Hm, da se ne bi svi našli pod hrpom upitnika zbog čega je BDI trenutno nizak treba ipak reći da i kineski uvozi željezne rude i kineska proizvodnja čelika padaju značajno ispod mjesečnog ovogodišnjeg prosjeka. BDI je ipak pokazatelj trenutne aktivnosti na tržištu.
Ako se uzme u obzir da bi se nagodinu trebalo približno jednako uvesti rude i proizvesti približno jednako čelika kao i ove godine, znači da će se prosječno mjesečno proizvoditi ipak više od trenutnog stanja, pa prema tome i BDI mora biti viši.
Zbog toga futuresi pokazuju veće vrijednosti indeksa u 2009.g.
Za 1Q oko 1750, za 3Q 2850, a za cijelu godinu oko 2500.
Jučer je BHP Billiton najavio velika ulaganja u povečanje proizvodnje i širenje lučkih kapaciteta
BHP Billiton Approves Major Capacity Expansion At Western Australia Iron Ore
25 November 2008
BHP Billiton today announced approval of the Rapid Growth Project 5 (RGP5) with a total capital investment of US$4.8 billion (BHP Billiton share). This includes previously approved capital of US$930 million.
RGP5 will increase installed capacity across our Western Australia Iron Ore operations by 50 million tonnes to 205 million tonnes per annum* (100 per cent basis). RGP5 is expected to deliver first production in the second half of the 2011 calendar year.
The majority of production growth will come from the Yandi and Mining Area C operations. RGP5 will also deliver significant infrastructure upgrades including additional shipping berths at the Port Hedland inner harbour (Finucane Island), substantial double tracking of the company’s rail system and additional crushing, screening and stockpiling facilities at Yandi.
BHP Billiton Chief Executive of Ferrous and Coal, Marcus Randolph, said that “while there is substantial uncertainty in the short term outlook, this investment decision highlights BHP Billiton’s confidence that the long term outlook remains positive. The expansion also underscores our belief that high-quality West Australian iron ore with close proximity to China and the Asian markets, is an important source of supply. With our strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to invest in hiqh-quality and low-risk projects such as RGP5”.
BHP Billiton’s partners in the Western Australia Iron Ore operations are Itochu Minerals & Energy of Australia Pty Ltd, Mitsui-Itochu Iron Pty Ltd and Mitsui Iron Ore Corporation Pty Ltd.
*BHP Billiton attributable share is approximately 85%.
Evo potvrde Hangerovih proracuna za rezanje broda:
Vessel name_______ Size__Ldt___ Built_ Buyer ____Price
BC Hebei Dilligence 65,484 17,790 1984 Bangladeshi 250
(250 * 17790 = cca 4.5 mil USD)
Kako komentirate najnoviji sunovrat BDI-a?
Kako komentirate najnoviji sunovrat BDI-a?
BDI na -93,5% od ATH
Last reported price za Cape 2773 $
Cape rates su na -98,8% od ATH
"Jeremy Penn, chief executive of the Baltic Exchange, said in an interview that the Baltic Dry Index was now close to its all-time low reached in 1986 and conditions were now more extreme even than then.
The index – which measures average rates in the short-term spot market to charter ships to carry iron ore, coal and other bulk commodities – reached 763 points, 93.5 per cent down from the all-time record high of 11,793 points hit on May 20. Rates for the largest ships, known as Capesizes, are down 98.8 per cent from the record $233,988 per day set on June 5 to $2,773."
Vozarine nisu dovoljne ni za kikiriki i koštice.
