Pogledaj malo braću preko bare.
Dow & Co idu gore k’o ludi a bulkeri u ponor.
Osjetljiva i likvidna divljač.

Ako je to tako jel mi možeš opravdati današnji pad vrijednost ATPL u odnosu na drugim brodarima. Hvala
[/quote]
Ja sigurno poznajem jednu firmu bolju od današnje Atlantske,a to je ona Atlantska od prije dva tri dana kada je BDI bio viši.Međutim,postavlja se pitanje koliko taj pad BDI utjeće na dobit ATPL.
Pošto ATPL uglavnom ima TCT kratkoročno to uopće ne smanjuje dobit.Dapaće s obzirom na rast
USA $ čak je dnevna dobit i veća.Normalno da ovaj pad BDI smanjuje procjenu buduće dobit,a samim time i cjenu dionice.

Veliki broj malih ulagaća ,koji su prošli pakao korekcije su u panici,te bi oni mogli napraviti veliki
lom ukoliko veći igraći ne stave branu.Oni odlućuju i u svakom slućaju ćeka nas interesantan dan
u ATPL.Ako se ukljući i trezor nema pada,pa makar to neki priželjkivali.

Svakom potencijalnom kupcu bi preporučio, da prije odluke o kupnji ili prodaje dobro prouči BDI ,njegove pojedinačne sastavnice ,jer je BDI prosječni dnevni rast ili pad vozarina,nešto slično kao Crobex za dionice. Ako CROBEX raste,ne rastu sve dionice .Neke i padaju.

Konkretno ova dva dana razlog ovog velikog pada BDI-a je veliki pad BCI koji se odnosi na capesize,
a te brodove naši brodari nemaju u svojoj floti.

Na sreću da je BDTI tankerski index u ova dva tri dana narastao preko 10 %,i na taj način ublažio ovaj veliki pad BDI-a.Naši brodari su u ovoj korekciji vozarina dobro prošli,a TNPL i ULPL čak dobili na
vrijednosti jer njihove vozarine rastu,a naročito BDTI najvažniji za TNPL.
LPLH je gotovo neokrznut.
JDPL isto tako.
ULPL veća korist od rasta tankerskih vozarina BDCI indexa,nego gubitak od bulkcariera.
TNPL najveći dobitnik jer omjer suhi: mokri cca 1mil DWT kao veliki dobitnik BDTI index i 180.000DWT handija BDHI index sa minimalnim gubicima.

Najveći problem u poslu sa dinicama je da vrijedi pravilo:Nije pravilno ono što ja mislim da je
pravilno,niti je pravilno ono što je pravilno ,već je pravilno ono što većina misli da je pravilno.

…

Capesize rates plummet as demand fades

Michelle Wiese Bockmann – Thursday 12 June 2008

Evaporating demand for iron ore has pushed rates downward.
CAPESIZE rates have tumbled in their sharpest one-day decline ever, as “panicking” owners accepted sharply discounted rates, amid evaporating Chinese demand for iron ore from Brazil and Australia.

The Baltic Capesize Index lost nearly 16% or 2,855 points today to reach 15,178 points, dragging the average time charter rate down by a staggering $33,000 per day to $180,237.

Those levels were last seen six weeks ago, and are 25% down on record highs a week ago.

“It has a lot to do with psychology as the charterers are dropping the rates very quickly, and a few panicking owners make a wrong decision, in my opinion, to accept them,” said a leading, London-based dry bulk broker.

“Cargill had one ship they decided to fix very cheaply and that caused a downward spiral.

“So there’s a lot of panicking going on, people are just making the wrong decisions, they have to hold on a bit.”

The number of capesize vessels available in late June has begun to rise as chronic congestion at Chinese discharge ports eases and rampant demand for iron ore finally begins to wane.

The Baltic Dry Index also dropped on the back of the volatility, losing 963 points, or 8.7% to reach 10,142 points, with panamax freight rates also affected.

The largest falls of $55,000 per day were seen in the Pacific region, where BHP Billiton had pushed rates up to a record last week after a month-long chartering spree.

The mining giant hired in May 30 capesize vessels to load iron ore from Western Australia but brokers report falling demand from China after record imports in April, as mills start to deplete the 82m-tonne stockpile.

