blagodarim, blagodarim

nego, čudi me da nisu još uvaljali nijedan sa spota u carter – ili jesu. vidim da tu ima neke priče oko toga, ali ne nalazim nigdje službeno priopćenej tpng

Operativni podaci flote 2015. 2016. 2017.
TCE neto vozarine (USD/dan) 15.257 15.583 15.525

U dosada najboljoj godini, onoj 2016, tpng je zabiljaezila prosejk vozarina od 15 583

Uz carter vozarine od 15 500 kao sad najnovije kod velebita, i spot vozarine debelo iznad toga, i prosje vozarina bi trebao biti osjetno iznad. Q4 u svakom slučaju, a taj kvartal dići će i ukupno na godišnjoj razini ostbarene vozarine. još jedan brod na 15 500 , ostali na spotu i bit će 2019 to nova najbolja godina za tpng sa sjajnom uvertirom u liku q4 2018.

Evo lokacija brodova:

Pag – Amsterdam (kraj triangulacije)
Dalmacija -> od Gane prema Dakru
Zoilo -> Crno more od Constante do Istambula
Vukovar -> Kina od Huizhou do Daliana
Velebit -> od NY prema HOU (triangulacija)
Vinjerac -> AG – Persian Gulf

Vozarine:
TC2 MR (WS) CONT > TA 37,000 MT 225 -> cca 26,5 K $
TC3 MR (WS) CBS > USAC 38,000 MT 235 -> cca 29,5 k $
TC14 MR (WS) USG > CONT 38,000 MT 200 -> cca 21,4 k $

Za Clean MR Black Sea to Mediterranean sam naišao na ovaj podatak za 13.12.2018.
WS 235.00 , USD/metric tonne, 19.88

Vozarine:
TC2 MR (WS) CONT > TA 37,000 MT 225 -> cca 26,5 K $
TC3 MR (WS) CBS > USAC 38,000 MT 235 -> cca 29,5 k $
TC14 MR (WS) USG > CONT 38,000 MT 200 -> cca 21,4 k $

Znalci znaju što ovo znači, većina nas ovdje ne.

Ima netko voljan malo da razriješi ove kratice jednu po jednu. Jednom kad se nešto nauči, to ostaje. Lakše je učiti uz velike briojeve nego uz padajuće 🙂

…Bci index – 35 …očekivana korekcija nakon nevjerojatnog rasta u posljednjih mjesec dana …iako Bdi i dalje raste + 10 …mislim da je sada dugoročno gledano bitno da Bci index ostane iznad 700 bodova što donosi ljepu profitabilnost za Tpng flotu…

Standardne clean tanker route, koje se tiču MRove (koje ima TPNG) su:
TC2 – Rotterdam to New York
TC3 – Caribbean to US Atlantic coast
TC4 – Singapore to Japan
TC6 – Skikda, Algeria, to Marseilles, France
TC7 – Singapore to Sydney
TC10 – Yeosu, South Korea, to Los Angeles
TC11 – Yeosu to Singapore
TC12 – Sikka, India, to Chiba, Japan
TC14 – Houston to Amsterdam

Mannu je već spominjao triangulaciju:
The TC2 and TC14 are often treated as part of a triangulated Atlantic route including a ballasted leg between the US East Coast and US Gulf Coast.

WS – wordscale – it’s the percentage of the published flat rate (ie shipping cost in $/t terms) that a charterer will pay to move a liquid cargo on a tanker between any two ports in the world.
As an example, a tanker owner may offer to move a cargo for a charterer (someone who wants to move oil such as a trader or oil major) at the current market levels say WS80. If the flat rate ($/t) between the two ports is $17/t, and the cargo is 80,000 tons, they will recieve .8*(80,000t*$17/t) or $1,088,000 as a lump sum to move the cargo.

blagodarim

vjerujem da malo tko ovdje barata time, a nitko da pita

indeks sada klizi dolje, što ej nrmalno. sad je pitanje na kojoj razini će naći svoju ravnotežu izmedu ponude i potražnje. Ako kroz godinu ostane oko 700, to bi bilo jako, jako lijepo uzimajući u obzir lanjske i preklanjske vrijednsoiti.

2015 j ebila dosad godina s najboljim vozarinama – tada je indeks u prosjeku veći dio godine proveo iznad 700. a carter ugovori su znali ići do 19 500. dobra, stara vremena

Po meni, prava igra tu počinje sa IMO 2020, više je tu momenata:

Compliance will cause both temporary and permanent effects that will force carriers to reduce their total capacity by seven to eight percent. Temporarily, capacity will be reduced by four to five percent as a result of the amount of time vessels will be out of commission while scrubbers are installed, and a subsequent increase in the number of blank sailings.

