Kako prebroditi svjetsku krizu uz što manje posljedica – makroekonomski pogled

Naslovnica Forum Tržište kapitala Hrvatska Kako prebroditi svjetsku krizu uz što manje posljedica – makroekonomski pogled

Forum namijenjen svim temama vezanim za dionice, obveznice i druge vrijednosne papire te trgovanje istima u Hrvatskoj.

Gdje je ta trgovinica?
Meni svejedno nije jasno da moramo biti skuplji… Kome ide ta razlika?

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."


Gdje je ta trgovinica?
Meni svejedno nije jasno da moramo biti skuplji… Kome ide ta razlika?

Pohlepnim trgovcima


Gdje je ta trgovinica?
Meni svejedno nije jasno da moramo biti skuplji… Kome ide ta razlika?

H&M robe ima u malom dućanu u importaneu, iste cijene…rade 3 zgodne viskoe hercegovke, prodale bi ti kubik šljunka…meni su zelenu jaknu [bye]


Hebemu misa Conan, casha uvijek ima… Moze ga centralna banka nastampat kolko hoce. Samo ako zavrsi ko depozit kod FED-a, slaba vajda od njega…

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS?cid=123

A vidi multiplikator:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT?cid=25

monetarna baza:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGAMBNS?cid=124


A Shedlock, koji neskriveno vjeruje u deflaciju, je priredio i checklist. Možda je zanimljivo za prokomentirati.

[img]http://i71.servimg.com/u/f71/13/01/91/22/deflat11.png[/img]

US took freewheeling capitalism to the limits and the wheels came off

na kraju to sve nije ni bitno 🙂

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvgwR9ERCBo&eurl=http://www.pointbite.com/2008/12/01/wrap-your-head-around-the-10th-dimension/

https://childhealthsafety.wordpress.com/2012/03/14/government-experts-cover-up-vaccine-hazards/



Mene samo zanima zašto ste sad toliko ljuti kad imate tako veliki postotak ljudi protiv priključitve k EU

nije uopće bitno želimo mi ili ne u EU, ja osobno sam protiv i bude li referendum glasat ću protiv, a i cijela moja familija. međutim, ovakvo ponašanje slovenije je krajnje bezobrazno jer je i slovenija ušla u EU a BEZ DA JE RIJEŠILA PITANJE GRANICA S HRVATSKOM! prema tome, ono što nitko nije sloveniji postavljao kao uvjet, sada slovenija svoje problematične granice postavlja kao uvjet i ucjenu hrvatskoj!! to je ono što iritira i što je krajnje bezobrazno!
ja osobno od jučer ne kupujem slovenske proizvode, a ne idem više ni u slovenske terme iako sam tamo išao godinama. stvar principa!
osobno smatram da hrvatska sada treba aktivirati ZERP, zabraniti slovencima kupnju nekretnina u HR, a postojeće nekretnine slovenaca u HR oporezovati extra porezom pa da vidim tko će koga!

p.s. mateja, ovo nije ništa osobno kontra tebe, ti si OK osoba, pozdrav
[/quote]
Hvala za ovaj tvoj odgovor jer ja sam željela nešto u tom smislu odgovore ili onaj od Deimosa koji je bio iskren ali isto je rekao svoje mišljenje o svemu tome…

[emo_cool]


A Shedlock, koji neskriveno vjeruje u deflaciju, je priredio i checklist. Možda je zanimljivo za prokomentirati.

[img]http://i71.servimg.com/u/f71/13/01/91/22/deflat11.png[/img]

Zanimljiva tablica. Malo je subjektivo popunio polja…. i zašto je YES za rising dollar, koji period on gleda? a NO za rising money supply, hm?

da su pustili ekonomiju na miru ona bi sama išla prema deflaciji, ali sve mjere i monetarne i fiskalne su hiperinflativne i samo je pitanje vremena kada će se osjetiti učinak

Bernanke vjeruje da će pokrenuti ekonomiju i onda uspijeti izvući višak novca na vrijeme. Bit će zanimljivo to gledat…. / ili možda neće ni pokušat spašavat stvar u svrhu akcije kajlanja arapa i kineza [proud]

The cure for low price is low price. Demand goes up, supply comes down, the price goes up.


H&M robe ima u malom dućanu u importaneu, iste cijene…rade 3 zgodne viskoe hercegovke, prodale bi ti kubik šljunka…meni su zelenu jaknu [bye]

[huh]

a kad se sjetim svih onih ZG tablica u Seiersbergu…..

The cure for low price is low price. Demand goes up, supply comes down, the price goes up.

heh pusti ti Benakea … žiku našeg junaka …

Napominje da će za financiranje deficita tekućeg računa platne bilance vjerojatno biti potrebno i odgovarajuće smanjenje deviznih rezervi središnje banke, a bude li to eventualno više od planiranog moglo bi imati negativne implikacije na kreditni rejting Hrvatske u inozemstvu i povjerenje štediša.

prži se prži …

I love the Smell of Profits in the Morning

Jednostavan i vrlo razumljiv aktualan članak na temu deflacije:

http://www.independent.org/blog/?p=598

Nonsense about Deflation
By Robert Higgs on Nov 30, 2008 in American History, Economics, Money and Banking, Taxation

We are now hearing ominous warnings about imminent deflation. Checking the welcome page at AOL this morning, I see that the lead item in the financial news section heralds “The Looming Threat of Deflation.” This headline encapsulates two highly problematic ideas. The first is that deflation would necessarily be a bad thing. The second is that deflation is likely to occur in the near term.

