Da li tehnička analiza stvarno funkcionira? Zašto da, zašto ne, kada da, kada ne… Zanimljiva tema o kojoj puno ljudi i velikih stručnjaka ima oprečno mišljenje. Svoj mišljenje iznesite u ovoj temi.
Evo za početak i linka na jedan izvrstan strani forum namijenjen samo ovoj temi – Does Technical Analysis Really Work?
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/191443/191443.html
Pohvala moderatoru za temu!
Evo moga mišljenja:
1. Kad bi TA bila 100% točna za svaki slučaj, onda više ne bi bilo potrebe za ljudskom odlukom u što ulagati, samo napraviš moćni program koji analizira sve dionice i samostalno daje naloge ovisno o trigerima i ostalim pokazateljima.
2. TA se koristi kao pomoćno sredstvo kod odlučivanja! ne bi se smjelo samo a temelju TA ulagati, trebalo bi imati malo više infoa B, RDG, dioničari…
3. TA pokazuje trend i to je prvenstveno čemu služi…to je poput meterologa koji na temelju današnjih informacija pokušavaju prognozirati vrijeme za sutra.
4. definitivno postoji veza između dnevnih najboljih ponuda za kupnju i prodaju (i gapa među njima) volumena trgovine, otpora i reagiranja na promjenu cijene, a ta veza pokušava se prikazati TA
Sta se vise ljudi ravna po TA to je TA tocnija 🙂
Tehnička analiza kao i sve druge analize izvlače srednje vrijednosti iz raspoložive baze podataka, te kao takva može poslužiti generiranju određenih stavova i pravila koja će koristiti onima koji znaju kako ih čitati.Beholder je potpuno u krivu kad TA naziva “prognozom” jer ona to nije.TA ne služi proricanju budućnosti nego objašnjenju prošlosti.
04.04.2006. 15:12, znanac:
Evo malo na temu tekstova s Wikipedije:
Criticism of Technical Analysis
The question of documented evidence
Although chartists believe that their techniques provide excess returns over time, not all research agrees with this conclusion. Some academics and fundamentalist market participants believe that technical analysis has no predictive power. According to some studies, after trading costs are factored in, the returns generated by many technical analysis strategies may underperform a simple buy and hold strategy.
On the other hand, many market participants, especially active traders (traders who are looking for quick profits), defend the practice and believe (and in some cases demonstrate) that it can be profitable. There is extensive research demonstrating that some technical analysis methods are effective, with at least 59 studies showing that particular technical analysis methods have provided statistically significant positive returns. [1] [2]. Furthermore, technical analysts counterclaim that buy and hold strategies do not always work either, and that opportunites to make money in markets always exist even if the market overall does not move.
Critics of technical analysis include very well known investors. Warren Buffett has exclaimed, “I realized technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the charts upside down and didn’t get a different answer” and “If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” Peter Lynch suggested that “Charts are great for predicting the past.” To be sure, both the aforementioned are “investors” not “active traders” and are almost exclusively fundamental analysts. As stated earlier, the staunchest proponents of technical analysis tend to be active traders and technical analysis often is at odds with fundamental analysis.
Proponents of Technical Analysis
To many traders, trading in the direction of the trend is the most effective means to be profitable in financial or commodities markets. John Henry, Larry Hite, Ed Seykota, Richard Dennis, Bruce Kovner, and Michael Marcus (some of the so-called Market Wizards in the popular book of the same name by Jack D. Schwager) have each amassed massive fortunes through the use of technical analysis and its concepts. George Lane, a technical analyst, coined one of the most popular phrases on Wall Street, “The trend is your friend!”
Many non-arbitrage algorithmic trading systems rely on the idea of trend-following, as do many hedge funds. A relatively recent trend, both in research and industrial practice, has been the development of increasingly sophisticated automated trading strategies. These often rely on underlying technical analysis principles (see algorithmic trading article for an overview).
@ententins
Here is a definition of Technical Analysis which I located today :-
A method of evaluating securities by relying on the assumption that market data, such as charts of price, volume, and open interest, can help predict future (usually short-term) market trends. Unlike fundamental analysis, the intrinsic value of the security is not considered. Technical analysts believe that they can accurately predict the future price of a stock by looking at its historical prices and other trading variables. Technical analysis assumes that market psychology influences trading in a way that enables predicting when a stock will rise or fall. For that reason, many technical analysts are also market timers, who believe that technical analysis can be applied just as easily to the market as a whole as to an individual stock.
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tehnička analiza je čista pušiona inače bi se ja ,a vjerujem i mnogi moji prijatelji na račun nje obogatili.
zbog TA sam bio svoj ulog dobrano uništio.
neke druge analize i neki drugi faktori su važni za rast kursa, a sama TA najviše govori o prošlosti dionice,ali jako malo o budućnosti te dionice
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TA nije loša kao dio informacija u donošenju odluka, ali ako odluku doneseš dan ranije.
Hoću reći da je prekasno donositi odluke samo na osnovi TA jer ona kasni najmanje jedan dan.
Možda neko ima drugačija iskustva ali moje je upravo takvo.
Pozdrav
Nije TA skroz bez veze. Ima nešto u psihologiji mase. Sigurno je kad cijena pada da support raste i obrnuto. Te zakonitosti definira TA. Problem je što je naše tržište previše plitko i TA se ne može korisiti na više od 4, 5 najlikvidnijih dionica. Kako koristiti TA na dionicama na kojima je dovoljno par stotina dionica da srušite cijenu 25%.