Nije loša perspektiva za Mljet , Orsulu , Sv.Vlah , Ist….
Although rates have taken a plunge, brokers noted that from a long perspective rates are still historically high.
Owners of ageing vessels in what is still a bullish market are still turning their backs on the demolition yards, despite good prices on offer for scrapping.
The world fleet between 25,000 dwt and 40,000 dwt stands at 1,857 ships of 58m dwt, according to BRS. Of this total, 658 ships of 20m dwt, representing 35.4% of the fleet, are aged 25 years or older.[/i]
Malo press clipping-a.
Interesantno je kako i u razdoblju oštrog pada BDI-ja (i svih njegovih sastavnica) cijene polovnih brodova isto tako snažno rastu…….
Još jedna vijest koja mi se ne čini lošom……
[url=”http://business.hr/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=9264c122-7d02-4a4d-9236-4c62b85c6a3e&ref=lastadd”%5D
Zgodan pregled za nas ne-stručnjake…
Tian Song Feng (74,271 dwt, 14.5/33.5L 14.5/33.5B, 2000-built) delivery Goa Dec 1-7, redelivery China, $80,000 daily. (Brown Stone)
Ocean Baron (74,193 dwt, 14/34L 14.5/34B, 2002-built) delivery Gibraltar spot, redelivery Spore/Jpn Rge, $82,000 daily. (Taiwan Maritime Tran)
Rodon Amarandon (74,090 dwt, 14.5/33.5L 14.5/28.5B, 2001-built) delivery Rotterdam Dec 2-3, redelivery PMO, $83,900 daily. (Cargill Geneva)
Gulf Sieb (48,581 dwt, 14.00/36.60, 2007-built) delivery Amsterdam Nov 21, redelivery Cont/Med, 21 days, $50,000 daily. (Charterer not reported)
Bulk Pacific (39,245 dwt, 13/32L, 1981-built) delivery Annaba Dec 2-6, redelivery Lebanon, $47,000 daily. (Charterer not reported)
Mathawee Naree (28,300 dwt, 13.9L(A), 1996-built) delivery Mizushima Nov 26-30, redelivery Far East, $41,000 daily. (Allied Chartering)
Fearnleys
….”Dry bulk shippers are riding a wave of positive sentiment on Wall Street Wednesday, a welcome relief after last week’s cancellation of 20 shipments of iron ore because of port congestion. Dry bulk rates in the forward market have spiked over the last few days, increasing 10% on Wednesday alone. .……….Wednesday’s jump in dry bulk shipping stocks may be a rebound from last week’s disruption.Dry bulk stocks have been slammed over the last few weeks because of volatility in both the freight rates and the market in general. But analysts say the fundamentals of dry bulk shippers remain strong, making the downward pressure on the stock price a good buying opportunity….”.
05.12.07.
George (77,078 dwt, 15/44.5L, 1984-built) delivery Brake 8-10 Dec, redelivery China, $88,000 daily.
Fortune Ocean (76,801 dwt, 14/36L(A) 15/36B, 2006-built) delivery Swinouscie 8-10 Dec, redelivery worldwide, 3 months, $88,000 daily.
Navios Cielo (75,850 dwt, 14.5/33L 14.5/33B, 2003-built) delivery Mariveles 1-31 Dec, redelivery worldwide, 4 months, $82,000 daily.
North Prince (75,542 dwt, 14/32L(A) 14/28B, 1999-built) delivery Mariveles 4-6 Dec, redelivery China, $87,000 daily.
Century Star (75,318 dwt, 14/36.8L 15/36.8B, 2003-built) delivery Koper 6-16 Dec, redelivery worldwide, 4 months, $88,500 daily.
Globetrotter (48,911 dwt, 14.5L(A), 2001-built) delivery Reunion spot, redelivery China, $70,000 daily. (Oldendorff Carriers)
Marylebone (48,170 dwt, 14.5/28L, 2001-built) delivery Chennai 15-20 Dec, redelivery China, $64,000 daily. (Charterer not reported)
Scanda (40,187 dwt, 12.5/29L 12.5/29B, 1990-built) delivery Nacala prompt, redelivery Continent, $48,000 daily. (IVS)
Panamax star 23 godine na spotu (opet) dobiva 88.000 dnevno , a noviji brodovi toliko dobivaju za 3-4 mj T/C !
Na spotu za Panamaxe približavamo se cifri od 90.000 , a za Handymaxe 70.000 USD.
Najbolje aktualno zaključeno na spotu.. Panamaxi polako prelaze 90.000 , a Handymaxi lijepo napreduju i preko 70.000.
Handysize-ovi još malo zaostaju (iako s vrlo pristojnim vozarinama), ali nadajmo se da će i oni ubrzati , što je za očekivati.
06.12.07.