Perepektiva trenutno nikakva
Naši brodari uopće nemaju Capesizove,ovo su zadnja dva danas ugovorena Panamaxa,kao šta vidiš njima su vozarine puno veće nego Capeovima
27.11 YASA TEAM Ship Name YASA TEAM DWT 75,621 Built 2006 Flag MAI Draft 13,9950
TCT 75,621 06 26-30/11 USD 7,250 DAILY VIA WC INDIA CNR
27.11 TIAN YU FENG Ship Name TIAN YU FENG DWT 74,272 Built 2001 Flag HKG Draft 13,95
TCT 74,272 01 26-27/11 USD 9,000 DAILY VIA BL.SEA&SAUDI BUNGE
Vodeći nezavisni stručnjaci po pitanju tržišta metala i rude (CRU international) su nedavno donijeli temeljem vlastitih analiza nekoliko interesantnih pretpostavki o skorašnjoj budućnosti ponude i potražnje za čelikom.
a) Prema njima su cijene čelika uslijed globalnog rezanja proizvodnje u čeličanama, dosegnule svoje dno. Ovime je zaključen eventualni daljnji pad potražnje za čelikom u idućoj godini. U nadolazećem periodu prema njihovim analizama ne postoje razlozi daljnjeg pada cijene čelika, a zamijećen je već i blagi oporavak cijena.
b) Uslijed najavljenog kineskog financijskog paketa poticaja izgradnje infrasturkture i ostalih investicija, smatraju da će se potražnja za čelikom na razini Kine ipak dodatno povećati i nagodinu, za otprilike 5%, što predmnijeva barem minimalan rast proizvodnje čelika u Kini. Značajniji se oporavak potražnje uslijed poticaja očekuje početkom 2Q.
c) Nejasan ostaje jedino utjecaj kineskog izvoza, jer bi uslijed produbljivanja krize mogla značajnije pasti potražnja ostalih zemalja uvoznica.
Iako nema pravih podataka kolika bi mogla biti svjetska potražnja za čelikom u 2009.g., mnogi vjeruju da će nešto povećana kineska potražnja održati barem ovogodišnje razine svjetske potražnje. Nenadan poticaj bi svjetska potražnja mogla dobiti i u odobravanju američkih investicija u infrastrukturu, što je jedan od strateških planova koji je osmislio novi američki predsjednik, a koji planira provesti u iduće dvije godine (prvenstveno u cilju očuvanja radnih mjesta).
Paradoksalno bi, prema nekima, globalni državni poticaji u obliku ulaganja u infrastrukturu (prema američkom modelu), kako bi se održao nacionalni GDP i sačuvala radna mjesta, mogli dovesti ne samo do adekvatnog porasta potražnje kroz naredne dvije godine, već i pravu nestašicu sirovine (ž.rudače). Jer moguće je da će uslijed bržeg oporavka ekonomija i bržeg izlaska iz recesije, doći do relativno sporijeg oporavka proizvodnje (iskopa) potrebne količine rude. Drugi element nestašice bi predstavljali odgođeni planovi ekspanzije najvećih rudarskih firmi.
Očito postoji jedan veći prostor mogućih događaja razvoja ovog tržišta u naredne dvije godine, nego se do prije mjesec dana moglo pretpostaviti.
Vale confirms cancellation of 12 VLOC at Rongsheng yard, China
Brazilian iron ore giant has definitely scrapped an order for 12 very large ore carriers at Jiangsu Rongsheng taking the number of cancelled bulk carrier orders this year to around 250. The $1.6bn order, China’s largest ever, is part of a general belt tightening for the Brazilian firm ahead of an expected tough 2009. The 400,000 dwt design would have been the largest ships ever built in the People’s Republic. The order cancellation was confirmed by a senior official from Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co while speaking at a conference in Singapore this week.
As adapted from Singapore Business Times
Vale confirms cancellation of 12 VLOC at Rongsheng yard, China
Brazilian iron ore giant has definitely scrapped an order for 12 very large ore carriers at Jiangsu Rongsheng taking the number of cancelled bulk carrier orders this year to around 250. The $1.6bn order, China’s largest ever, is part of a general belt tightening for the Brazilian firm ahead of an expected tough 2009. The 400,000 dwt design would have been the largest ships ever built in the People’s Republic. The order cancellation was confirmed by a senior official from Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co while speaking at a conference in Singapore this week.
As adapted from Singapore Business Times
Mislio sam da je ta priča već odavno gotova.
Pričali su o otkazivanju tih novogradnji još prije mjesec dana.
A ako kome treba kejp, ima ih i po 1.000 $ po danu …
Dry Bulk
Capesize owners split by decision to fix or lay-up ships
By Keith Wallis – Friday 28 November 2008
WHILE rates continue to plunge, capesize owners find themselves into two camps.
