Imamo jaku potporu na S&P 500 na 820 i prema TA sutra ide gore. Promet izvrstan. Također, i na NASDAQ i na DJI potpora jaka i promet iznadprosječan čak skoro duplo na DJI i to sve na loše vijesti.
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što će tek biti kad dođu dobre vijesti ?! [thumbsup]
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jel tebi nije neugodno???
do jučer si trubio o padu sad kad si ušao sve ti valja…bahhhhh povrača mi se od ovakvih licemjera
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nema dobrih vijesti.danas dolazi izvještaj citigroup-e koji je lošiji od očekivanog.
teško da će SP500 izdržati iznad 815. Tu i tamo ukaže se malo nade, ali trend je negativan i to treba tako shvatiti
A decline in U.S. stock indexes below the 2008 lows from November may trigger a rout that pushes benchmark averages to levels not seen since the mid-1990s, according to two leading technical analysts.
“Hopefully we don’t make new lows, because if we do, all bets are off,” said Ralph Acampora, who retired from Knight Capital Group Inc. in October 2007 after four decades on Wall Street. Should the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall below the 7,552.29 it touched on Nov. 20, it might tumble to 6,000, Acampora said. That’s 27 percent below yesterday’s close of 8,212.49 and a level last reached in October 1996.
The lows reached by the Dow average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in November are “a very, very significant area” because they are roughly where the last bear market ended in 2003, said John Murphy, chief technical analyst at StockCharts.com and the author of three books on market analysis. “If that’s broken, it becomes very negative.”
Both analysts spoke as part of a panel discussion about technical analysis, which involves making predictions based on historical trading patterns, at Bloomberg LP’s New York office.
The S&P 500 is off to its worst start to a year and is headed for its biggest weekly retreat since November after profits from Alcoa Inc. trailed estimates and investors speculated banks need capital. Since rallying 20 percent from its Nov. 20 low on speculation government spending would revive the economy, the Dow has dropped 9.1 percent over the last nine days.
Biggest Drops
Both indexes posted their biggest annual declines since the Great Depression in 2008, with the S&P 500 reaching an 11-year low of 752.44 and the Dow sliding to its worst level since 2003 on Nov. 20. Stocks tumbled as more than $1 trillion in bank losses froze lending and spurred a global recession.
The S&P 500 slipped below 776.76, the worst level of the 2001-2002 bear market, in November.
Acampora, whose career also included decade-long stints at Prudential Equity Group LLC, Smith Barney and Kidder Peabody & Co., said that while the past two weeks are “very disturbing,” he’s still “willing to give it the benefit of the doubt.” He cited the time that has passed since the lows were hit and positive breadth, in which rising stocks outnumber falling ones.
Even if the 2008 lows are not revisited, the market is probably in a trading range comparable to the ones that followed the 1929 crash and the bull market of the 1960s, Acampora said. The Dow average is unlikely to exceed its October 2007 peak of 14,164.53 for at least four years, he said.
After the 1929 crash, the Dow fluctuated between about 100 and 200 until 1950 when it began a sustained move higher. From 1966 to 1982, the average traded between about 600 and 1,000.
Dow 10,000
U.S. stocks rose yesterday, erasing a drop of more than 3 percent for the S&P 500, led by retailers, technology and energy companies. The S&P 500 sank 38 percent last year and the Dow fell 34 percent amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Japan and Europe since World War II.
Among Acampora’s past calls was a 1997 prediction that the Dow would reach 10,000. It rose to that level in March 1999.
Murphy said the November lows are likely to be broken, in part because the dollar’s recent strength against the euro signals lower share prices globally, as foreign equity markets are correlated to local currencies.
