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A rise in demand from higher commodity volumes and a reduction in supply owing to IMO 2020 low sulfur fuel regulations are giving a boost to the international dry bulk freight markets, says Hong Kong ship operator Pacific Basin (HKEX: 2343).

The future will likely see continued “generally tight market conditions” with freight rates supported by the switch to more expensive low-sulfur fuels. That will, in turn, likely lead to a slowing-down of the world fleet (going faster consumes disproportionately more fuel) which will reduce supply, Pacific Basin says.

Volumes of bauxite (the ore from which aluminum is extracted), nickel and manganese all “grew at robust levels” while Chinese imports of logs, fertilizers, bauxite, nickel ore, copper concentrates, manganese ore together grew at about 17% and coal volumes increased by 8%. But grain (cereals and soybean) fell by 13% and iron ore fell by 3%.

Cereal volumes into China fell owing to the Washington-Beijing trade war and soybean volumes fell owing to a widespread outbreak in Asia of African Swine Fever. The fever, native to sub-Saharan Africa lives in ticks and wild-pigs. Infected pigs lose their appetites, fall into a coma, and die. The mortality rate for domesticated pigs is close to 100%. An outbreak of African Swine Fever broke out in China in August 2018. By October 2019 millions upon millions of pigs have been culled in an attempt to halt the virus.

Pacific Basin added that “tighter supply” also led to stronger rates and this was driven by global fleet inefficiencies and ships preparing to comply with new ballast water requirements and IMO 2020.

Ships draw in and expel large volumes of seawater as ballast to maintain stability and reduce stress on the hull. Unfortunately, the practice can result in micro-organisms being sucked into the tanks, transported around the world and then expelled into new environments. The foreign organisms may then out-compete, out-breed, or predate upon local organisms which can cause local ecological collapse. One example is the European Shore Crab (Carcinus maenas), a voracious feeder, which is native to north-west Europe but has spread around the world.

Countries have decided, through the International Maritime Organization, to issue a new, more strict, global standard for ship’s ballast water discharge.

The other major regulatory change is the IMO 2020 regulation which radically reduces the amount of sulfur that can be emitted by a ship as a result of combustion.

Pacific Basin reports that “a large number of ships have migrated eastward” to have new ballast water treatment systems and sulfur scrubbers installed in Asian shipyards. This has resulted in “stronger freight market conditions in the Atlantic,” Pacific Basin says.

The subsequent squeeze on shipyard capacity has further reduced the supply of ocean shipping services as ships wait for slot space – both for compliance with the new rules and for regular dry-docking.

Meanwhile, the company reports, the appetite for ordering new ships “remains restrained, discouraged by the continued gap between new building and second hand prices as well as uncertainty over upcoming environmental regulations (to meet the IMO’s ambitious C02 reduction strategy) and their impact on future vessel designs”.