Natural Gas Weekly Update
Some of the most interesting data is found in this report, since we get estimates both on supply and on demand.
On the supply side, we still see gross production racing ahead of last year by 4.0%. This, however, is turning into a lower and lower year-over-year rate, for instance one month ago, growth stood at 5.8% and two months ago, at 7.6%. Also, since imports are crashing, total supply is now running at just +2.4% year-over-year.
As for demand, not only is demand for electricity generation continuing at a fast pace, +25.1% in the latest week, but something else that was predictable now seems to be happening as well: industrial demand is also growing (+2.3% year-over-year in this particular week), and most importantly, the weather effect on residential is now going away, leading to a fall of just -3.6% year-over-year, whereas a few weeks ago we could easily be seeing -20% changes here. This all translates into demand that’s growing at a 7.6% rate year-over-year.
Conclusion
This week’s updates seem broadly consistent with the assumptions we made when turning positive on natural gas, namely:
Production is starting to converge to the levels hit during 2011, instead of growing much faster;
Demand for electricity demand continues to race ahead at high growth rates;
Industrial demand shows some growth;
Residential demand is normalizing towards 2011’s levels, instead of showing steep drops.
In short, everything is going according to plan, at this point. Yesterday’s drop in futures seems to have been the result of May’s contract expiration, being as it is that some speculators probably couldn’t take physical delivery and had to sell at any price.
http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=Ai0owxWH3Q7Ff6AZW9fD8oam3YdG;_ylu=X3oDMTFubWE2aDJzBG1pdANBcnRpY2xlIEJvZHkEcG9zAzcEc2VjA01lZGlhQXJ0aWNsZUJvZHlUZW1wQXNzZW1ibHk-;_ylg=X3oDMTJ0MnFkMW9uBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDMWNlMWQwZjUtMTAxNy0zYWQyLTllNzktNzE4ZTQ3ZTM3ZTlmBHBzdGNhdANuZXdzBHB0A3N0b3J5cGFnZQR0ZXN0Aw–;_ylv=0/SIG=13p54bd3q/EXP=1336826841/**http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-26/natural-gas-to-climb-as-goldman-sees-output-cuts-energy.html
“We’re going to see production curtailments and an uptick in power demand this summer that will prevent us from reaching maximum storage capacity,” said Scott Hanold, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Minneapolis. “Short-term gas contracts can take a beating, but investors have a more constructive view of longer-term contracts.”
Ovo je kljuc po meni, jedini razlog kako bi cijena mogla na nivo 1.5/1.6., je maksimalno popunjavanje storage capacity. Promatrajuci trgovinu zadnjih par dana, dosao sam do zakljucka da je 1.9 bilo dno i da ce tesko ispod toga, zato sam ti i postavio pitanje prije par dana sta mislis je li to bio long term bottom.
U svakom slucaju, pratiti, i puno bolja opcija je trade sa long etf, ung, boil i ugaz. Ne ulazim vise u short trade, preriskanto, nadam se malom pull backu.
naravno sto tako kako je ova zima bila glavni uzrok ovom padu u zadnja 3 mjeseca, uvijek postoji i opcija da El Nino napravi vise problema nego uobicajno, ohladi juzne drzave, da potreba za klimom padne, da demand zakaze.
“We’re going to see production curtailments and an uptick in power demand this summer that will prevent us from reaching maximum storage capacity,” said Scott Hanold, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Minneapolis. “Short-term gas contracts can take a beating, but investors have a more constructive view of longer-term contracts.”
Ovo je kljuc po meni, jedini razlog kako bi cijena mogla na nivo 1.5/1.6., je maksimalno popunjavanje storage capacity. Promatrajuci trgovinu zadnjih par dana, dosao sam do zakljucka da je 1.9 bilo dno i da ce tesko ispod toga, zato sam ti i postavio pitanje prije par dana sta mislis je li to bio long term bottom.
U svakom slucaju, pratiti, i puno bolja opcija je trade sa long etf, ung, boil i ugaz. Ne ulazim vise u short trade, preriskanto, nadam se malom pull backu.
…kada sam rekao cca 1,6…to bi bio školski bottom…mid 2006 4,3-mid 2009-2,41-mid 2012 1,6 …treća donja poveznica…to bi bilo…ono…idealno…
…što kažeš daytrade…zakon…btw …ide split na boil …10-tog…čini mi se…pozz
,,,možda bio i jučer…trenutno u plusu cca 0,5%,a UNG i BOIL su oversold do bola;za reverse trenda
poterbno zatvaranje na cca 2,1,pratiti
…hebo ja sebe ako on nije tu bio na 1,9…2002 je došao do 1,85…nekakav double bottom je
imao 2,128 su satrali…danas backtest…closed 2,19,meni lomg graf govori da ovo upravo struže
po dnu,da je upravo krajem 1/3 god. bottom…gledam cikklus od 30 mjeseci…@Mr.
založi se malo,lol,što kažu hebeni gurui…onom mom sa 9.mj.ne vjerujem ništa,lol.
i danas in-out BOIL
[wink]
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…i danas in-out boil 6,8-7,56
zadao nalog za kupnju ugaz na 18.10 i otisao van,promasilo me za 24 centi i popusio cistih 20 %.
@Mr-gotova najnovija projekcija…ova razina od 2,33X je vrlo važna…do not fall in love
with upside…ok…
[wink]
@Mr-gotova najnovija projekcija…ova razina od 2,33X je vrlo važna…do not fall in love
with upside…ok…
[wink]
sta kaze projekcija? 🙂
Otvori li ng danas sa +, oko. 2.36-2.38., ulazim u dgaz na razinama ispod 70, prebrzo je raslo, za sada je iscrpio sve pozitivne vjesti.
@Mr-rekao sam nema hebene šanse da zatvore iznad 2,33 ni danas ni slijedeči tjedan,
odmorimo se,čujemo se idući tjedan,razvalit ćemo ih kao i do sad,ugodan vikend,pozz!
@Mr-rekao sam nema hebene šanse da zatvore iznad 2,33 ni danas ni slijedeči tjedan,
odmorimo se,čujemo se idući tjedan,razvalit ćemo ih kao i do sad,ugodan vikend,pozz!
Moze, poz i ugodan vikend.