Kako sam i govorio na 47kn treba prodavati jer kad se Cosco vrati u igru BCTI i tankerske vozarine ce pasti na jos nize nego odakle su narasli.
BCTI pukla razina 600 i pad ispod 400 je tehnicki izgledan. K tome i Brexit i stanje u Kini gdje vodece firme zatvaraju pogone na 30-60 dana ce utjecati na pad vozarina i dalje. Na Tpng sam odvozio 2 vala, od 33,6kn do 43kn, kupovao natrag na 39-40kn i opet izlazio na 47kn. Sad prije 30kn ne bi ulazio.
Trenutno ne bi bio u brodarima jer tu slijedi dublji pad. I mislim da 30kn nece biti dno vec dosta nize.
Glede profila stari je ugasen ne mojom voljom.
Odličan tekst.
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/02/02/tankers-are-tanking/
Look, shipping is seasonal. If you didn’t realize this, you didn’t do your job as an equity analyst. What matters to shipping isn’t today’s charter rate compared to peak rates in early January 2020—it’s the rate today compared to prior years. If rates today are up over the first week in February 2019, tankers are in a bull market. I only get concerned if rates drop below prior year levels.
I also like to focus on 5-year vessel values and 1-year time charters. Both are up materially over prior years. This shows that the big money guys, the guys who charter these vessels for long periods of time and have access to reams of internal data, think that rates stay elevated.
Coronavirus– Look, this is something of a “black swan.” … We’ll see something of a reduction in Chinese commodity demand over a few-month period, followed by the sort of stimulus that would make our own Federal Reserve blush. What do you think happened to Chinese commodity demand from 2004 onward? Yeah, Chinese stimulus will make the periodic table catch a bid and someone has to move this stuff.
COSCO Vessels- If you didn’t think these 26 COSCO vessels would return to world trade, you’re a m.oron. The question was a matter of when, not if. Tanker rates spiked in early Q4/2019 on Trump sanctioning COSCO, not because 26 vessels in a global VLCC fleet of roughly 800 left the market—rather, supply chains suddenly woke up to geopolitical volatility … Even then, it is speculated that some of these vessels were storing crude. If 26 VLCCs return to active trade, wouldn’t some of that storage need to be replaced? I see this as a minor disruption that should be more than offset by China’s promise to increase imports of US energy products. Rough math says that the global fleet needs 40 to 60 incremental VLCCs to supply China with what they agreed to buy from USA.
After many years of absence, geopolitics has returned to the shipping market. China agreed to buy a lot of US crude from very far away—further absorbing tanker supply. All of this is supportive of tanker rates, especially at a time when global order books are at unusually low levels. Even take Wuhan Flu—we’re seeing China declare force majeure and vessels are starting to idle outside of ports. Do you think countries will accept cargoes from vessels that recently offloaded in China? 1-week quarantines of vessels could do a lot more than offset the 26 COSCO vessels. It could send rates back into the stratosphere. Finally, the very big picture says that incremental global demand for energy is coming from Asia and India, while incremental global supply is coming from the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, West Africa, Guyana and potentially Venezuela if they can sort through their issues. Look at a map. These distances are substantially longer than routes from the Arabian Gulf to Asia or India. This absorbs vessels and despite all the moving pieces that impact short-term spot rates, this long-term salient fact doesn’t seem to be changing.
How am I thinking about the recent sell-off? You can either think this is the end of the tanker bull market and panic, or you can treat this as an opportunity. I’m taking the latter view. V-Bottoms are hard to time and I’ve been a bit early in terms of adding. Then again, this won’t be the first or last time I’m too early. If I’m right, a few days and 10% early won’t matter much. I’m averaging in on a scaled basis.
In the end, if I believe this cycle continues, it all comes down to valuations—am I buying a cyclical market early in the up-cycle and at a great price?
Kako sam i govorio na 47kn treba prodavati jer kad se Cosco vrati u igru BCTI i tankerske vozarine ce pasti na jos nize nego odakle su narasli.
BCTI pukla razina 600 i pad ispod 400 je tehnicki izgledan. K tome i Brexit i stanje u Kini gdje vodece firme zatvaraju pogone na 30-60 dana ce utjecati na pad vozarina i dalje. Na Tpng sam odvozio 2 vala, od 33,6kn do 43kn, kupovao natrag na 39-40kn i opet izlazio na 47kn. Sad prije 30kn ne bi ulazio.
Trenutno ne bi bio u brodarima jer tu slijedi dublji pad. I mislim da 30kn nece biti dno vec dosta nize.
Glede profila stari je ugasen ne mojom voljom.
Ovo sa COSCO-om nema veze sa BCTI i TPNG.
Navlačenje. Zašto mislite da svi trejdaju kao vi i gledaju na dionicu od danas do sutra. Oditeu u kladionicu radije vec da ovdje i ostalim temama lovite u mutnom
Ne navlacim ja nikoga nista. I danas udaranje u 39kn, prodaja na mahove po 1500kom.
Drugi put je izdrzalo 39kn, ali sigurno nece izdrzati kad krene pritisak dan za dan.
Tko bas zeli kupovati moja preporuka je 32kn i donji bollinger.
jučer 602
danas 601
indeks struže po dnu. ako ga povratak čine i virus ne srzuši, to je dobar nagovještaj – ima dakle potporu na ovim razinama. prije je znao roniti i spod 500
Osim katastrofičara , bilo bi zgodno za usporedbu čitati komentare realnih optimista , ako postoje .
Danas sve zeleno na burzama .
bcti 604
Dajte, prestanite pisat bedastoce.
Tankerski market je sezonalan i naravno da ce index padat (ili stagnirat) do listopada.
Komentiranje sadasnjih dnevnih promijena vozarina na trzistu je kao i komentiranje popunjenosti hotela u sijecnju…
Trenutno je bitno pratit cijenu brodova i kretanje TC, moze i BCTI, ali u odnosu na danasnji dan u 2019…
Ono sto me zabrinjava je brutalan pad (svi preko 30%) tankerasa u zadnjih mjesec dana. A osim toga, povijesno je q4 kod TPNG jedan od losijih kvartala (sto je totalna nebuloza, ali tako je) tako da ni sam ne znam sto ocekivat od njega osim da ce sigurno bit bolji nego lani…
P.s. imam Tpng, ali nisam na kupnji, voda se jako zamutila
Završetak brodarskog ugovora na vrijeme za ECO produkt tanker te produžetak
ugovora na vrijeme za konvencionalni produkt tanker
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Sukladno strategiji zapošljavanja flote, zaposlenje za navedeni ECO produkt tanker kompanija će
osigurati na „spot tržištu“ s ciljem ostvarivanja što povoljnije komercijalne i operativne
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Nadalje, unajmitelj konvencionalnog produkt tankera je deklarirao ranije ugovorenu opciju
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