“There’s another down leg coming,” Murphy said. “Normally the market comes down in five legs. We’ve come down in two. I think we’re going to test those lows at the very least, and eventually probably take them out.”
nema dobrih vijesti.danas dolazi izvještaj citigroup-e koji je lošiji od očekivanog.
teško da će SP500 izdržati iznad 815. Tu i tamo ukaže se malo nade, ali trend je negativan i to treba tako shvatiti
sumnjam da ce onakav reversal na velikom prometu trajati samo jedan dan..
toliko
[sealed]
ovaj dvostruki vrh na 50 godišnjem grafu jasno oslikava moguću dubinu ponora.
ali stavi logaritamski graf pa ces vidit da to nije tak strašno [smiley]
nema dobrih vijesti.danas dolazi izvještaj citigroup-e koji je lošiji od očekivanog.
teško da će SP500 izdržati iznad 815. Tu i tamo ukaže se malo nade, ali trend je negativan i to treba tako shvatiti
sumnjam da ce onakav reversal na velikom prometu trajati samo jedan dan..
toliko
[sealed]
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dan ili nekoliko njih,svejedno. Pad nije pravoctan, ali je trend padajući ma koliko se mi trudili to ignorirati.
OK…
Dakle da rezimiramo…
Ameri moraju potvrditi probojem kroz 880
Mi smo svoj proboj potvrdili i odradili pulbek na sigurnom putu do 2000 a možda i do 2300 kako si objašnjavao preko šampona.
Sad me zanima…prema tvojim izračunima…kolika je vjerojatnost da odemo na 2000 odnosno na tih 2300?
Čisto da znam s kojom vjerojatnošću se kockam.:D
Hvala
@futra
ma nije se mijenjalo.
ni ja ne volim promilsku točnost.
no, prvi put sam otčitao 818 odokativno iz painta.
jučer sam pisao ca 815 i to je to.
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pa nemoj se kockati.
umjesto rasta od možebitnih 30% uzmi 15% i budi miran.
uđi kad bude sigurno.
p.s.
ma ameri su odradili potvrdu prijeloma obrnutog šampona.
jedino treba preživjeti desno rame.
Alo Tehnička podrška, kakve su prognoze za ponedeljak i utorak sa i bez političkih okolnosti ???
Ja sam kockar u duši…:)
A dionice su i onako kocka…
Tehnička analiza je, ako sam dobro shvatio, splet izračunskih scenarija od kojih svaki ima neku vjerojatnost događanja…
Pa ako ti nije problem slobodno ti meni daj vjerojatnosti pa ću se ja kockati ako budem mislio da mi je omjer izgleda i moguće zarade zadovoljavajući.
OK…
Dakle da rezimiramo…
Ameri moraju potvrditi probojem kroz 880
Mi smo svoj proboj potvrdili i odradili pulbek na sigurnom putu do 2000 a možda i do 2300 kako si objašnjavao preko šampona.
Sad me zanima…prema tvojim izračunima…kolika je vjerojatnost da odemo na 2000 odnosno na tih 2300?
Čisto da znam s kojom vjerojatnošću se kockam.:D
Hvala
@futra
ma nije se mijenjalo.
ni ja ne volim promilsku točnost.
no, prvi put sam otčitao 818 odokativno iz painta.
jučer sam pisao ca 815 i to je to.
[/quote]
pa nemoj se kockati.
umjesto rasta od možebitnih 30% uzmi 15% i budi miran.
uđi kad bude sigurno.
p.s.
ma ameri su odradili potvrdu prijeloma obrnutog šampona.
jedino treba preživjeti desno rame.
[/quote]
primjer atpl
trebat će barem 4-5 dana da se “ukloni” mogućnost negativne divergencije macd histograma koja bi mogla nastati u slučaju naglog proboja nedavnog maksimuma (840) danas ili u ponedjeljak.
takva divergencija onemogućila bi nastavak rasta bez korekcije.
zato je zdravije osciliranje cijene ispod 840 barem nekoliko dana.
važno je da cijena u narednim danima ne probije liniju vrata potencijanog šampona za više od 5%.
Dakle ako prođe cca 883 kunića onda joj je otvoren "SIGURAN" put do…???
primjer atpl
trebat će barem 4-5 dana da se "ukloni" mogućnost negativne divergencije macd histograma koja bi mogla nastati u slučaju naglog proboja nedavnog maksimuma (840) danas ili u ponedjeljak.
takva divergencija onemogućila bi nastavak rasta bez korekcije.
zato je zdravije osciliranje cijene ispod 840 barem nekoliko dana.
važno je da cijena u narednim danima ne probije liniju vrata potencijanog šampona za više od 5%.