[color=blue]Dow plunges, then rebounds, after Fed rate cut [/color]

[color=black]Until recently, many economists, such as Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, were confidently predicting that major economies in Europe and Asia would shake off any ill effects from a U.S. recession. The gathering market rout indicates growing fears that such “decoupling” will prove a mirage.

The global economy is expected to grow 4.8% this year, down from 5.2% last year and 5.4% in 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund. But with global markets falling hand-in-hand, some fear further deterioration. “We hope things aren’t as bad as they may look,” said Andrej Bajuk, finance minister of Slovenia, which holds the rotating European Union presidency.

Oil and gold prices also fell. Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell to $87.72 a barrel on expectations that slower U.S. growth will lead to less demand for crude. Spot gold, which usually benefits from market uncertainty, fell to a two-week low of $855.20 per troy ounce[/color]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-01-22-stocks-tue2_N.htm

Odličan tekst o stvarnim dosezima FED-ovog rezanja kamata
__________________________________________________

Why the Fed can’t save us

Bernanke and company are using up their limited ammunition, but there remain genuine problems with the low dollar and U.S. debt, argues Allan Sloan.

By Allan Sloan, senior editor at large

NEW YORK (Fortune) — Forget all those rational explanations about about why foreign stocks markets, especially in Asia, have been melting down for two days. Despite what you’ve read, seen and heard, those declines weren’t caused by fears of what a recession in the U.S. would do to the profits of companies whose stocks trade in places like India, China and Russia.

Rather, the meltdowns were flat-out market panics, where rationality gets tossed out the window as everyone tries to head for the door at once and gets trampled. Go-go markets, especially in Asia, had risen to ridiculous heights – they were going up because they were going up, and momentum fed on itself. Now, they’re going down because they’re going down, and momentum is feeding on itself again.

The fact that the Federal Reserve Board announced an emergency cut of 0.75 percent in short-term rates shows that the Fed thinks the problem is a market panic rather than economic fundamentals. Normally, the Fed would have waited until mid-day next Tuesday – the second day of its scheduled two-day meeting – to announce a rate cut. Announcing an out-of-schedule cut today before the stock market opened shows that its motivation is to calm the markets rather than to reinvigorate the U.S. economy.

Here’s why. First, it won’t be clear until the summer whether a recession is in fact underway in the U.S. Even though the nation’s economy seems likely to have shrunk in December, there’s no such thing as a one-month recession. “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,” (my italics) according to the definitive authorities on such things, the business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Second, even if you believe that the Fed’s cut in short-term rates will stimulate the economy, that won’t happen overnight. If you took a Fed economist out for a few drinks and promised not to quote him, he’d tell you that the benefits of a cut take at least six months to percolate through the economy. There have been market panics and freeze-ups all over the world since last summer, when the junk mortgage meltdown in the U.S. started gathering speed. These have been confined mostly to the debt markets, which – unlike the Dow Industrials – don’t resonate with most people and can’t be summed up neatly in one familiar number, as the Dow is.

But now there’s a panic in the stock markets, where it’s visible for all to see. Last year, 41 of the 100 best-performing stocks were from India, according to Russell Indexes. The Shanghai stock market almost doubled.

This makes no sense unless you consider the Indian and Shanghai markets to have been undiscovered before 2007 – which they weren’t. Had the Fed not done anything today, the Dow could easily have fallen 600 or 800 points. (It’s down only 75 as I write this, but day’s end, who knows where it will be?)

The problem is that the Fed has only a limited amount of rate-cut ammunition, and expended a lot of it today. It’s expected by the markets to cut rates again next week, and will have used up most of its bullets.

[color=blue]Banks drive partial recovery in Europe stocks
Markets still haven’t recouped Monday’s losses; Fed cut helps [/color]

[color=black]European markets were slammed on Monday amid growing fears that the U.S. economy is headed for a sharp downturn, with banks among the biggest decliners as worries that they may have to make more asset write downs weighed.

It was the largest cut in the federal funds rate since 1982, after the FOMC had driven rates to 20% to kill inflation.

David Page, a strategist at Investec Securities in London, said: “It was a very aggressive move by the Fed clearly designed to stop a downward spiral in stocks.”

And Haynes added: “Markets got oversold and were already in the process of attracting bargain hunters when the Federal Reserve came in and cut rates.”

