Pokrenuo sam ovu temu kako bi se malo raspravilo o situaciji koja dolazi. Duznicka kriza sekundarnog trzista kredita, 2008 godina u kojoj dolazi na naplatu najveci dio tih kredita,no hoce li oni doista biti i naplaceni.

malo crnjaka ?

Credit crisis to shape IMF forecast
Analysis
By Andrew Walker
Economics correspondent, BBC News, Washington

The global economy’s outlook is uncertain
It all looked so rosy the last time the IMF and World Bank ministerial committees met back in April.
Then the IMF was looking at four years of robust global economic growth, with another one coming next year.

The fund’s chief economist Simon Johnson declared “we haven’t seen a four-year span like this since the early 1970s”.

Now despite the sub-prime mortgage and credit market problems that blew up in the US in the past couple of months, the IMF still sees a reasonably rosy year ahead as the most likely outcome.

The new forecast for global growth is 4.8% in 2008. The IMF calls that figure “solid growth” and it would be the fifth consecutive year of reasonably robust performance.

Nonetheless, the mark of the recent financial market turbulence is clearly visible. For one thing, the growth forecast for next year has been revised downwards by almost half a per cent.

And that forecast is just the IMF economists’ judgement about what is the most likely growth figure for next year.

They always throw in some comments about how things might turn out different to that central forecast. This time, they say the risks have increased.

There are several channels through which the US mortgage crisis could do wider economic damage, which the IMF is likely to be watching warily in the coming months: banks and others sustaining losses; business credit drying up; American consumers; and the currency markets.

Banks

We already know that banks and other financial institutions have lost money as Americans with sub-prime mortgages couldn’t maintain the payments.

Some lenders have gone out of business in the US and a sub-prime specialist has exited the UK mortgage market.

But the pain is not confined to the original lender. Mortgages were in effect bundled up together and resold in the financial markets, to a wide range of financial institutions. They too lost money when the defaults started to mount.

Those losses have been spread around the international financial system: Bank of China (a commercial bank), Citigroup, Credit Swiss to name just three. The betting in the financial markets seems to be that the worst news in this area is over. That is what is behind the continued strength of share prices – with many markets hitting new highs – despite the sub-prime fall-out.

Business credit

This is another issue where the markets seem to think things won’t get much worse. The sub-prime fiasco illustrated very starkly that borrowers do default, so many lenders have become more wary.

That was the root of the problem for the British mortgage bank Northern Rock.

There has been evidence that some other businesses are paying higher interest rates to borrow money, to fund investment or just to pay workers and suppliers while they wait for customers to pay. American consumers

Spending by consumers accounts for about 70% of the US economy. The housing market problems may well make Americans more reluctant to continue to increase their outgoings.

Falling house prices make people feel less well off and more hesitant about spending sprees.

A lot of spending has been financed by borrowing. If prices fall, houses are also less useful as collateral – something the lender can seize if the borrower defaults.

A decline in US consumer spending could very well spell recession, if it were to happen.

Trade deficit and currency markets

Many economists think a slow down in US consumer spending would be a very welcome development.

Ja kandidiram ovaj problem:

Baby Boomer Retirement: The Nightmare in Our Future

* Social Security’s long-run cash flow deficit is $11.1 trillion — almost equal to the current size of the entire U.S. economy.
* The total shortfall of Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) and Part B (doctors’ services) is $47.7 trillion; and the new prescription drug benefit will require $17.7 trillion.
* The unfunded liability of Medicare and Social Security combined totals more than $76.5 trillion — more than seven times the size of our economy.

http://mysocialsecurity.org/main/news.php?ItemsID=165

SLK, dobro da si boomere spomenuo. Balon nekretnina je dobrim dijelom pokrenut imajući njih u vidu. Išla je spika, kao nemaju povišice plaća i imati će male ušteđevine, ali će to zamijeniti velika vrijednost u nekretninama i dionicama, što direktno što preko fondova.

E izgleda da neće ići baš tako lako.

Ne znam samo kako će vam to pomoći.
BSN

Problem koji navodi SLK je po meni broj jedan,mislim da bi najveća isplata trebala ići 2011,ako se dobro sjećam.
Moje pitanje za sve vas je: Kako se ponašati u slučaju fin. krize kod nas koja možda i nije baš toliko moguća,ali eto da vidimo koji su instrumenti ulaganja poželjni u tim situacijama…
Poz

Nažalost, to ćemo osjetiti i svi mi koji s BB generacijom nemamo nikakve veze. Nikakva financijska intervencija ne može pomoći.

Još jedna tema koja priziva korekciju, ovog puta globalnih razmjera….
Pustite ljude da vjeruju u dionice, nemojte im gasit nadu da buju zaradili velke novce a bez motike….

I ovak im je dosta ove korekcijice koju sad imamo na zse……

Se bu dobro ljudi, nemojte da vas zastraše i demoraliziraju s ovakvim temama…..

[smiley2]

je li ovo iz Kiyosakijeve knjige “Proročanstvo” ili tako nekako??

Ako se ne varam, kriza 1987 je uzrokovala 25%-tni pad, a to smo mi nedavno imali prije par mjeseci.[smiley1]
Nego jel netko zna tko je skrivio lom burze 1929-te? Nije se to desilo slučajno, iza toga netko sjedi, i netko je znao
par dana prije za to. Molim ponude.