In the long term, less than two percent of capacity will be permanently reduced because scrubbers & LNG tanks occupy additional space on the vessel, and vessels over 20 years old will be phased out or “scrapped.” Lastly, the practice of slow steaming, where carriers slow down ship speeds to conserve fuel, will become more common, further restricting capacity while simultaneously increasing transit times.

Ali to je samo dio ledene sante.

Neki će ugradit scrubbere, koji koštaju cca 1M dolara, i moć će vozit na starom gorivu. Ali takvih mi se čini će bit malo:
By 2020, about 2,000 ships could have scrubbers, according to Wartsila, SEB Bank and industry analyst AlphaTanker.
But AlphaTankers’ Andrew Wilson called this a “drop in the ocean”, given there are about 90,000 vessels in the global fleet, of which about 60,000 ply international routes.
Based on the limited number of manufacturers and time constraints on facilities to install scrubbers, AlphaTanker estimates no more than 500 ships could be fitted each year.
A study by the IMO projected that only 6.7 percent of the global commercial maritime fleet will be using scrubbers after the regulations go into effect.
I onda ti ugradiš scrrubber i ne možeš u najveći hub na svijetu, SIngapur:
Last week’s announcement by the Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) that it would ban open-loop scrubbers from its port waters from 1 January 2020 when IMO’s 0.5% global sulphur cap comes into force.

Ostaje nam prelazak na novo gorivo.

The shipping industry accounts for about five million barrels per day (Mbd), or five percent of global oil demand.
To gorivo rafinerije trebaju proizvest, ali nije ni to tako jednostavno.
A large portion of the global shipping fleet will begin using cleaner fuels, such as gasoil, a distillate fuel similar to diesel, or 0.5 percent ultra-low sulfur fuel oil (ULSFO). The switchover will benefit complex refineries at the expense of smaller, simpler units that are not as flexible. Large complex refineries can produce gasoil without the by-product of heavy fuel oil. Older and less sophisticated refineries process a barrel of crude into different component parts, a portion of which is residual fuel oil used in the maritime industry. These dirtier products will steadily decline in value as the IMO regulations take effect.
In other words, a certain portion of the global refining industry will see a windfall from the new maritime fuel standards while others will suffer a significant financial hit. “If the shipping industry needs more clean fuels, then that’s good for refining.”

The refineries set to gain from the new rules are clustered along the U.S. Gulf Coast, in Europe, and in parts of Asia. JPMorgan estimates that the IMO rules will boost refining margins in Europe by 60 cents per barrel.

Meanwhile, simpler refineries that tend to produce high-sulfur fuel oil will lose out and ultimately might be “forced to cut runs or close,” Energy Aspects said in March. The consultancy singled out refineries in Mexico, which “will pose a growing financial headache to the Mexican government and likely prove unsustainable.”

Treba napomenut da su i spremišta za gorivo puna HSFO, to treba očistiti, i pripremit za ULSFO.
Dio brodova će sigurno služit kao plutajuća skladišta, što opet smanjuje supply i gura vozarine gore.

Pozitivan utjecaj na tržite u idućoj godini imat će i nova 2020. IMO regulativa (zabrana korištenja
goriva s visokim postotkom sumpora) kada se očekuje da će za potrebe distribucije brodskog goriva
diljem svijeta, doći do značajnog povećanja potražnje za Product tankerima.

točno ovo što kaže buaff. inače neugledan uljanik plovidba prezentacija, ali ima zanimljivi momenata

Ono sto nije navedeno ranije a predatavlja dobru vijest za TPNG je da Kina uvodi Sulphur limit od 0.5% za tri svoje ECA zone a koje pokrivaju vecinu najznacajnijih kineskih luka pocevsi od 1 sijecnja 2019 tj. za desetak dana tocnije godinu ranije od prvotnog plana. Za razliku od dosadasnje regulacije gdje se gorivo sa niskim udjelom sumpora koristilo samo tjekom priveza broda u luci nova tegulacija ukljucuje i obalni pojas od 12 Nm u ECA zonama ukljucujuci i usca najznacajnijih rijeka. Navedeno ce rezultirati povecanom potrosnjom destilatnih goriva i ULSFO a samim time i promet istih.

eppur si muove – ova tema ipak gre naprid pomalo. blagodarim.

https://www.investing.com/indices/baltic-clean-tanker

naravno,indeks js skliznuo dolje sa svoji olimski visina, morao

ipak sad smo oko 11 posto iznad razina lani u ovo doba.hoće li još jači pomak uslijediti u kv 2 i kv 3 kako drugovi iu uljanik plovidbe i drugovi iz tpng nagovještavaju, zna baba vanga ako ju tko može pitati