ovaj tjedan imamo dva EIA reporta, prvi je bio u utroak-77 bcf up, u ocekivanom rasponu od 75 do 79, kompariran sa 5 year avg i last year- bearish, drugi je danas po mojoj procjeni 80+ bcf, takoder bearish.
prognoza za prva dva tjedna je takoder okrenula na bearsih side, blag pocetak 11 mjeseca
po meni sve uracunato cijenu, storage ove godine oko 3.82 tcf, sto ce biti prvi put nakon 4 godine da nije zavrsio na povijesnim razinama
o vremenu sve ovisi sada, historijski cijene su na jako niskim razinama i pod pretpostavkom da cemo imati samo normalnu zimu, ovo cudo ce eksplodirati
naravno moguci je i dijamentralno suprotni scenarij i potpuni izostanak hladnoce, iako long term weather forecast ne idu u tom smjeru.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “As the first shot of significant cold air spurs above-normal heating demand across much of the eastern US, there are many questions regarding its staying power in the weeks and months ahead. While we do foresee colder-than-normal temperatures across the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast in November and potentially into early December, there is a risk of much milder temperatures heading into the New Year, especially across the western and southern US. Beyond that time, the fate of the late winter pattern is dependent upon the presence (or lack) of a sudden stratospheric warming event, which severely disrupts the strength of the polar vortex and sharply increases the odds of colder weather heading into February. Our gas-weighted heating-degree-day forecast numbers are 3% higher than the 1981-2010 normals in November, but are then slightly lower than normal for December, January, and February.”

Ode natgas jako prema dolje.
Gledam UGAZ, liči mi na breakdown prema zoni oko 10-10.5 Ako stane natgas na potpori iz sredine 8 mjeseca.
To bi bilo idealno za long.
Kakve su prognoze i vrijeme u USA?

…frende…evo kaže mi Vakula…bablja jesen u US
….,a forexpros…govori o mild US autumn [emo_namigusa]
…inače…ja se nauživao našeg babljeg…prošli tjedan…
….jesi li mi još XIV(iran) [emo_smijeh]

Hello frende. Pozdravi Zorana Molekulu [emo_smijeh]
Vrijeme je bilo savršeno.

Nisam XIV, lagano gradim mega shit i kontra pozicije (TZA, SPXU)

long, konjica je stigla (vrijeme)

For goodness sake cover your shorts right here or at least find a way to protect yourself. Look at the weather forecasts and the potential for a historic cold outbreak and snow late next week. Frontier weather has 115 TDDs next week ending the 15th by their calculation vs 92 5 year, and 110 last year. They showed 80 for the report we saw today and 89 thru the 8th.

I don’t want to see anybody loose their shirt but I see the potential by the end of next week to be 30 to 50 cents higher than we are right now.

Check the GFS and EURO models, check the NAO, AO, and other models.

8.11. je inače važan datum…tight sl frende

ugaz ..buy

do kad smo u longu? ideje?
3.8-3.85?