meni je žao a i malo neugodno što sam danas kupio 1 (jednu) dionicu kao neki luzer ali imao sam tih 700 kuna koje su mi već dugo stajale na računu i držao ih onako za sreću da ne bude baš prazan račun ali kad sam vidio taj premarket i renesansu brodara i trenutnu cijenu onda sam pomislio hebeš talisman kud ćeš veće sreće nego ovako jeftini jadroplov.
to znači da ti je ostala stoja
taman za 30 komada pounja
[thumbsup]
JADROPLOV D. D./REDOVNA JDPL-R-A – usporedba sa 05.02 strana 529
Vlasnik računa Stanje [%] Vrsta računa
1. DRŽAVNA AGENCIJA ZA OSIG. ŠTEDNIH ULOGA I SANACIJU 1.034.455 63,20 Zast. račun
2. HZMO 111.667 6,82 Zast. račun
3. HRVATSKI FOND ZA PRIVATIZACIJU 43.569 2,66 Osnovni račun
4. PBZ D.D. 42.200 2,58 Skrb. račun
5. HPB D.D./HPB-INVEST – HPB GLOBAL OIF 19.685 1,20 Skrb. račun
6. HPB D.D. 15.152 0,93 Skrb. račun [color=blue]-112[/color]
7. HPB D.D./HPB-INVEST – HPB DYNAMIC OIF 13.881 0,85 Skrb. račun
8. PODRAVSKA BANKA D.D. 12.512 0,76 Skrb. račun [color=blue]-56[/color]
9. PBZ D.D. 12.012 0,73 Skrb. račun [color=blue]+356[/color]
10. JADROPLOV D. D. 10.011 0,61 Osnovni račun
Ukupno: 80,35
iz ovog gore se da skužit da su zazvonili margini [lol]
uspio dokupitii na 560 pa ako i slucajno padne jos nema uzrujavanj jer po fundamentima je dobar i na 600
dobar je i na 800 po fundamentima….
a nadajmo se da više neće ovako padat….BDI krenuo napokon….valjda se to odrazi i na naše brodare više….
zanimljivo je kako neki uvijek imaju casha za dokup. Aj gle Špancir, sve je to ok i legalno, prodat na 640 i kupiti na 560-580, al daj nemoj pliz pametovati sa strucnim analizama, potcjenjenosti i tako to…mislim to je onako, tesko navlacenje naivnih. Nisam htio spominjati imena u svom prethodnom postu al kad vec se nastavlja sa istim stilom….
Molim da netko od iskusnijih forumaša, s neposrednim uvidom u brodarski sektor, komentira donji članak.
Dry Bulk
Broker warns of ‘potential disaster’ to dry bulk
By Michelle Wiese Bockmann – Thursday 7 February 2008
Iron ore being loaded onto a bulker
A “VERITABLE orgy” of newbuildings and slowing Chinese steel production could see a global downturn hit dry bulk shipping faster and much harder than expected, one of London’s most respected ship brokers has forecast.
The report outlined a series of new scenarios which could dramatically slow iron ore exports to China, which have been at the heart of the five-year bulk shipping market boom. With the global steel industry accounting for half of dry bulk demand, there are “potentially disastrous” consequences, Howe Robinson Shipbrokers warned in its annual dry cargo report.
“I don’t think we’re bears,” said one of the report’s authors. “I just think we are highly cautious about certain things that I don’t think have been factored in yet.”
The views found support from the International Steel Trade Association, which said China’s rising steel production accounted for 40% of global supply.
China’s unforeseen and dramatic rises in steel production in the last five years has encouraged a huge expansion in the whole supply chain, including the ordering of bulk carriers and opening of new mines, said ITSA chairman Ian Sherwin.
“China is a net exporter of steel, the EU is a net importer and the US is a net importer. These are the markets that determine trade balance and they are suffering a little,” Mr Sherwin said.
Howe Robinson’s chief concerns centre on the longevity of the six-year-old commodity supercycle, the swollen bulk carrier orderbook, and a “highly likely” move by Chinese steel mills to use more domestic iron ore from the second half of this year, reducing cargo flows.
“We are rapidly becoming much more concerned than the prevailing consensus and see ever growing downside risks for the shipping industry,” the report said.