YM Rightness (77,684 dwt, 14.3/34.8L 15.1/34.8B, 2004-built) delivery Mo I Rana 5-10 Dec, redelivery Skaw/Passero, $91,000 daily.
Amalia (75,122 dwt, 14.5/37.5L 14.5/31B, 2000-built) delivery P Torres 12-14 Dec, redelivery San Ciprian, $86,500 daily.
Evanthia (74,297 dwt, 14/34L 14.5/33B, 2001-built) delivery Amsterdam 14-16 Dec, redelivery Far East, $89,000 daily.
Prabhu Daya (52,800 dwt, 14L(A), 2001-built) delivery Haldia 9-10 Dec, redelivery China, $75,000 daily.
Eleni M (50,961 dwt, 14.5/27.7L(A), 2001-built) delivery Lagos 1-10 Dec, redelivery India, $75,000 daily.
Sealady (42,183 dwt, 13.5/25L 14/25B, 1995-built) delivery east coast India 10-20 Dec, redelivery China, $55,000 daily.
Tai Gu Hai (37,393 dwt, 13/22.5L, 1985-built) delivery Mawan 15-19 Dec, redelivery S China, $43,000 daily.
African Lion (22,430 dwt, 13/19L, 1982-built) delivery Takoradi 10-15 Dec, redelivery Black Sea, $27,000 daily.
Dry bulk shipping boom set to continue
Wednesday, 05.12.2007, 12:45am (GMT)
Recent shipbroking reports have highlighted the latest cooling off of the freight market in what has become a booming activity during 2007, i.e. the dry bulk shipping market. ……… The reported postponement of at least 30 iron ore shipments on behalf of Brazil’s Vale (former CVRD), the second largest mining group worldwide, until the end of the year, due to bad weather conditions and strikes at Brazil’s railways, which have disrupted the supply chain, has added further fuel to the machine of ”market pessimists”, which could justify their argument on a freight market cooling-off scenario.
But things aren’t that simple. Vale has also contributed to a positive case scenario, by announcing a five-year investment plan which would see its production raised. The company’s iron ore production will increase by 7.1% and coal production will see a 39% hike, not to mention copper (15%) and nickel (14%), all because of China. In the ”People’s Republic”, efforts are finally undertaken to increase domestic consumption, which will see growth keeping its current pace. This is particularly dependent on a potential Chinese currency (Won) appreciation, which is expected to curb inflation and boost buying power.
Following Vale was Chinese investment group of Citic Pacific to invest $4.57 billion in a new mining project in Australia, intended to cover the increasing needs of China’s steel industry. At the same time, ………… China is set to become a net importer of coal in 2008 and possibly in 2009 as well, at least according to Guo Yuntao, managing director of the China Development Research Center of Coal Industry. He said that for 2007 China’s coal output should rise to 2.55 billion tons, up from 2.38 billion tons in 2006. By 2010, that figure is expected to reach 3 billion tons. But for the first time coal imports are expected to surpass exports this year.
…………… He also mentioned that coal for power generation is driving demand, with over 70 pct of the country’s power produced by coal-fired plants.
Until now, China used to drive the shipping market, mainly because of its appetite for iron ore and not coal, which was abundant. This appears to be changing, while coal is expected to be the ”star of the day” for India as well, having the same effects that China had. If India is to sustain economic growth of 8% a year, it will need to nearly double its electric capacity from 135,000 megawatts today to 250,000 megawatts by 2015, according to Tata Power.
But India already is running a coal deficit, with coal demand last year for the steel and energy industries reaching 468.5 million tons, 67.2 million tons of which had to be imported. By 2015, the country will be consuming about 880 million tons of coal but will have to import more than a quarter of it, consulting firm KPMG says.
Acting as icing to the cake, China Oriental a leading steel company in China, which was reportedly a buying target of ArcelorMittal, has announced its plans to increase production by a whopping 50% in the next three years. As one can understand, this kind of surge in production is like a new steel-making factory coming to production.
These developments in China are expected to have such large impact in dry bulk shipping, that leave one wonder as to what outside China implications can actively affect sea transportation’s prospects…….
In the worst-case scenario for shipping, the most likely event should be a rise of more investment opportunities, although at this stage asset prices (i.e. ships) haven’t shown any signs of softening…..
