BDI falls over delayed trade agreement
“Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropped by 7.63% on-day to 1,533 points on Wednesday, over weak shipping fundamentals.
The Capesize market – often see as the bellwether for dry bulk shipping growth continued to weaken during the week from limited shipping activity.
As such, the Capesize paper market faced a selloff throughout the week with a sharp drop in Wednesday as the Capeszie 5 time charter average fell by $2,395 on-day to $22,217.
Port Closures in China
Freight rates headed southward as the week opened with a public holiday in Japan, while the coal-related trade participants were away from the market to attend Coaltrans conference held in Vietnam.
Furthermore, the shipping activities were affected by port closures in North China, where port like Jingtang, Caofeidian and Bayuquan were suspended from operations due to strong winds.
There were also low shipping activities in the Atlantic market, while the Pacific market was not doing well either and freight rates were expected to move further down over short term.
Delayed US-China trade agreement?
The “Phrase One” trade agreement between US and China seen to hit another hiccup with the possibility of postponing the signing of agreement till December.
The on-and-off trade tussle between the world’s number one and second largest economy had placed the shipping market on the wrong foot with more trade uncertainty.
Thus, some trade participants doubted whether China will still purchase US farm products such as soybeans as part of the trade deals.”
BDI -6.85%, 1.428
Capesize -8.49% to $20,330
Panamax -3.24% to $10,764
Supramax 58k tons -6.09% to $9,726
Handysize -1.34% to $7,955
🤞😉😎😀🍾👋💪👌
Europe 0.5% sulfur bunker fuel demand reaches tipping point
“Every day there is less HSFO sold and more VLSFO so by the end of the month it will be about 70-30,” the supplier added. Other Rotterdam-based suppliers said the balance between the fuels was 50-50. A European bunker buyer also put the current balance of 0.5% and 3.5% S fuels at 50-50. In the western Mediterranean, a similar pattern was developing, with sales of 0.5% sulfur fuel oil only slightly less than those of 3.5% sulfur fuel oil, a Mediterranean supplier said.
“U.S. soybean futures rebounded from two sessions of declines on Thursday on stronger-than-expected export sales and renewed optimism about an interim U.S.-China trade deal after government officials said it could include a phased rollback of tariffs – Reuters”
Nadam se da ce BDI okrenuti idući tjedan
Nadam se da ce BDI okrenuti idući tjedan
samo da ne okrene “oštro dolje”
cape -3,0% / 19 716
Nadam se da ce BDI okrenuti idući tjedan
DA…..😎🍾
Baltic Dry Index Falls 3.5% to 1,378 in London
•Capesize -3.02% to $19,716
•Panamax -3.72% to $10,364
•Supramax 58k tons -4.61% to $9,278
•Handysize -1.84% to $7,809
opet pad??? džizus…
Decki, stvarno nemam loše namjere, ali neke stvari me strašno živciraju. Kao prvo; kad vam netko napiše BDI raste od sutra, odmah tu osobu stavite na ignore, jer ta osoba nema pojma o čemu govori. BDI je toliko kompleksan indeks, da ga je nemoguce pogoditi u tjedan, kamoli u dan. To pisu deckici kao gigic koji pojma nemaju. Da bi se znalo o bdi-u nesto više, kao i njegovo kretanje, sigurno vam treba najmanje 300 sati rada na njegovoj analizi, a i to sam vjerovatno jos i malo rekao. Deckici ovdje nisu procitali tri stranice u zivotu, kamoli nesto analizirali toliko. Kad sam zadnji put rekao da će bdi padati, vjerovao sam u to jer su tako stvari bile poslozene, ali nisam nisam ni sam vjerovao da će ovoliko pasti, pogotovo jer je 4Q najcesce najjaci za ovaj sektor. da budemo na čisto.
kao drugo; ovoliki pad je neosnovan, i zaista bi od sljedeceg tjedna moglo doci do promjene (kratkorocne), pogotovo jer je bdi (moguce) pao zbog nekih jednokratnih stavki, koje će sljedeci tjedan proci.
kao trece, kako ja vidim indeks za sad, on ce, nakon nekog kratkorocnog rasta, ostati zadrzan na ovim ili malo visim razinama od ovih do kraja godine. Ako se ameri i kinezi dogovore, i zima u kini bude hladna, moguci je i nekakav oporavak indeksa, ne prevelik, ali koji svejedno nece opravdati cijene ATPL-a od 450kn-a, jer su 1 i 2Q najgori kvartali u godini za ovaj sektor. Tako da pamet u glavu.
Freight futures
Capesize flat
Panamax flat
P.S. Bar nije negativno, već flat, šta god to bilo 🙂