10 min 30 dana
Ako kužim ovo čudo – RSI za CRO INDEX trenutno iznosi 14?
Ako kužim ovo čudo – RSI za CRO INDEX trenutno iznosi 14?
trenutno je 31
tek na intraday grafu uočava se mogućnost da je 5. val prema dole već počeo…
nemam vremena za pomniju analizu kao ni današnje praćenje razvoja…
napravit ću to malo sutra… [cool]
10 min 30 dana
10 min 30 dana
di_su_pare … zašto ne mogu uglaviti 30 dana na ekran ??? ili mi ne stanu sve svijeće u ekran ili imam preveliku prazninu …
Pošto je ova tema više-manje postala neozbiljna (isprika iznimkama), evo i mog doprinosa u revijalnom tonu….
Svi se sjećate kako se kretao crobex u danima dok se čekao mali povrat viška sredstava od ine i malo veći povrat viška od ht-a. Kao podsjetnik prilažem graf.
A sada, želje i poruke…
Na idućem grafu je moguće kretanje crobexa u nadolazećim tjednima, u iščekivanju mol-ove uplate…
EWT-ovci bi mogli probati ovakav crobex ubaciti u svoje analize. [smiley] [rolleyes]
Ugodna zabava!
Bravo, krpa, odlična napomena. Još bi bilo zgodno grafički pokazati i "dolazak keša" od PLIVE (nakon prodaje Plive) na burzu. Velika očekivanja, pa onda također značajan pad. Ujesen prije 2 godine.
Evo zanimljiva priča o bailoutovima dosada u povijesti od EWI-a
damn…
švabe, i francuzi tonu ko da su u živom pijesku… dan su započeli sa cca -4%!!!
izgleda još jedan težak dan na burzi… ahh, dionice su kruh sa sedam kora…
Po meni slijedeći tekst najbolje opisuje postojeću situaciju:
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
The bear market reasserted itself last week in a violent manner; trading sharply higher and lower in a matter of hours and days. This isn’t your garden variety bear market as this one smells and feels much different given the enormity of the credit crisis. And there is no end in sight to the crisis from a fundamental perspective, which is giving rise to increasing calls that a "crash" is imminent. Perhaps that indeed what lurks around the corner, but crashes are very low probability events as they reside at the "end of the tail" of the probability distribution curve. We would argue we’ve had a serious of "mini-crashes" if one looks at the homebuilders; the oil and oil service sector; and the commodity miners. The decline in the homebuilders took 2-years to accomplish, while the oil/oil service and commodity miners took all of 3-months.
The question where does that put us now is a very good one. From a longer-term technical perspective, the S&P monthly chart has broken below its longer-term bull market trendline which would argue for sharply lower prices. However, the 14-month RSI is oversold for only the second time since 1980, with the other time occurring at the October-2002 bottom. This certainly puts the risk-reward towards a countertrend rally in the least. Shorter-term, we find the price distance below the 20-month moving avearge to be on par with that seen at other interim 2000-2002 bear market lows. The 1050-1080 zone is about as low at it gets. Again, this would argue for countertrend rally in the least.
Therefore, the risk-reward favors a tradable rally from current-to-lower levels as quite a bit of negative news has been discounted; the question however, still remains whether the rate of increasingly bearish fundamental news and earnings will overwhelm the technicals. It’s all about risk-reward, and it would seem to us barring a low probability crash…we should be considering long positions into this decline.
