vlad1111
Da li postoji mogućnost da smo odradili 5 val na dolje kako sam ja postavio varijantu od listopada 2007. godine i da bi sad moglo ići lagano kreiranje nove serije valova prema gore;

i drugo pitanje, ako gledamo samo od početka 2008. godine, po toj varijanti bi to bio samo bio početak četvrtog vala, i onda ogromni peti koji bi potopio burzu, na cca 2200, iako ja u taj scenarij ni u najcrnjim snovima ne očekujem.

I što na kraju da li je 5 val završen kako se donedavno pisalo ili je tek 3 pa ronimo uskoro dalje do 1000 [tongue]

Putting Elliott to the Test
In 1994, a small team from Perth led by Rich Swannell began designing Elliott Wave computer programs for traders. Swannell was a programmer first and trader second. Very few in the world of trading are good at both.

During the early years, the team consulted with Elliott veterans, conducted intense research, and developed what Swannell claims was the world’s first comprehensive software program designed to analyze price data using the rules and guidelines of Elliott’s theory. The problem with the software was that it was based on observations and not an exhaustive statistical analysis of wave reliability. And, while results from the software were respectable, without probabilities the trader was still trading blind. How could a way be found to overcome this weakness?

The team came up with a novel solution. Swannell developed a screen saver in 2001 that would work in the background on the computers of more than three thousand volunteers. While not being used by their owners, these machines would be scanning a universe of stocks, commodities and indexes to search for and analyze Elliott Wave patterns. The goal was to determine once and for all which patterns worked, which did not and even whether the Elliott Wave theory itself had sufficient merit to trade it with confidence. It was all based on mathematical probabilities.

After eighteen months and hundreds of thousands of hours of computer time, the team had enough data to start analyzing it. For those interested in more details, Swannell wrote a book about the experience, “Elite Trader’s Secrets: Market Forecasting With The New Elliot Wave System” (2003); it includes a good analysis of Elliott patterns. Here is a summary of what they found:

Not only did the Elliott Wave theory prove to be statistically sound, the research was able to generate the probabilities of a forecast being correct. In other words, the trader could now know the chances of a wave pattern and the resulting forecast with a low margin of error (statistical significance).

The most common Elliott Wave patterns were often significantly different in both shape and frequency than the previous conceptions of them. Some patterns that were previously believed to be reliable did not work often enough to be used with any degree of confidence.

The team confirmed Murray Ruggiero’s finding that a correct wave count is not the most important factor in trading. Even with the help of a good program, all Elliott forecasts are, at best, an educated guess: a trader can never be certain because there is always a larger pattern that cannot be included in the analysis unless he or she goes back to the beginning of time. Swannell’s team found that since many alternate counts result in similar forecasts, this problem of possible inaccuracy is not as critical as many previously thought. As long as a count is arrived at logically, adheres to the rules and is confirmed over various time periods, it doesn’t matter what the larger degree (next largest wave pattern) is. In Swannell’s findings, the most probable scenarios gave exactly or at least very similar forecasted results. This finding is crucial to a trader’s success and means that, as Ruggiero says, the count is of less importance than the penalty for being wrong, which is the loss on the trade.

By performing forecasts in various time frames, the team separated the issues that worked from those that didn’t. Forecasts for those that exhibited no consensus over various time periods were deemed unreliable (see our example below for a more detailed explanation). The probability for failure in most cases was greater than the probability for success, so why take the chance?

Of the thousands of equities, indexes and commodities tested, Swannell’s team found that in about 65% of the cases, Elliott Wave theory proved too unreliable to be used to trade with any degree of confidence. In other words, using the theory to trade the instruments included in this 65% would prove a losing proposition. It means that traders should limit their focus to the 35% that proved to be viable trading candidates.

But why did only about one-third of the candidates work using Elliott? It has to do with the basis of the Elliott principle, which quantifies market crowd behavior. Elliott Wave theory works best in equities that (1) have lots of volume (liquidity) and (2) move according to key forces of fear and greed on the part of many participants. When a security is not prone to this crowd behavior and is controlled instead by a few strong hands, Elliott patterns begin to break down. Issues traded by a few are more subject to manipulation and control and, therefore, are more difficult to forecast.

[color=blue]Elliott warned us that his theory worked best on indexes and very liquid securities[/color], so Swannell’s finding was not all that surprising. But now the notion was proven and quantified and a list of trading candidates was identified. In the process, a large amount of subjectivity and uncertainty was removed. All this information was now stored and available in a large database for immediate computer reference.

Vlad1111 daj i tu trecu opciju – vjerovatno ce se ispuniti vrlo brzo.

Oce mi neko objasnit DJIA, po nekoliko puta se odbijala od 12200 i od 12600. Zašto bi morao bit potop ( 2200) ili ludi bull, zašto ne bi mogli ući u kanal 3300-3600 ( ne znam pa pitam )

Evo jedno pitanje za Cromana znam da čita…ovaj 5 vali po EWT morali ići ispod 3 vala (3250) ili 5 val može završiti i iznad 3250…
Znam da si ovdje završio pisanje, ali odgovori mi na moj novac na temi EWT teh analiza
Pozdrav

prati tehničku.
asistirat ću koliko budem mogao i znao.[smiley]

Hm dobro pitanje.

Daj Vlad1111 komentiraj

Da se naglasi[shocked][shocked][shocked][shocked][shocked]

dno bi moglo biti dosegnuto do ca 01.05.
ako bude ekstenzije 5. podvala, onda čak i nešto kasnije.

Ako netko može pogledati početkom travnja mjeseca sve je izgledalo da imamo buy signale (na Crobexu i na većini dionica) upravo kao i sada – da li ima ikakav pokazatelj po kojem se moglo vidjeti da će cijena dolje? Stalno pokušavam to shvatiti (naučiti).