That deflation is always and everywhere a bad thing, not simply a bearer of bad news, but bad news in itself, is now an almost universal article of faith among mainstream economists and financial commentators. Clicking on the scary headline, I opened an article by Ted Allrich, who is described as “the founder of The Online Investor and author of the book Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth and Sleep Well at Night.” Allrich’s article, which does nothing to alter my belief that most investment “experts” are simply charlatans, encapsulates virtually every untutored and fallacious idea you’ve ever encountered in regard to deflation.

As he tells the story, deflation brings on all the horrors in the catalog of economic devastation.

As prices decline, businesses sell less, then go out of business. Fewer goods and services are offered. Less doesn’t become more. It becomes less.

As businesses fold, capital dries up because investors don’t believe any business will make it, no matter what the product or service. Investors hang on to their cash. Hording becomes synonymous with survival. Wall Street (what’s left of it) can’t find capital for new companies to grow. Investors won’t invest.

. . . So with deflation, there is less of everything. Businesses don’t grow. Jobs are fewer. Capital is not available. Everything comes to a slow and grinding halt.

Allrich concludes his litany of deflation horrors, naturally, by singing the praises of inflation: “Regular inflation, in fact, can be a good thing since it suggests an ever growing economy where jobs are plentiful and goods and services abound. ”

Well, all right, we can’t expect Allrich to have read George Selgin’s splendid little book Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy (London: Institute of Economic Affairs, 1997). After all, the book has been available for only eleven years, and investment experts are busy people.

But why, one wonders, has he not taken to heart what I wrote thirty-seven years ago in my first book, The Transformation of the American Economy, 1865-1914 (New York: Wiley, 1971), on p. 21: “Notably, rapid economic growth occurred both before and after 1897; neither a falling nor a rising general price level was uniquely associated with economic growth.” To elaborate just a bit, the rate of economic growth from 1866 to 1897, a period of secular deflation, was perhaps the greatest ever experienced by the U.S. economy during a period of comparable length. Real GDP grew by more than 4 percent per year, on average, notwithstanding the persistent deflation.

So, even if you’ve not mastered the works of Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard, even if you are a confirmed positivist in your methodological bent (as I was in 1971), you can see clearly that the rate of economic growth and the rate of price-level change have been independent, at least within the ranges of these variables in U.S. economic history. (Hyper-inflation or hyper-deflation would be another matter: either would be devastating by making economic calculation and long-term contracting virtually impossible.)

Any decent economics teacher makes sure that before the students have gone more than a week or two, they have mastered the difference between absolute (nominal) and relative (real) prices. All of economic analysis hinges on this unders

The cure for low price is low price. Demand goes up, supply comes down, the price goes up.

(nastavak)

analysis hinges on this understanding. Yet, practicing politicians, investment gurus, news media hyper-ventilators, and others who play important roles in influencing public opinion are completely lacking in this basic understanding. The upshot is a destructive bias in favor of secular inflation, with the risk of periodic bouts of rapid inflation.

Which brings us to the second question: for better or worse, does deflation actually loom at present? If it does, its occurrence will surprise me greatly, because the Fed has been creating base money as if there were no tomorrow, and if the bailouts continue, as seems likely, more of the same is virtually certain. So far, the huge spurt in base money has simply been absorbed and held by the banks in the form of (legally) excess reserves, but the likelihood that the banks will sit on $268 billion of excess reserves forever is nil. Once they feel more secure, their loans and investments will go forth in search of a higher yield than the Fed pays them (since a recent change in policy) on their reserves, and at that point the banking system’s money multiplier will kick in with terrific force.

In short, given the monetary conditions now prevailing, the greater threat by far is inflation, not deflation. And contrary to what the investment “experts,” the politicians, and the mainstream economists believe, inflation is not a benign element in the economy’s operation. It is, as it has always been, the most dangerous and destructive form of taxation.

The cure for low price is low price. Demand goes up, supply comes down, the price goes up.

vidi ti austrijanaca što su pametni!? hm, možda dogovorim i transfer …

ne kužim što je htio reći s prvom točkom … inflacija i deflacija … po meni niti jedna niti druga nisu dobre, osim u granicama normale … a sad što je normala, to je drugo pitanje …

što se tiče druge točke, deflacija je izgledna opcija ako se nastavi ovakav sentiment, što je teoretski moguće, ali teško izvedivo s tolikim novcem u opticaju … no, nešto mora pokrenuti ekonomiju … a to je u ovom slučaju novčana masa … heh … samo kad se poveća v, hoće li uspijeti smanjiti m?

bez obzira na sve, ja mislim da nam, generalno gledajući, treba jedan kataklizmički scenario … barem za RH … jel’ ako ovo preživimo, a da nam je jedini problem što smo spržili pola deviznih rezervi i nešto malo otkaza, onda nismo ništa napravili … nastavit ćemo po starom i kugla iz ugla nas čeka za 2, 3 ili 5 godina …

moramo nekako pokrenuti gospodarstvo … to je ključno pitanje …

I love the Smell of Profits in the Morning

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