Gigic može li molim te prijevod onako u grubo, za nas koji ne razumijemo engleski :-))
Hvala!!
Ovo SeaBear-ovo za ružno pače i labuda razumijem :-))
Sve ove brojke su izrazito pozitivan signal za dry bulk sektor, osobito gledajući trend i puno su bolje od očekivanja svjetskih analitičara. Uglavnom kao posljedicu,realno je očekivati vrlooooo intenzivan odgovor dionica dry bulk sektora. 😃.
Očekuje nas vrlo zanimljiv period.
Ovdje se piše o revalorizaciji brodova.
O kakvoj revalorizaciji se druka, a i nedavno dva broda odletila.
Što će ostati za revalorizaciju?
Koliko je uopće kapitala ostalo s obzirom na dugove?
Bdi se godinama može vući oko ove razine, sa novom krizom kolika će biti cijena?
Vani nova kriza možda i krene za 1-2 godine?
Za bdi se može pretpostaviti gdje će onda?
Ovdje se piše o revalorizaciji brodova.
O kakvoj revalorizaciji se druka, a i nedavno dva broda odletila.
Što će ostati za revalorizaciju?
Koliko je uopće kapitala ostalo s obzirom na dugove?
Bdi se godinama može vući oko ove razine, sa novom krizom kolika će biti cijena?
Vani nova kriza možda i krene za 1-2 godine?
Za bdi se može pretpostaviti gdje će onda?
A gdje ce?
Jel ti to pretpostavljas ili gatas ili crtas grafove..
Koja je poanta tvog pisanja kada nemas niti jednu brodski dionicu..
Sta si stvarno toliki altruista da nam ukazivas na neke stvari koje nemaju veze sa istinom i realnoscu..
Govorim ovo jer mi je to struka..
Kako vjeku ovakvi pausalni postovi bez linka bez ikakve cinjenice uopce prolaze..
I tko je sad ovaj robin i sto ga progoni da sipa na brodsim dionicama samo izmisljotine koje veze sa stvarnoscu nemaju..
[color=#175189]Ova poruka je premještena iz teme: ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)[/color]
Nije ružičasto, ali daleko od crnog.
Stifel projects bulker recovery ceiling
While the bulls are gathering pace analyst Ben Nolan says the bears should not be forgotten.
April 18th, 2017 09:57 GMT
by Andy Pierce
Published in DRY CARGO, Tradewinds
US investment bank Stifel today delivered a sober assessment of the dry cargo market upturn as it introduced higher earnings estimates that suggest a staggered return to profit for most listed companies during the next few years.
Analyst Ben Nolan said the market was struck between bull and bear cases and suggested only a modest recovery would unfold.
Nolan summarized the present bulker market as having seen a “strong uplift in optimism”, alongside a “respectable” rise in asset values and a “modest recovery” in spot rates.
At the same time, the newbuilding orderbook is “smaller”, the coal market is “less bad”, the analyst said.
“Our view is that the market has improved sooner than we had expected, but ultimate upside is likely limited to mid-cycle levels at best which are now already reflected in asset values and dry bulk equities,” he said.
Nolan notes that expected demand growth of only 1% to 2% over the coming years compares with the 6% per year required in the past five cycles to push rates and asset prices beyond mid-cycle levels.
“Furthermore, as secondhand asset values approach parity with newbuilding pricing, owners will inevitably begin ordering new vessels, but with ample shipyard capacity, this is unlikely to drive newbuilding prices up, thus putting a soft ceiling on secondhand asset values and NAV appreciation,” he said.
“Where we are now is probably most of the way to where the market is capable of going.”
While Nolan is not getting carried away by this year’s upturn, he has reset his rate forecasts for bulkers.
He is now projecting capesize rates of $16,000 per day this year, up from $12,500 per day previously.
Expectations for 2018 and 2019 have also been raised to $20,000 and $22,000 per day respectively, both up by $2,000 per day from before.
Stifel’s forecasts for post-panamaxes have also been boosted modestly, from $9,750 per day to $11,500 per day in 2017 and from $12,000 to $13,000 per day in 2018, according to a first quarter earnings preview.
Based on the bank’s revised numbers, Star Bulk and Navios Maritime Partners will both log a profit in 2017.
Navios Maritime Holdings and Safe Bulkers will follow in 2018, with Scorpio Bulkers moving out of the red in 2019.
