacija vozio tu rutu ako se ne varam)
…možda griješim ali čini mi se da bi Q4 2018 i Q1 2019…za Tpng …mogli biti kvartali sa najvećim pozitivnim pomacima na ZSE…a sve su najave da bi Clean indexi trebali još ozbiljnije rasti u Q3 i Q4 2019…
S obzirom da smo imali skoro mjesec dana BCTI iznad 800, što u zadnjih 5 godina nije zabilježeno, imali smo petogodišnji ATH od 917, a 5 brodova od 6 je na spotu i visina vozarina direktno utječe na njihovu zaradu, trebalo bi se to odrazit na izvještajima.
Što se budućnosti tiče, teško je to predvidjet, ali svakako rekordno nizak broj novogradnji i povećanje flota u zadnjih X godina, regulativa 2020 i prelazak na LSFO koji bi mogao uvest “nered” nisu na odmet.
Ide benzin iz Europe, UK/ Sjeverno more u Ameriku, ATlanska obala, pa je balast do Meksičkog zaljeva i nazad ide dizel u Europu.
The triangle is possible due to the different car markets on either side of the Atlantic. EU cars are increasingly fuelled by diesel, while those in the US largely use gasoline. Therefore refineries in the EU and US create gasoline and diesel surpluses respectively.
Product Tankers can also trade in the DPP/Crude market, and switching typically
occurs if one of the markets yields better than the other. The barrier to switch from CPP to DPP/Crude may vary from owner to owner though. After trading in the DPP/Crude market a product tanker needs to go through tank cleaning, which has a cost, or to carry at least three condensate cargoes, to avoid
contamination of the first CPP cargo after switching back. Normally it is the larger owners/pools that switch back and forth as this often achieves economies of scale on the cleaning cost or they may have betteraccess to condensate cargoes, while smaller owners often see higher barriers to switching. Primarily it is the LR sizes that switch, although this also occurs in the MR segment. Although limited in scale, crude tankers may also trade CPP on their very first voyage, typically from Asia to the West, as the newbuildings are most often delivered out of Asian yards.
blagodarim
nema ništa bez solidnog uvida. mannu, buaff …. to be continued .
Bci index se stabilizirao na 660 bodova…biti će zanimljivo vidjeti koje cijene su ugovarali za brodove na spotu…bilo bi super da poraste još malo iznad 700 bodova i da tako dočeka ulazak u 3q 2019…
Product tanker owners could potentially see rates improving during the second half of 2019, as a number of new refineries will hit the market. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “according to a recent IEA report, 2019 is expected to see the largest wave of refinery capacity additions since the 1970’s. The Agency expects that 2.6 million b/d of new capacity will initiate operations this year.
(2017 -0,5 b/d of new capacity, 2018- 1,0 b/d of new capacity).
In terms of pure volumes, this is of course a bullish sign for the product tanker market, but what really matters is how global product flows shape up”.
Još neki bullish signali…
ClarkSea Index:
Looking at the last 29 years, a pattern is relatively clear. In 13 years, Q4 was the quarter witnessing the highest average ClarkSea Index. And on average Q4 was 9% above the Q1-Q3 average. That’s a fair degree of seasonality reflecting the drivers listed above. At 28% above the average for Q1-Q3, last year’s Q4 demonstrated over 3 times as much as the average seasonal difference. Tanker earnings in particular spiked hard, with VLCC average spot earnings at $40,331/day in Q4 compared to just $7,304/day in Q1-Q3, dragging the ClarkSea Index up, even as easing containership charter rates were applying negative pressure. But on the other hand even if Q4 saw quite a performance, 7 years since 1990 have seen greater Q4 ‘surges’.
Seasonal Signal?
However, of even more interest to investors might be whether this tells us anything about the coming year! Interestingly, over the period in question, the full year average has a correlation of 85% with the Q4 index of the previous year. Maybe that’s no surprise given that market conditions often evolve over time. The average index the following year was on average just 1% different from the previous Q4. However in 7 years across the period the index was more than 15% below the previous Q4. Maybe not such a hard and fast indicator after all…
dok jednom ne omrkne, drugom ne osvane tj dok jednom ne zahladi, drugom ne kapnu dolari od nafte
oštfra zima je uvijek dobra za naftni biznis – kuri se, kuri
Kud plovi ovaj brod?
Kud plovi ovaj brod?
na scile i haribde
Kad su pitali Muju koju neman najviše mrzi, odgovorio je: “Neman za kavu!” 😉
vozarine oko 15 500, dobit 29 -30 mikkja iliti ca 5 milja usd
moja skromna prognoza
Dvanaest praznih supertankera otkrivaju pravu istinu o današnjem tržištu nafte
ovdje je rije c o prijevozu sirove nafte iz sad, ali prijevod je tako nedotupavan da je to idiotski
sirova nafta je nerazmrsvo vezana s preradenom naftom pa ako netko moze dat svoje videnje kako ovaj trenuti razvoj u sad utjece kratkotočno i dugorocno na prijevoz preradevina