nisam dovoljno upućen u to, pa vjerujem. Ali, to ipak znači da je netko (ili više njih) toga istoga dana kupilo 4.xxx tisuće dionica JDPL!? Ergo, svejedno je li gornja konstatacija točna ili ne, zaključak je isti…

Evo jednog članka s Lloyd’s lista koji daje predviđanja za iduću godinu
Dry Bulk

Dry bulk rates set to go even higher
By Marcus Hand in Shanghai – Monday 26 November 2007

Boom: rates for dry bulk shipping will continue to soar
THE drybulk shipping boom is expected to continue into next year, with even higher freight peaks a possibility before a major correction, leading analysts and players believe.

While drybulk shipping has seen record orders in recent times with an equivalent of 72% of the entire capesize fleet currently on order, in the nearer commodities demand combined with congestion is set to keep the freight market at very high levels.

“On the fleet side there is a clear excess of the capacity expected to develop by the end of decade due to this record expansion and is growing much faster than the anticipated cargo growth. However there is short term upward potential for freight rates at times such as now, where we’ve got very tight supply and demand,” Philip Rogers, head of research for Galbraiths told the Lloyd’s List Seatrans Conference in Shanghai.

Dr Rogers in fact predicted that freight rates could indeed yet past their historic highs of recent months, despite a weakening in recent days.

“We should expect more of the same, short term volatility in the market, we haven’t maybe seen the overall absolute highest level of the freight market, maybe more record prices which implies record asset prices and supply disruption,” he said.

Noble Chartering senior executive vice president R Raghunath expected forecast rises in iron ore and coal prices to push up freight rates in the first part of next year as buyers look to beat price rises boosting demand.

“We believe that first quarter (2008) will be stronger, there’s been a bit of a bursting of the bubble in the market over the last week or 10 days, but we expect a fairly strong first quarter ahead of expected commodity price rises in April,” he explained.

With stocks built up in the first quarter he does foresee a correction by the middle of the year as stocks will have built up in the first quarter. However quizzed if the drybulk was about to enter a cyclical downturn Mr Raghunath said he did not see the market returning to $10,000 a day level for capesizes.

Looking at the issue of the softer sentiment for forward freight agreements in the months ahead Dr Rogers did not see this as necessarily a sign that the market is set to weaken.

“At the end of first quarter 2007 there was no sign from the FFA traders that the market was going to go up, they were then dealing in lower levels than at the time,” he said, explaining that the actions of shipowners dated back to the economic theories of Maynard Keynes.

“There are a number of risk adverse consumers, ie shipowners who are willing to sacrifice future earnings, sacrifice risk premium in order to safeguard in the future.”

However should port congestion clear and all the newbuildings on order be actually delivered there could be a “tipping point” for the market somewhere in the next 18 months.

Port congestion is seen as major factor in effectively reducing the supply of vessels.

Commenting on the situation at the world’s largest coal port in Newcastle, Australia, he said: “If we have 40 ships waiting 20 days or more that’s a substantial reduction to supply so the overall fleet availability is being reduced.”

Dr Rogers is of the view that port congestion is not a new phenomenon, dating back as far as the early 1980’s and is not set to go away either.

Noble’s Raghunath believed that port congestion would combine with longer trade routes to effectively reduce the impact of the increased supply of ships.

“The newbuilding deliveries will be offset by port congestion and longer trade routes. That’s something we’ve got to live with until new ports come up,” he said.

A factor though commonly cited for reducing the supply of newbuildings in coming years –

I danas je pritisak na prodaji dosta veliki, nalozi se stalno spuštaju na dole. Upravo stigao nalog na 661 kom po cijeni od 694 kom.[undecid]
Mislim da će to iskrcavanje još dugo trajati ako nebude neke podrške na kupnji jer očito mali igrači nisu dovoljni da kupe ovakve količine.

Za dokup je još uvijek malo preskupo , a iskrcavanja i štopanja će vjerojatno trajati još do kraja godine , potpomognuta trenutačnim kretanjem indeksa.
Ništa , nekad treba i čekati , kaže Buffett.

kolege ajde da pustimo ovoga sa 600 i nešto i još ostatak koji misli prodati pa da se toga prije riješimo
ovako sami sebi rušimo cijenu jer želimo prije njega…
osim ako nam nije hića [huh]

Točno! A tko ne može čekati manje od 25 radnih dana, slobodno može prodati…

Mislim da će se ovdje ponoviti priča s BLSC na početku ove godine. Samo što ovdje umjesto PBZ-a imamo HPB.

Vidim elita se polako vraća na ovu temu.Pozdravljam.
Usput , ne znam što se dogodilo s BLSC na početku ove godine.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -106 9897
Baš nam ne ide ovih dana

Neide,neide..a nema ni casha za dokup[cry]

Evo, prošli izbori HDZ pobojedio. Kratkotrajna euforija na burzi , koja je trajala svega jedno popodne. Nastavak negativnog niza pokazao je današnji trgovinski dan, pa nek mi onda netko kaže kako su izbori krivi za sve.

Baš razmišljam, da li bi bilo vrijeme uzeti margin na ovim cijenama. Čini mi se dosta nisko, ali opet to mi se činilo i na 750 kn. Ima li tko pametniji ovdje sa prognozama?

da al se zato zeleni[smiley] i to posteno.Danas su dokupljivali ,sutra brodari se penju
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=DRYS,DSX,EGLE,ESEA,EXM,GNK,NM,QMAR,TBSI&d=v1

dok Sanader ne dobije mandat dionica će stajati na ovim razinama, a čim se sastavi HDZ-ova Vlada idemo dalje.
Pozdrav