Kako se mjenjaju postovi kako se ekipa ukrca odnosno iskrca.
A još prije tri dana smo čitali ovdje kako je izvještaj pozitivan-napisao dotični kolega-pa kako bdi ide snažno up.
Sad smo odjedan put postali preoptimistični, a još prije 20 dana kad je JDPL bio na 90 kn. dotični su pisali da ga čekaju nsa 50 i da je i to puno.
Pa vi sad sami zaključite-samo ću podsjetiti da JDPL ima više od 200 kn po dionici na računu žive love.
ps.Prema mojim informacijama izvještaj če biti u četvrtak ili petak i bit će pozitivan. [thumbsup]

Ajde da se malo uputim u vode gdje ne plivam bas naj bolje. Kina. Zar nije kazano da ce Kina ostvariti rast BDP-a od 6% i to uglavnom na domacim projektima. Pogledajte samo knjige narudzbi kineskih skverova kojima se brodovi otkazuju leva-leva. Vjerujem da ce uskoro (kad zavrse brodove u gradnji) poceti zatvaranja. Koliko ce to smanjiti potrebe za celikom. Dalje Kineski izvoz zbog recesije u ostatku svijeta drasticno pada. Sta bi to trebalo znaciti? Gotovi proizvodi siroke potrosnje se naj cesce prevoze u containerima. Dok ne skoci standard nema shopinga. Dalje u Kinu se uvozi ruda i ugljen za vlastitu potrosnju sta znaci da pored containerasa stradavaju Handy-ji i Supre jer za njih nema dovoljno povratnih tereta a na bazi puni za Kinu i prazni natrag ne ostvaruju profit jer su mali.

Amerika. Slazem se da je dobro da padaju zalihe. A koliko ce jos pasti banaka? Otrovani plasmani jos izlaze na svjetlo dana. Pa zar to nije pokazao i nedavni test? E sad ja parafraziram. Kako ce se smanjenje zaliha odrazit na brodare? Ja bi rekao nista posebno na kraci period. Pritisak nove tonaze na marketu je jaci nego porast potraznje za brodskim prostorom. Novi brodovi zasigurno postizu i bolje rezultate ali stariji skidaju gace kako bi prezivili sta se naravno utice na visinu vozarina.

Kolega vezano za Hapag opet pogreska. 1Q je bio los a 2Q se ocekuje losiji. I to je surova realnost ili buducnost o kojoj pricate.

Na kraju JDPL. Kakve rezultate ocekujete u 2Q budu li oba containerasa vezana. Ostaje 5 bulkera od kojih je jedan ako je info tacan u godisnjem najmo na 9000 dnevno.

Kakvu buducnost kupujete kolega?
[/quote]

Ovaj vaš info ću provjeriti pa ću javiti.

@TECHMAN
kolega neda mi se ulaziti u dublju raspravu i trositi nepotrebno energiju,moje misljenje je da je buducnost svijetla,tim vise sto je ovo jos uvijek drzavna tvrtka..
napomena samo za kineze imali su rast bdp u 1Q nesto preko 6% unatoc jako slaboj proizvodnji u 1 i 2 mj…ocekivanja su puno visa,samo da napomenem 3 i 4 mj industrijska je proizvodnja podignuta i to ne bas malo index proizvodnje je rastao cca 50%..ali mi se zbilja neda vise prepucavati tako da uvazavam vase misljenje ali se ne slazem s njim..puno pozdrava..do tipkanja pozz

jel ima ko podatak kad će izvješće???

pa i one koji daju ne kuzim ako je korekcija,pa nije depresija,pricekas par dana..ok kuzio bih da je neko veliko s..nje puklo negde,pa panika ali trend ostaje up,proda da bi kupio jeftinije,pa samim tim sam sebi rusi cijenu to je ok ako je trend padajuci..prodaj da bi kupio jeftinije ali iskreno bar trenutacno nije stoga ne kuzim ove koji se iskrcavaju po bidu…

BDI ”no longer indicator of real economy”, says Unctad

Justin Stares, Brussels – Monday 11 May 2009
THE Baltic Dry Index is no longer a bellwether of the world’s economy, according to new research.

Pundits who watch the four-route composite index for signs of industrial decline and recovery might do well to look elsewhere, because the numbers have lost touch with the industrial reality.

According to the Geneva-based United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the index has in fact been out of kilter with industrial production for the last six years.

Despite its following in the mainstream press and a fan base said to include Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, the index is no longer an indicator of the real economy because it reflects tonnage over-supply as much as demand for raw materials, says Unctad. Volatility, which has increased substantially, has also made a wider interpretation of the numbers less meaningful, Unctad says in its latest newsletter.

“Observing the development of the BDI and its increased volatility over recent years, it is perhaps no longer the excellent indicator that it was during the period 1985–2002,” the newsletter says. “The BDI as a compendium of charter rates reflects not only changes in demand for raw materials but also changes in the supply of shipping capacity. This contributes to the fluctuations of the BDI, and thus reduces the usefulness of the BDI as a ‘leading indicator’ for industrial production.”

The index reflects shipping’s notorious boom-to-bust cycle, the report’s authors point out. “Shipowners order new vessels when times are good, yet delivery takes place two to three years later.” If an economic recovery is underway, you won’t see it in the Baltic Dry Index: “Even if demand were to pick up now, the surplus of capacity would still prevent charter rates from returning to the high levels of 2008.”

Other factors have skewed the index, the authors point out: “New technologies and vessels are more expensive, while requiring lower expenditures for fuel or manning. Small variations in demand thus lead to larger variations in prices.”

Referred to by one business magazine as “the best economic indicator you’ve never heard of”, the Baltic Dry Index is today influenced to a much larger degree by financial traders with no direct interest in the industry.

“The BDI appears to be increasingly influenced by market players who are not themselves providers or users of shipping capacity. An indicator of this trend is the growth in forward freight agreements. In 2005, the volume of physical trade was twice the (financial) volume of FFAs, while in 2008 the volume of FFAs was 10%above the volume of physical trade.”

Neither should containership charter rates be considered a good economic indicator, Unctad says.

“Just as in dry bulk shipping, the global downturn in container ship charter rates is attributable not only to the downturn in demand, but also to an oversupply of shipping capacity. Today’s tonnage on order in the world’s shipyards amounts to almost 50% of the existing container-carrying capacity, and already today 11% of the container ship fleet is reported as idle or laid up.”

Container freight rates are just as likely to be moved by trade imbalances, port characteristics and piracy as by global economic growth trends, the report says.

Techman obrati pažnju na boldirano.
Pozdrav

Naravno Zivko. A sad ti pogledaj malo odnos BDI sa DRYS, Norden, Excel.

Podji Zivko na Nordenovu stranicu i ako te interesira mozes usporediti sve key playere sa BDI. O ovim razlikama u vrijednosti (ali nema razlika u trendu) bi ti trebao napisat lancun ali imam sve manje volje za pisanjem.

Kolege, koliko Vi truda, vremena i energije ulozite pisuci o fundamentalnim vrijesnostima…
stvarno svaka cast na volji.

a kad bi samo bili svjesni da se cijene krecu po tehnickoj analizi…
[undecid]

Ma naravno kolega. Ponovit cu jedan svoj post sa LKPL.

TA kaze da ce rasti a ako ne bude rasla onda nece.

TA je zasigurno predvidjela da ce Zrin ostat bez posla. A da TA zaposlimo kao komercialnog direktora?

Baltic Exchange Dry Index 2253 UP 38
BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2988 UP 75
BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 2158 UP 11
BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1639 UP 28
BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 772 UP 15

Izvješće ide u četvrtak! [thumbsup]