Cit: …………….”negdje sam procitao da je vecina bulk carriera starija od 15 godina??)….”
Dry bulk fleet age profile:
1-5 – 23 %
5-10 – 19 %
10-15 – 19 %
15-20 – 8 %
20-25 – 16 %
25+ – 15 %
evo jos malo zanimljivosti:
Fearnleys
hvala Špancir.
tu ima konačno malo boljih vijesti za tankere.
………..”Iron ore prices are expected to shoot up by 30 to 50 percent next year, as growing urbanisation in countries such as China and India is likely to boost demand for steel, a fund manager said on Tuesday. “What’s driving demand for metals is primarily urbanisation, with people moving from agriculture-based activities to manufacturing, services-based activities located in cities,” Trevor Steel, managing partner of Baker Steel Capital Managers, told Reuters in an interview………….
……….”Another battle may be shaping up between China and Japan. This time, it’s over iron ore.
Both nations have an acute need for the product. Indeed, it is China’s enormous appetite for iron ore (about 500 million tons a year or more) that has been the major factor behind the recent enormous price increases and profits in the iron-ore industry around the world. Over the last three years alone, members of the iron-ore cartel–Brazil’s CVRD, Australian-based BHP Billiton and British-based Rio Tinto Group have raised iron-ore prices by, successively, 70%, 19%, 9.5% and for 2008, an estimated 50%.
Without China’s voracious need for iron ore, such huge price increases would have been impossible. Although China has some iron-ore reserves, the quality and quantity of those reserves is lacking. Japan, like China, is also a net importer of iron ore for its steel industry, as Japan has no domestic reserves.
India had huge potential for growth and that was likely to impact demand for iron ore and coking coal in the country………..
I zaključni dio današnjeg press-clippinga – vraćanje na osnove (sve si više ličim na Basila – Basile , gdje si ?)
…..”About Dry Bulk Shipping:
International shipping plays a vital role in global trade given that 2/3 of the world’s goods are transported by sea. The shipping industry provides a cost effective and practical means of transportation internationally of large volumes of cargoes.
The dry bulk carrier market refers to the transportation of homogeneous commodities in bulk. Dry bulk commodities are divided into two distinct categories, major bulks and minor bulks. Major bulks include iron ore, coal and grain, which are usually shipped on the larger size Capesize and Panamax vessels and comprise about 67% of dry bulk trade. Minor bulks are fertilizers, steels, sugars, cement etc., which are shipped in smaller more versatile vessels such as Handymax and Handysize, and comprise about 33% of the dry bulk commodities trade.
Dry bulk carrier ownership is fragmented with many owners and operators of shipping tonnage, including independent operators, state-controlled shipping companies and proprietary owners. Vessels utilised for transport of dry bulk cargoes are usually classified into four categories based on their carrying capacity in deadweight tons (DWT) (i) handysize (10,000-39,999 DWT) (ii) handymax/supramax (40,000-59,999 DWT) (iii) panamax (60,000-99,999 DWT) and (iv) capesize (higher than 100,000 DWT).
The shipping industry is highly cyclical, experiencing volatility in profitability, vessel values and charter rates resulting from changes in the supply of and demand for shipping capacity. Fluctuations result from the interaction of various factors between demand and supply. The demand for vessels is influenced by global and regional economic conditions, international trade developments, port congestion, trading routes and weather pattern changes, crop yields, armed conflicts, political developments, embargoes and strikes, demand for consumer goods, dry bulk commodities, and crude oil and oil products.
Supply of shipping capacity is mainly a function of the delivery of new vessels and the number of older vessels scrapped and is also affected among other factors by port congestion and regulation of maritime transportation practices by governmental and international authorities.…”
Još jedan poučni člančić o firmi koju često spominjemo……
DryShips doesn’t hesitate to ride the high waves.
Some call its approach risky, but the Greek dry-bulk carrier won’t sit and wait. It has been buying vessels rapidly and puts them on the water while the market is hot……….
The company’s DRYS business is focused on supplying dry-bulk ships on the spot market. Spot rates are determined purely by supply and demand. It’s volatile, but return is much higher than the time-charter business, which offers discounted rates for customers who lock in ships for three to five years. When the number of customers who need vessels for 30- to 40-day voyages declines, spot rates sink quickly. Rates fell recently after Chinese steel producers started negotiating next year’s iron ore price with mining giants such as BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) BHP and Rio Tinto RTP. Dry-bulk carriers move loads of iron ore, coal and steel. Every move by China, the biggest iron ore importer, seems to affect the industry. China buys its iron ore, a major ingredient for steel, mainly from Australia and Brazil.