Also fuelling the panic was paper trading, as profit-takers pushed capesize June contracts down by $14,000 per day to $192,000, according to Freight Investor Services.

“I don’t think this is forever but when it slows down a little bit you can see how frothy the market was and how it has to come back to some sort of normality, where you can still trade capesizes at $150,000 per day which are still amazing levels for shipowners,” said Phiippe Van den Abeele from shipping hedge fund Castalia Fund Management.

“This was not sustainable.”

He said that volatility was likely for a further six months.

“This is not the end of the world. The general macroeconomic environment is lending some support to a reduction in activity.”

Ovdje upišite svoj komentar…

Kočenje bar do 20-og :

…"Shanghai. June 13. INTERFAX-CHINA – The Chinese government yesterday
urged all domestic ports to report their iron ore stockpile reduction
plans by June 20 in order to efficiently solve the nation’s continuing
high iron ore stockpile problem, four government departments jointly
announced yesterday.
According to the joint announcement released by the National Development
and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), the
Ministry of Transport, and the Ministry of Railways, steel mills and
traders have been asked to deliver their iron ore stockpiles from ports
to steelworks as soon as possible.
Furthermore, all ports need to investigate iron ore stockpile volumes
and customers, and then report the results and their stockpile reduction
plans to the four departments by June 20. Local railway authorities have
been urged to assist ports in iron ore inland shipments….

Global iron ore shortage may continue up to 2012

Merrill Lynch indicated that the iron ore price will keep rising, and that the shortage of supply will continue to 2012.

Because of China’s strong demand, the contract price is expected to rise by 20 percent in 2009. The estimation is higher than market expectation by 5-40 percent.

Increasing energy, labor, and facilities costs and exchange fluctuations will become the main problems which producers will focus upon.

The Baltic Dry Index is plunging, but apparently it’s a temporary thing, so now might be the time to climb aboard.

The index, which measures the cost of hauling freight across the oceans, has fallen 12% since the start of this week alone, and as a consequence, shipping stocks are getting hammered.

Click here for larger image.

Navios Maritime (NM – Cramer’s Take – Stockpickr), Eagle Bulk (EGLE – Cramer’s Take – Stockpickr), Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK – Cramer’s Take – Stockpickr) and DryShips (DRYS – Cramer’s Take – Stockpickr) are down between 12% and 20% in the same time.

But that’s actually the good news.

This phenomenon seems to be a repeat of what happened to the dry-bulk shippers between November and January when iron ore negotiations between the Chinese steelmakers and Brazilian/Australian iron ore producers meant large freight vessels were left idling and freight rates really tanked.

That was a temporary event, and once the ore started shipping again in late January freight rates climbed and buoyed the shipping stocks.

TheStreet.com highlighted this move back in late January (click to watch the video: Freight Stocks Good for the Long Haul). Those who bought at that point would have made out handsomely, right up until a few days ago.

What we are seeing now is likely a repeat event, and it means there is a chance for those who missed the initial run-up to jump in, according to Natasha Boyden, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

Boyden says the Chinese have decided to draw down on their stockpiles of iron ore, around 78 million tons, instead on importing additional material. But those inventories are projected to last only about three to four weeks after which ships will be needed to haul in more, the result of which will mean a rise in freight rates.

"It’s a great buying opportunity," Boyden says.

Nešto Optimistično.

Ne kužim ekipu koja ocjenjuje postove poput ovog pdf atachmenta kolege Špancira sa ocjenom 8%.
Kak se ovo može nekom ne sviđati?

Barry Rogliano Salles Weekly Dry Bulk Market No 589

http://download.hellenicshippingnews.com/pdf/BRS/dbnl-589-4.pdf

Švedski kuhar s norveškim naglaskom tvrdi da su capesizeovi okrenuli , a svi ostali još tonu ….citiram:

.."Capesize-segmentet er opp 337 poeng til 13.890 poeng, mens Panamax-segmentet er ned 242 poeng til 8.418 poeng. Supramax-indeksen faller 45 poeng til 6.294 poeng, mens Handysize-indeksen faller 68 poeng til 2.970 poeng…."