Brodolomac
http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/DSX,DRYS,EGLE,EXM,FREE,GNK,NM,NMM,ocnf,PRGN,qmar,SBLK,TBSI/view/v1
Ekstremno creveno a ne ružičasto.
Robinh,
hvala, vidim i sam, ali se ne bavim sitnom taktikom.
Nije ružičasto, ali daleko od crnog.
Stifel projects bulker recovery ceiling
While the bulls are gathering pace analyst Ben Nolan says the bears should not be forgotten.
April 18th, 2017 09:57 GMT
by Andy Pierce
Published in DRY CARGO, Tradewinds
US investment bank Stifel today delivered a sober assessment of the dry cargo market upturn as it introduced higher earnings estimates that suggest a staggered return to profit for most listed companies during the next few years.
Analyst Ben Nolan said the market was struck between bull and bear cases and suggested only a modest recovery would unfold.
Nolan summarized the present bulker market as having seen a "strong uplift in optimism", alongside a "respectable" rise in asset values and a "modest recovery" in spot rates.
At the same time, the newbuilding orderbook is "smaller", the coal market is "less bad", the analyst said.
“Our view is that the market has improved sooner than we had expected, but ultimate upside is likely limited to mid-cycle levels at best which are now already reflected in asset values and dry bulk equities,” he said.
Nolan notes that expected demand growth of only 1% to 2% over the coming years compares with the 6% per year required in the past five cycles to push rates and asset prices beyond mid-cycle levels.
“Furthermore, as secondhand asset values approach parity with newbuilding pricing, owners will inevitably begin ordering new vessels, but with ample shipyard capacity, this is unlikely to drive newbuilding prices up, thus putting a soft ceiling on secondhand asset values and NAV appreciation,” he said.
“Where we are now is probably most of the way to where the market is capable of going.”
While Nolan is not getting carried away by this year’s upturn, he has reset his rate forecasts for bulkers.
He is now projecting capesize rates of $16,000 per day this year, up from $12,500 per day previously.
Expectations for 2018 and 2019 have also been raised to $20,000 and $22,000 per day respectively, both up by $2,000 per day from before.
Stifel’s forecasts for post-panamaxes have also been boosted modestly, from $9,750 per day to $11,500 per day in 2017 and from $12,000 to $13,000 per day in 2018, according to a first quarter earnings preview.
Based on the bank’s revised numbers, Star Bulk and Navios Maritime Partners will both log a profit in 2017.
Navios Maritime Holdings and Safe Bulkers will follow in 2018, with Scorpio Bulkers moving out of the red in 2019.
Ovo je najoptimističniji tekst do danas. Naravno prisutni optimizam niti izbliza ne može dočarati stvarno stanje koje je neusporedivo bolje i optimističnije.
Evo jedan mali primjer matematike u školici:
sa današnjim vozarinama neka hipotetska brodarska tvrtka koja solidno upravlja flotom zarađuje sa svakim skokom vozarina od 1000$ koliko ono netto profita?
Jeste sjeli, uzeli čašu vode, normabel?
Ajmo to probati izračunati:
broj brodova x 1000$ x operativni broj dana (cca 360)= broj brodova * 360.000 $, znate što je tu najbolje?
Radi se o netto profitu.
Zašto je to tako, pa jer se radi o poslovanju visoke marginalne dobiti.
Evo još jasnije, kada bi vozarine bile takve godinu dana, koliko bi neka hipotetska tvrtka zaradila netto prije poreza.
Pa cca 1.100.000$ po brodu. Znači neka kompanija koja ima u floti npr 20 brodova zaradila bi cca 22.000.000 $, naravno netto profita.
I sada ide najbolji dio, kada bi te iste vozarine porasle za još 1000$, koliko bi narastao netto profit, jednostavno za dodatnih 7.200.000$ na ukupno 29.200.000$. Znači sa rastom vozarine za 7,7%, netto profit je veći koliko ono 32,73%
Dragi moji, pitate se je li to kraj računice, ne nije. Ima još bolje, jer zbog naprijed navedenog Vaša flota je puno vrednija. Koliko, pa malo istražujte i računajte sami.
Voli Vas forumski drug!
starac i more usporedba brodara, dsx,a vi pjevate borbene o 1000 ili 2500 kn atpl 🙁
starac i more usporedba brodara, dsx,a vi pjevate borbene o 1000 ili 2500 kn atpl 🙁
Pa ti Zmajki u shopping DSX-a. Sretno i tebi, nemoraš se zamarati pisanjem na forumu.