bdw. u četvrtak će to zvanično potvrditi i drIvo [thumbsup]

DNV warns overcapacity will reach 10,000 ships
Norwegian classification society head Henrik Madsen says 6,000 vessels could be idle by 2013

Srijeda 11 ožujak 2009

GLOBAL shipping could be facing overcapacity of up to 10,000 vessels, according to estimates from Det Norske Veritas.

The Norwegian classification society has seen 43 of its own vessels cancelled over the year, which it said represented 10% of the number of vessels cut from the global orderbook to date.

It has also estimated that up to 1,000 ships are lying idle.

Data collated from Singapore, Hong Kong and other international anchorages points to the the facilities being full and Singapore is said to be turning vessels away as its various resting anchorages have reached capacity.

In a startling assessment of the current situation, DNV president and chief executive officer Henrik Madsen, pictured left, said that the number of cancellations was likely to rocket over the coming months.

He compared the present climate to that of the 1970s, when Japan was forced to reduce a large amount of shipbuilding capacity.

“Some thing will have to happen on the supply side but here it is not one nation now, but all nations that somehow have to agree to take out capacity, which may be difficult,” he said.

He said that by 2013, if the global economy remains stagnant, there could be more than 3,000 ships scrapped, 1,444 cancelled and over 6,000 vessels either in lay-up, slow steaming or idling.

If the economy were to decline by 3%, there was a risk that this figure could increase to 12,000 vessels. Even with a more positive scenario, where the economy picks up to 3% growth after 2010, there could still be an over capacity of 4,000 ships.

“To believe it will be over in one or two years is a bit naive,” Mr Madsen said.

The DNV data does not separate ship type, but makes the assumption that the global fleet was operating at almost full capacity when it was hit by the economic downturn and that its growth matched economic growth.

The scenario DNV has created assumes that scrapping will be at about 600 vessels a year for the next four years.

Up to 2,400 newbuilding contracts could be delayed during the same period.

This has led to speculation that some yards may be converted to become environmentally approved dismantling facilities to meet expected interest from owners needing to dispose of tonnage underthe the International Maritime Organization’s ship recycling convention, which is being finalised.

With the number of vessels either idling or in lay-up increasing as much as six-fold, the question of where to mothball them must be addressed.

While the depth of the current economic crisis has shocked most industry experts, most shipowners laying up vessels are opting for the temporarylay-up and adopting a wait-and-see approach.

However, if the crisis were to deepen, this could trigger more permanent lay-ups and a further challenge in the future when tonnage needs to be reactivated.

Kao što sam i prije pisao o ovoj dionici najbolje govore fundamenti koji kažu da je ova dionica stvarno podcijenjena i da su ove cijene zbilja smiješne. Dok ove cijene ne dođu na normalne razine ( za nekoga su oko 150 – 200, a za druge od 500 prema gore) treba proći malo vremena. što se pak tiče ovih malih "brana" na pojedinim cijenama mogu reći samo da i najveće brane popuste ako dođe velika bujica. Nakon što brane popuste cijena ove dionice iznenadit će mnoge koji trenutno oklijevaju.

Pozdrav

03.12.08. jdpl = 118 kn, BSI = 579, BHSI = 307

11.03.09. jdpl = 92 kn, BSI = 1735, BHSI = 775

na kolko još moraju doći vozarine pa da se to odrazi na cijenu …

vozarine se moraju vratiti gdje su bile da bi cijena došla gdje je bila [embarass]

Kuku lele sta uradi. Izgleda da su moji postovi srusili brodare u trenutku kad sve ostalo zeleni. Nisam zasluzio jedinicu vec -273 (apsolutna nula)

Poštovano društvo!
Bit ću iskren. Neki dan i danas uzeo sam 250 komada. Kad ova dionica odapne prema gore (na pariće s Atlantskom) jer ko da su vezane pupkom, nećete se stić okrenut, a ako dođe na 50 uzet ću još 500. Pa jebo Vas nijedan rat ne traje duže od 4 godine (mislim na ozbiljne ratove a ne Izrael-Palestina, to je vječno), di neće ova financijska kriza. Još ove godine grobi je na 2500. Mi smo presretna država koja je toliko ubila proizvodnju da se nemora bojat recesije. Dovoljno je smanjit uvoz na pol i posadit vlastitu salatu i već smo na nuli. Bili bi u banani i bez recesije. AL ko bolje duda bananu od nas ?!? Samo mirno i dokup…

ova šuga će padat i na crobexu od 4000 meni se čini
ovo mi je roknulo više i od hdel-a