Australia eyes iron ore, coal price rises
Friday, 07.12.2007, 12:44am (GMT)
Asian steelmakers and power stations face big price increases for iron ore and coal in 2008/09 because of booming demand and supply constraints, the government commodities forecaster said. The forecasts by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) came as the country’s coal and iron ore producers begin to square off against Asian customers to set contract prices for the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2008. “Iron ore prices are expected to rise substantially in the upcoming round of contract negotiations for JFY (Japanese fiscal year) 2008/09,” ABARE said in its December quarter forecasts, without giving a numerical forecast. Australian iron ore contract prices have risen for the past five years, up 9.5 per cent in for 2007/08, 19.0 per cent the year before and a massive 71.5 per cent in 2005/06 when China’s demand boom kicked in. Another substantial price rise would be supported by strong China-led growth in global iron ore demand, rising production costs, an export duty by the Indian government, and significant US dollar depreciation over the past year, the bureau said. Th bureau noted that spot prices for iron ore sales to China were now $US100 a tonne above Australian contract prices after the spot price of Indian iron ore to China rose to $US180 a tonne cif (cost and freight) from around $US80 in 2007. It forecast that the value of iron ore exports in 2007/08 would jump by 16.2 per cent to $18 billion, leaving iron ore ahead of coking coal as Australia’s top export. The bureau also pointed to looming price rises in thermal coal contracts for 2008/09, after spot prices recently rose to record levels above $US90 a tonne. Last week spot prices rose further to $US100.25 a tonne for Newcastle coal.
“Infrastructure constraints at Australian ports are unlikely to ease significantly and Chinese exports are expected to remain lower than in recent years,” it said of 2007/08.
“With strong import demand expected to continue in Asia, a significant reduction in Newcastle thermal coal spot prices is the near future is unlikely,” it said.
As with iron ore, the present gap between spot and current contract prices represents a near-doubling of contract prices. The bureau forecast that Australia’s thermal coal export income in 2007/08 would rise by 8.4 per cent to $7.3 billion, after a three per cent rise in export volume to 115 million tonnes. Newcastle and Dalrymple Bay thermal coal ports are operating at capacity, although expansion plans are in place.
“Without coal allocation systems in place, it could be expected that there would be significant queues at Newcastle and Dalrymple Bay during the course of 2008,” the bureau said. The bureau made no forecasts for metallurgical coal.
Source: Business Spectator
Coal, Iron Ore Producers to Gain, JPMorgan Says
Friday, 07.12.2007, 12:40am (GMT)
Coal and iron ore producers may climb about 20 percent next year, outperforming other natural-resource stocks, because of price gains and supply shortages, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset management unit said. “I’m pretty much bullish on bulk commodities for next year,” Ian Henderson, who manages $6.4 billion in natural resource stocks at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in a telephone interview today from London. “The tight supply-demand balances will still persist.” Contract prices for iron ore may rise 50 percent in 2008, Macquarie Group Ltd. said in a Nov. 19 report. They have tripled in the past five years on higher Chinese demand. Benchmark coal prices rose to a record this year on disruption to supplies from Australia, the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel. Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, has almost doubled this year on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. Xstrata Plc, the world’s largest exporter of coal used by power stations, has gained 35 percent in London. “There’s no point in denying that there are huge uncertainties regarding the direction of the global economy,” Henderson said. “But the resources sector has the clearest picture in terms of demand. It will remain strong.” JPMorgan’s Global Natural Resources Fund has gained 27 percent this year and climbed 27 percent in 2006. Henderson said he also favors uranium companies, even after prices for the metal dropped 32 percent from a record in June. Delays at Cameco Corp.’s Cigar Lake mine in Canada will ”support” prices, he said. Uranium `Opportunity’
Uranium ”is a great buying opportunity at the moment,” he added. ”The market is at the foothill of a supply shortage.” Gold may gain next year, buoying shares of miners of the metal, because of supply shortages and demand from India and other emerging economies, Henderson said. The precious metal last rose month to its highest since 1980 as the dollar fell to a record low against the euro. “Gold won’t purely be a dollar-weakness play in 2008,” he said. ”I can’t imagine a wholesale sell off of the dollar.” Gold futures for February delivery fell $3.10, or 0.4 percent, to $804.50 an ounce at 11:38 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Oil may climb to more than $100 a barrel next year, trading at $80 to $120, he said. Crude rose to a record $99.29 in New York on Nov. 21. “I just don’t see a pullback in demand,” Henderson said. Freight Costs Shipping costs, which rose to a record last month, may remain “high” next year as demand for hauling coal, iron-ore and other bulk commodities strains global supplies of ships, Henderson said. “Companies haven’t properly factored in freight rates into their costs,” he said. “Shipowners are enjoying phenomenal profits at the moment.” The Bloomberg Dry Ships Index of 13 companies has more than doubled in the past year as vessel delays and rising demand for bulk shipments strained the global fleet. Henderson said he least favored producers of industrial metals as economic growth in the U.S. stalls, reducing demand for copper and other materials used for buildings construction. ”There’s no denying that there is a slowdown occurring,” he said. “It’s going to be a difficult year. I’m not totally bearish on base-metals producers, but it’s not going to be an easy ride for them as 2006 and 2007 was.”
Source: Bloomberg