China acts as if it doesn’t need much iron ore because it doesn’t want to overpay, says Urs Dur, an analyst of Lazard Capital Markets.
”As we see the market continue to grow, we will obviously try to stay more spot,” George Economou, chief executive of the Greek company, said during an earnings conference call. Iron ore transportation is the biggest revenue source for dry-bulk shippers, and Economou indicated that he was confident China needs more iron ore because ”China is not even halfway through the industrial production cycle.”Analysts agree with him.
”Getting Chinese off of iron ore is like getting Americans to stop eating hamburgers,”said Dur. ”It’s pretty unlikely. They need it badly.” Volatility in the spot rate doesn’t affect the industry for the long term once negotiation matures, says Doug Mavrinac, an analyst at Jefferies. (NYSE:JEF) ………………..
Rates for panamax ships, the second biggest dry-bulk ships after capesize, have risen 70% since July, to $93,000 a day. ”You are going to pay record-high levels for vessels,” Mavrinac said. ”For 2008, steel consumption is to increase significantly and rates will strengthen.” He says mining companies adding 72 million tons of iron ore production capacity means increased demand for iron ore shipping. To take maximum advantage of a risky spot market, DryShips’ strategy is buying secondhand vessels rapidly. ……………………Unlike used cars, secondhand dry-bulk vessels cost much more than a brand-new ship.
To build a new panamax costs $53 mil, but a five-year-old panamax would cost $85 mil, Mavrinac says. Once the company buys a used ship, the ship can be put on the water right away to take advantage of strong spot rates, but it will take two to three years for a new ship to be delivered. DryShips didn’t want to wait.
As charter rates go up, the asset value of secondhand vessels has been skyrocketing. A five-year-old vessel that cost $81 mil 10 months ago now costs $136 mil, Mavrinac says. Even though DryShips kept spending millions to buy vessels, it was able to get higher returns from spot rates, easily offsetting the costs. ”They are generating a tremendous amount of cash,” Mavrinac said, adding that the company could be close to debt-free by the end of 2008 if it stops acquiring ships. But it’s unlikely the company will stop buying vessels as long as China keeps buying iron ore. ”I think (DryShips) loves using debt because they can get very strong return,” Nokta said. ”They were buying assets like crazy and it worked out for their favor.”
Meanwhile, mining giants are starting to build their own vessels to carry iron ore. Rio Tinto said it got its first delivery of post-panamax-size ships in August.
Does this mean a possible threat to DryShips?
The answer is no, many analysts say. It’s possible that
……………………………and now something completely different:
……………” It’s possible that mining companies ”could attempt to use their own fleets as a longer-term bargaining tool,” said Tim Tiberio, an analyst at Oppenheimer said. ”But not in the near term.”
As rates moved higher, shares of DryShips and its peers fell in the last few weeks. Mavrinac says the fall was due to the overall weak market, and that nothing is fundamentally wrong with the company. Dur says dry-bulk shippers are not affected by the U.S. subprime crisis, but DryShips will move up and down with the market, and even though it has the highest return, ”dividends are not so big.” As China’s negotiations continue, the country would agree to a 15% to 30% iron ore price increase compared with last year, Dur predicts. The higher price hike means the higher demand for iron ore, therefore, customers would pay higher prices for vessels at spot market, he said.
But how long can DryShips enjoy higher rates? ”It’s going to be a while,” Nokta said. ”For the past year and a half, no matter how much steel was produced, it’s not enough. There are people who are willing to pay higher prices to secure ships.”
Bože,počeo sam sam sebi ličiti na drukera…..
RECORD WORLD CORN TRADE 22-11-2007
According to the latest trade projections from the International Grains Council, world corn trade is forecast to reach a new record in the 2007/08 crop year (July-June) of 95 Mt. The latest forecast is up 2 Mt from last month’s projections due to higher purchases by Near East Asia, especially Saudi Arabia, and strong EU imports from Brazil and is up 8 Mt from last year’s trade estimate. Corn exports from Brazil have been revised upwards by 1 Mt to a record 9.5 Mt, while US exports remained unchanged at 60 Mt. Outstanding sales of US corn (contracted but not yet shipped) have been very strong since the new season began in October (+61% on the same time last year).