Adrian Darley, a fund manager at Resolution Asset Management, agreed.

“We were investing cash (into stocks) on Monday, and we were investing cash this morning,” he said, pointing to truck makers like Daimler [DAI] and Greek banks such as Bank of Pireues as stocks he likes.[/color]

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=INTERNATIONAL&guid=%7BFD8F2908%2D6EB8%2D4120%2D81F5%2D500EABD2CC8B%7D

… nastavak
___________

I don’t want to get into the what-should-the-Fed do game – I’m a recovering English major, the Fed is full of brilliant people with doctoral degrees and access to information that I don’t have – but I’m growing increasingly uneasy watching short-term rates in the U.S. fall when we’re so dependent on foreign money to cover our trade deficit and the U.S. budget deficit.

I’m also less than thrilled watching commodities prices rise, although oil has been drifting down lately. There are already worrying signs that foreigners, who keep score in their home currencies, have grown tired of losing money because the value of the dollar’s dropping. Should the dollar’s decline turn into a rout, a distinct possibility, things are going to get really messy.

Look. We can’t depend on the Fed – or any individual institution – to save us. The Fed isn’t all-powerful – and wasn’t all-powerful under Alan Greenspan, either. Current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn’t have a magic wand he can wave to make everything all right on both Wall Street and Main Street. He’s doing the best he can, but the Fed’s influence isn’t what it was when financial markets were much smaller than they are now, and far more regulated.

Because of its budget and trade deficits, the U.S. has to worry about what the rest of the world thinks. That’s what happens when you’re a debtor nation. There are huge risks in cutting short rates, and risks, too, in having Uncle Sam borrow another $150 billion to $200 billion (primarily from foreigners) to finance a short-term stimulus package.

The bottom line: In the long-term, markets are generally rational. In the short term they are…well, markets. They’re prone to irrational run-ups and irrational declines. Don’t expect them to act the way you want them to. And don’t expect the Fed to save you if they don’t.

________________

Dakle, kriza u US je malo ozbiljnijeg karaktera. Zato se danas crveni i nakon FED-ovog rezanja kamata.

ako češ na temelju Šprajcovih izjava (i one ženske Kovačićek) kupovati/prodavati onda burza nije za tebe……[bye]
ali da se neće oporaviti odmah sutra to je sigurno!

OIF-ovi za sada imaju dovoljno novaca i mislim da su to danas i pokazali. Pretpostavljam da su procijenili da su trenutne cijene dovoljno niske, te da ce im ulaz sada osigurati siguran prinos za ovu godinu. Ako se pogledaju strukture prvih 10 dionicara na nekim dionicama moze se vidjeti da su fondovi proslih dana kupovali, kao sto su to i danas radili (danasnji redovni promet 195.403.295,85kn prometa). Oni su se ocigledno pripremili za ovu situaciju (izmedu ostalog prodavali dionice i mirovinskim fondovima). Naravno ima i onih koji nisu spremni. Pogledajte Iliriku na ZVZD i na BLJE.

Da li to znaci da je kod nas korekcija gotova? Mislim da nije. Ali ako iz USA dobijemo jos koju dobru vijest, pa Agrokor dobije Migros, pa Tadic pobijedi na izborima u Srbiji, … moglo bi se to brzo okrenuti prema gore. Barem kod nas.
Sutra? Ne ocekujem prevelike minuse.

p.s.
samo razmisljam na glas

Pad je zaustavljen, EU završila je u snažnom zelenilu, a lijepo se zeleni i amerika. Zato sutra spremajte keš jer isto slijedi i nama [thumbsup][thumbsup][thumbsup]

Sav cash je danas potrošen u nadi boljeg sutra.[pray]

Kriva Amerika. Ovo je prava:

http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=dow_jones

Lijepo je to gledati u teoriji, ali u praksi je sasvim drugačije. Ciklus korekcije još nije prošao.
Nadam se da ćemo sutra gledati barem nekakve signale, koji će nam pomoći pri odluci kupnje ili prodaje.
Ali ako je malo ljudi u cashu, pitam se da li će fondovi samo tako dizati cijene, a situacija se još nije smirila.

da.
i dow daleko iznad 11.500.
sutra nema panike ako se azija stabilizira.
vidjet ćemo sjutra izjutra.[sealed]