U svakom slučaju radi o višestrukom rastu, znatno višem no što je to realno, bilo gledajući po dosadašnjem poslovanju Citi grupe ili po rizicima za njeno buduće poslovanje. Ako pogledamo poslovanje vidimo da C može bez srama pasti na $1. Treba se igrati hladne glave i isključivo s lovom koja se može izgubiti bez muke.

In conclusion, DXY will be rising while Gold price and DJIA will be fallling into December 2009; look for Gold price to test $812 per ounce as its intermediate-term-bottom, with Silver following suit, while DJIA will test 8,000.
One of the world’s best investors, Jeremy Grantham says stocks are 20-25% over valued. Is a correction coming in this secular bear market… Pages 3-6 are good – but the entire report is worth skimming or reading. What isn’t mentioned in the media is what’s on page 1 – when he rips on Summers and Geithner.

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_3Q09.pdf

Ako je C rastao više nego što je realno, što reći za AIG?
Po meni je spreman za pad ispod 10$, uz pretpostavku da izvješće ne bude fantastično ili da najave dokapitalizaciju. A ako bude dobro izvješće onda će manijaci lako natjerati cijenu preko 100$… Kakva burza! [lol]

Od dionica koje su mi interesantne za budućnost tu je DRYS. Ako se pogleda da planiraju da im kroz par godina većina poslovanja budu naftne platforme (već sada su preko 50% prihoda) onda bismo trebali uspoređivati tu firmu sa sličnima iz sektora a ne samo sa brodarima.
Jedino je upitno kako će financirati 2 od 4 platforme koje se grade (2 već imaju i u funkciji su, a 2 koje se grade su već financirane). Economou je eksplicitno rekao da ne planira daljnju dokapitalizaciju izdavanjem novih dionica. Kako će onda u ovo vrijeme iskopati cca 1 mld$ koliko mu navodno treba? Nemam pojma.

Nafta je ipak ograničen resurs i ako cijene ostanu preko 70-80$ onda su te platforme isplative investicije. A kamoli ako nafta opet ode preko 100$.

Što se nafte tiče, ovo bi moglo unijeti poremećaj na tržište: (hvala gollumu na linku)
Vaš link

Ostajem pri želji da DRYS padne na razine oko 5$ ili niže pa da se nakrcam.

BTW – if that is true about Citi, better hurry and get out of your short dollar position. More bank issues to follow
Worried. Market in correction. Clients have been through so much over the last two years. $C not good. $CIT really not good. Short $AIG.
Nine U.S. banks seized in largest one-day haul
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE59U05420091031

Evo kaj nam VIX-pokazuje za naredno razdoblje

October 31, 2009 07:17 ET: While stocks have yet to prove that the last 2 down weeks will not be part of a temporary decline as was seen in June, yesterdays 6-POINT JUMP IN THE VIX to a 4-month high and above the triple top of 29, suggests the potential for sharper declines in equities. Watch the 100- WEEK mov avg at 32.45 and 200-DAY moving avg 32.70. Remember how the VIX was LOWER in March (when indices were at 12-yr lows) than it was in October (when indices were higher than in March). This could signal prolonged losses in equities ahead, with our key support seen at 990 in the S&P500 and 9,100 in the Dow.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/

sad je EU na redu i mi "Despite record-low interest rates and efforts to flood the eurozone with funds, the region’s banks have cut the volume of loans to customers. Loans to eurozone households and firms fell 0.3pc in September from a year earlier, the European Central Bank (ECB) said."

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/eurozone-unemployment-at-record-highs.html
This information now coming out of Europe is just as I expected all along, but is now coming out in the way of solid evidence that THERE IS NO GLOBAL "RECOVERY" AT ALL and we are just plunging globally further into a deflationary spiral as a result of the deleveraging of the massive credit bubble.

I expect at least a 30% drop in the price of gold as the market heads south.

For the time being, deflation is continuing big time.
"The case for deflation"

"Credit bubbles are inherently self-limiting, proceeding until the debt they generate can no longer be supported. We have already passed that point and we are now two years into a contraction phase that is about to accelerate. As the aftermath of a credit bubble is typically proportional to the scale of the excesses that preceded it, we should be in for the largest economic contraction for at least several hundred years, and it will be global.
Real estate, which is a major focus of the mania, should do particularly badly in the coming years (in fact the coming decades or longer). There is still so much deleveraging ahead, and so many danger signals, such as the scale of the coming interest resets on US mortgages between now and 2012 (below). While the subprime resets are ending, Alt A and Option ARMs are just beginning."

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/10/october-30-2009-interview-with.html

Ode i RBS pa,pa
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6475562/High-street-banks-to-be-broken-up.html

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, will confirm over the next few days that Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group, both of which are majority-owned by the taxpayer, will be split up.

Many of their assets will be sold off in deals which ministers will present as fulfilling Gordon Brown’s promise that the taxpayer would get "pay back" for the multi-billion pound Government bail out of the sector last year.

Na kupnju dolara ulagače su navele i špekulacije da bi američka središnja banka Fed idućega tjedna mogla jasnije signalizirati kad će početi podizati rekordno niske kamatne stope u SAD-u. "Smatramo da je aktualni rast vrijednosti dolara široko postavljen i snažan, te da još nije u potpunosti iscrpljen prostor za taj trend", ocjenjuje analitičar Societe Generalea Patrick Bennett.

http://www.liderpress.hr/default.aspx?sid=88909

Evo čitam komentare ovih padova (korekcija) i željene razine za ulaze… Pa čisto da pitam zar zaista vjerujete da će američki indexi poništiti sav ovogodišnji rast ili…?
Pročitao na posljednjim stranicama kako je moguće AIG na 10$, C na 1$, DRYS na 5$…
Gledam grafove i vidim da su i u najvećoj depresiji proljetos te dionice svega nekoliko dana bile tako nisko ili niže…
Mislite da su samo spomenute dionice prenapuhane ili očekujete opet i Nasdaq na 15xx i DOW na 8xxx??
Po izvješćima do sada teško mi je povjerovati da će sve opet tako jako u rikverc pogotovo ako Fed počne dizati kamate.

CIT Group Inc. plans to file for bankruptcy as soon as Sunday afternoon, said people familiar with the matter, in a high-stakes restructuring intended to keep the doors open at one of the U.S.’s largest small-business lenders.CIT’s board was meeting about the likely filing early Sunday afternoon, these people said, and the company expected to seek Chapter 11 protection in New York in a matter of hours

Dizanje kamata FED-a negativno utjece na burzu jer ako podignu kamate novac ce biti skuplji, odnosno krediti jos skuplji i nedostupniji a to će uzrokovati još više banktrota i zatvorenih radnih mjesta.

Može i na 4000 odnosno 500, a ne 1500. 1500 izgleda nisko samo zato što je nekad bio 6000, kao da ti netko proda cipele koje su koštale 1800kn za 900kn. Bit će sretan jer si dobro prošao, a onda otići u London i tamo vidjeti iste takve za 400kn.

CIT files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

CIT’s move will wipe out current holders of its common and preferred stock, likely meaning the U.S. government will lose the $2.3 billion it sunk into CIT last year to prop up the ailing company. The government could have lost billions more, however, had it not declined to hand over more aid to the company earlier this year.

The Chapter 11 filing is one of the biggest in U.S. corporate history. CIT’s bankruptcy filing shows $71 billion in finance and leasing assets against total debt of $64.9 billion. Its collapse is the latest in a string of huge cases driven by the financial crisis over the past two years, as bailed out industry heavyweights like General Motors and Chrysler both entered bankruptcy court.