The dry bulk orderbook last year grew to 2,832 ships of 244m dwt, including a new generation of very large ore carriers to be delivered over the next five years.
“We don’t believe our own orderbook figures,” Howe Robinson said, in what was an “embarrassing caveat”.
But the “veritable orgy” of ordering added to question marks and uncertainty over tonnage flows in 2008 and beyond.
A significant but as yet unexplained slowdown in Chinese steel production in the second half of 2007 was of “potentially great significance”, the report said.
If the lull was caused by delays in building and commissioning new blast furnaces, the Chinese faced short and medium-term constraints.
But if the slowdown was related to shortages of metallurgical coal to feed blast furnaces, there would be serious implications for the capesize fleet, which has driven the dry bulk chartering boom.
“If we have reached a point in the cycle where coal has become a bottleneck in China, its implications for the iron ore trade and hence the dry bulk market are potentially disastrous,” Howe Robinson said.
The report also raised the possibility China could switch to using more of its lower-grade domestic iron ore in steel mills to “settle a few scores”. Mr Sherwin said the technology had improved in the last five to 10 years to allow China to more efficiently use its domestic iron ore.
Howe Robinson forecast Chinese steel production in 2008 to grow by 13%-15%, or 63m-73m tonnes, the lowest rate of growth since 2001. Likely expansion for international iron ore trade was around 100m-110m tonnes.
“If they [China] were to opt not to buy all the increase in international production, shockwaves would be sent through the international ore markets, and the capesize market would plummet if unsold stocks were permitted to build at the major ports of shipment for the first time in a decade.”
Howe Robinson said these and oth
gorgija: ” meni je žao a i malo neugodno što sam danas kupio 1 (jednu) dionicu kao neki luzer ali imao sam tih 700 kuna koje su mi već dugo stajale na računu i držao ih onako za sreću da ne bude baš prazan račun ali kad sam vidio taj premarket i renesansu brodara i trenutnu cijenu onda sam pomislio hebeš talisman kud ćeš veće sreće nego ovako jeftini jadroplov. ” to znači da ti je ostala stoja taman za 30 komada pounja [thumbsup]
vidiš dobra ideja. a ja mislio čekati na KORF da se spusti [rolleyes]
ali možda je ipak trenutno bolje prodati sve KORF i IGH koje imam i prijeći i s tim u plovare [smiley]
Evo jednog objektivnog posta sa drugog foruma od zlatnog:[thumbsup]
Po FFA od petka navečer očekujem daljnji minimalni 5 % rast BDI u ponedjeljak )))))))))))))))))))))))
Zao mi je sto sam Drysa prodao na 74, ide to još gore sad , a s njime idu i nase uzdanice JDPL i ATPL
C3 Physical Rate for 08/02/2008 60.341 +3.136 plus 5,1 %
C3CURMON Feb (08) $/ton 59.000 +1.437
C3+1MON Mar (08) $/ton 59.250 +1.812
C3+2MON Apr (08) $/ton 58.938 +1.875
C3+3MON May (08) $/ton 58.125 +1.812
C3+4MON Jun (08) $/ton 57.313 +1.563
C3_1M1QNR Jul (08) $/ton 56.750 +1.500
C3_1M2QNR Oct (08) $/ton 56.000 +1.312
C3_1M3QNR Jan (09) $/ton 54.375 +1.562
Rollover dates for 2008
C4 Physical Rate for 08/02/2008 29.895 +2.054 plus 6,3 %
C4CURMON Feb (08) $/ton 30.958 +1.250