One group, including a large proportion of Asian owners, is prepared to still play the market, fixing time charter deals that at least pay the cost of vessel insurance.
Owners in the other group have preferred to park their vessels in an attempt to ride out the worst of the storm.
“Owners in the first group are prepared to accept lower rates to keep their crews and ships active,” one Hong Kong broker said. “The overriding consideration is to keep vessels operating to provide mental stimulation for the crews by keeping them busy.”
The broker pointed out that owners in the second camp hoped that by parking vessels it will help rates to rise by creating a psychological shortage of ships. “But at the end of the day there’s still plenty of tonnage out there,” he said.
Another Hong Kong broker discounted suggestions that owners were offering their ships for free provided charterers pay insurance and crew costs.
“There are no sophisticated charterers, it’s a straightforward cash transaction based on a daily rate. The fact charter rates only cover insurance or crew costs is incidental,” he said.
This came in response to this week’s fixing by Cargill of a Mitsui OSK Lines capesize relet at just $1,000 per day.
At the same time, the average of the four time charter rates remained in freefall, dropping by around $1,000 in a week to close the week at $2,425 per day.
The one bright spot as rates continued to slump was on the Western Australia to China trade, where charter rates showed a very modest rise on Friday of $0.02 to $3.89 per tonne compared with the day before.
“We see a little bit of movement. Recent spot and time charter deals have soaked up maybe 10% of the ships that are on the availability list. So it helps, but there is a long way still to go,” said one of the Hong Kong brokers.
“Traders are fixing some iron ore cargoes into China so they can reduce the average cost of their inventories. But that’s about it.”
The broker pointed out that there was a surge in paper rates for the fourth quarter 2009 contract last Thursday.
“The optimists thought it looked like the market was starting to pick up. But to others it looked the work of speculators and the positive sentiment quickly died,” he said.
Fearnleys said the 176,000 dwt, 2003-built CSK Fortune was fixed by Oldendorff for a fronthaul voyage from Brazil to China at $5,750 per day with a $175,000 ballast bonus, but the broker said the bonus did not cover the ballast costs.
The Norwegian broker added: “On steam coal, South Korea is the only light we see, with month-on-month volumes up by over 13%, though this only benefits the smaller capesize vessels due to port restrictions at the discharge port.”
Pricali su, sada su potvrdili. Nek se nadje za statistiku… Uostalom, dok BDI ne krene gore, nema nikome sunca…IMHO.
Dakle evo ono što sam ostao dužan o čitavoj lepezi mogućeg raspleta na tržištu željeznom rudačom
(skinuto s linka CISA – China Iron and Steel Association):
Credit Suisse – Steel output recovery may cause iron ore supply shortage by 2012
发布时间:08-11-28 阅读次数: 9
If China’s steel output returns to the previous level spurred by the economic stimulus plan, the global iron ore market would face a supply shortage in 2012, according to Credit Suisse. The iron ore market is currently keeping balanced after miners in Australia and Brazil announced plans to cut output. China’s steel output will grow at a pace of 5.5 percent annually from 2012 and per capita iron ore consumption will increase to 600kg to 650 kg from currently 450kg to 500 kg.
December 01, 2008
China to face shortages of railway material
According to information made available in Tokyo, China’s rail requirements for double-tracking are estimated to total 4,600,000 tonnes for the rail weighing 50 kilogram per m concerning government plans to enlarge domestic railway networks.
The Chinese government is contemplating spending the equivalent of JPY 57 trillion during 2009 to 2010 in which steel demand is estimated to be huge. Among the economic stimulus measures, ones for railway networks are forecast to shape up in the immediate future toward the improvement of existing railway networks besides construction of new railways.
In this connection, the Chinese government plans to build new railway networks measuring 23,000 kilometer overall that will cover Qinhuangdao in the north and Guangzhou in the south. It is understood that the plans will require a total of nearly 4,600,000 tonnes of rails for the product with a weight of 50 kg/m, rail requirements that will amount to two years of domestic rail production. China’s rail production capacity is estimated at 2,000,000 tonnes per year.