C4+1MON Mar (08) $/ton 32.883 +1.300
C4+2MON Apr (08) $/ton 33.833 +1.458
C4+3MON May (08) $/ton 33.208 +1.208
C4+4MON Jun (08) $/ton 32.733 +1.316
C4+5MON Jul (08) $/ton 32.125 +1.250
C4+6MON Aug (08) $/ton 31.792 +1.459
C4+7MON Sep (08) $/ton 31.458 +1.416
C4_1M1QNR Oct (08) $/ton 31.333 +1.458
C4_1M2QNR Jan (09) $/ton 30.042 +1.125
C4+1CAL Cal 09 $/ton 28.230 +1.083
C4+2CAL Cal 10 $/ton 21.967 +0.792
C4+3CAL Cal 11 $/ton 19.292 +0.400
C4 Physical Rate for 08/02/2008 29.895 +2.054 plus 6,2 %
C4CURMON Feb (08) $/ton 30.958 +1.250
C4+1MON Mar (08) $/ton 32.883 +1.300
C4+2MON Apr (08) $/ton 33.833 +1.458
C4+3MON May (08) $/ton 33.208 +1.208
C4+4MON Jun (08) $/ton 32.733 +1.316
C4+5MON Jul (08) $/ton 32.125 +1.250
C4+6MON Aug (08) $/ton 31.792 +1.459
C4+7MON Sep (08) $/ton 31.458 +1.416
C4_1M1QNR Oct (08) $/ton 31.333 +1.458
C4_1M2QNR Jan (09) $/ton 30.042 +1.125
C4+1CAL Cal 09 $/ton 28.230 +1.083
C4+2CAL Cal 10 $/ton 21.967 +0.792
C4+3CAL Cal 11 $/ton 19.292 +0.400
4TC_C Physical TC Rate for 08/02/2008 108620 +5256 plus 5,15%
4TC_CCURMON Feb (08) $/day 112813 +2063
4TC_CCURQ Feb/Mar (08) $/day 118375 +3375
4TC_C+1Q Q2 (08) $/day 127375 +3156
4TC_C+2Q Q3 (08) $/day 122000 +2687
4TC_C+3Q Q4 (08) $/day 118438 +3063
4TC_C+4Q Q1 (09) $/day 100688 +2500
4TC_C+1CAL Cal 09 $/day 86922 +2609
4TC_C+2CAL Cal 10 $/day 62688 +1250
4TC_C+3CAL Cal 11 $/day 47438 +594
P2A Physical Rate for 08/02/2008 66900 +2900
P2ACURMON Feb (08) $/day 68768 +1661
P2A+1MON Mar (08) $/day 71464 +1821
P2A+2MON Apr (08) $/day 71643 +1814
P2A+3MON May (08) $/day 71107 +1786
P2A+4MON Jun (08) $/day 70393 +1929
P2A+5MON Jul (08) $/day 69286 +1965
P3A Physical Rate for 08/02/2008 37464 +3218
P3ACURMON Feb (08) $/day 44679 +1286
P3A+1MON Mar (08) $/day 49464 +1357
P3A+2MON Apr (08) $/day 51143 +1536
P3A+3MON May (08) $/day 50179 +1429
P3A+4MON Jun (08) $/day 49500 +1357
P3A+5MON Jul (08) $/day 48714 +1268
ugodan vikend i ljubomoran sam na one koji su imali keša za ATPL na 2500-2600 i JDPL na 560-600 ))
pa…čitao sam neki članak (stvarno ga ne mogu više nać) o DRYS, piše da za njega prema TA je očito da slijedi bullish run…..uz to BDI raste…..
samo čekam i promatram kada će i naši krenuti, nadajmo se u ponedjeljak….[thumbsup]
Ovo me podsijeca na vrijeme prodaje Grckog paketa , kad je cijena u jednom danu skliznula sa 300kn na 200. ( a prije je ATH bio na 550 kn). Prezivjeli smo to, kad je zbog krize na trzistu brodara bilo opravdanja za pad. Mislim da je sada stanje puno bolje, trziste tereta je stabilno s najavama rasta, JDPL pliva u kesu, stabilno je zaposlen, brodovi su mislim u godisnjem TC ugovoreni daleko iznad break even-a. Prica se o dvije novogradnje iz brodosplita koje ce doci po diskonto od 10% (poticaji od drzave….). Dakle kolege, napravite sebi uslugu i ugasite racunalo…..[smiley]
Ovome bih dodao da je Trogir zakljucen sa prvom brojkom 4 (rast sa 16000). Prije 10-tak dana kolege iz JDPL nisu bas bili sigurni da li ce poceti sa tri (bojali su se da ne bude 2). [tongue]
Vjerujem da ćemo od ponedjeljka gore…koliko sam primjetio u inozemstvu su brodari rasli i još je preporuka -strong buy. Kod nas su unatoč povoljnijim fundamentima padali, jednom se mora i to okrenuti, još nam i famozni BDI ide u prilog, zašto nebi i kod nas bilo -strong buy[thumbsup]