BDI +1.88%, 2.170
Capesize +1.69% to $32,765
Panamax +1.73% to $17,348
Supramax 58k tons +2.76% to $11,282
Handysize +1.23% to $7,225
👏👌👋😀✌😉💪🤞😎👍
Uskoro 2200, što nije zabilježeno koliko ono godina 💪💪💪💪💪💪💪
Iako nismo dotakli 2.200 bodova, ovaj tjedan je bio doista spektakularan.
To što se nije dogodilo ovaj tjedan, dogodit će se idući, sviđalo se to nekome ili ne.
Kao što nam je kolega gigic23 napisao: BDI od 2.200 bodova čekamo već 6 godina, al ono što je važnije, Panamaxi na ovoj razini nisu bili već 9 godina. Hej, 9 godina…
Nešto veliko se iza brda valja. Ne treba podcjenjivati ATPL jer je 2007. godine pokazala kaj može. Ne očekujem baš takav scenarij, ali i 1/3 takvog scenarija bi već bilo više nego što itko od nas to u ovom trenutku očekuje.
Dry bulk remains the biggest story. Bulker rates, especially those for ships booked in the Atlantic Basin, are reaching levels not seen in years.
It has been a long time since the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has garnered this many headlines.
The BDI is a daily composite of time-charter averages of Capesizes – bulkers of 100,000 deadweight tons (DWT) or more – Panamaxes (65,000-90,000 DWT) and Supramaxes (45,000-60,000 DWT).
On July 18, the BDI reached 2,130, its highest level since December 2013, five-and-a-half years ago. If it climbs much higher, it will hit levels not seen since 2010, nine years ago. The all-time high of the BDI was 11,793 in May 2008; unprecedented BDI levels recorded in 2007-08 are generally considered a one-off event that has never been seen before or since.
It’s another electric day in the Capesize market,” proclaimed Clarksons Platou Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal in a client note on July 18. “Demand out of Brazil has acted as the catalyst for a surge in rates in both basins, with earnings reported this morning at the highest level since December 2013.” According to Clarksons, Capesize rates are $32,200 per day, up 18 percent week-on-week and up 116 percent month-on-month.
“In the Panamax segments, rates have improved on the continued tight market in the Atlantic, and a steady Pacific,” said Mørkedal. Clarksons reported that on July 18, Panamax rates were $17,600 per day, up 13 percent week-on-week and 65 percent month-on-month.
Panamax demand has two key drivers. First, larger Capesizes are scarce in the Atlantic Basin, both because they’re being soaked up by the Brazil-to-China iron-ore trade and because they’re being pulled from service for installation of ‘scrubbers,’ which are required for vessels that continue to burn high-sulfur fuel after the global sulfur cap on marine fuel and emissions is enacted on January 1, 2020.
Because of the scarcity of Capesizes, loads that would normally be carried on Capesizes are being split into smaller parcels and loaded on Panamaxes, increasing Panamax rates.
The second driver for Panamax rates is South American soybeans. “With no trade deal between the U.S. and China in place yet, it seems that Chinese buyers have leaned back to Brazilian grains to rebuild inventories,” said Mørkedal.
Despite all this good news, there is understandable skepticism regarding the fate of dry bulk rates. According to the latest weekly report of Athens-based ship brokerage Intermodal, “It is only natural that a number of market participants that have lived through the wild ups and downs during the past years remain cautious. The second half of the summer will test how fundamentally strong the market really is.”
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ocean-rate-report-capesize-bulker-rates-are-electrifying/amp
Evo malo brojeva
BPI viši od danasnjih 2.134 zadnji puta videno 16.12.2010
Panamaxi zadnji puta viši od 17.000$ videno 14.03.2011
BDI zadnji puta visi od 2.130 , 08.10.2013
Evo malo.i o capeovima
Znači pr vozarina capeova za ovaj tjedan rasla je 16.66% u odnosu na tjedan prije.
I jos malo Cijeli YTD do 14.07 , raste sa 21.07 za nevjerovatnih 6,16% pazi ovo za samo tjedan dana.
Nazdravlje
[/quote]
Brojevi nastavak
Capeovi
od 14.06 – 19.07. rast od 14.203$ na 32.765$ ili 130,69% za 5 tjedana
Panamaxi
od 21.06 – 19.07 rast od 8.795$ na 17.348$ ili 97, 2% za 4 tjedna
Panamax Atlantic ruta
od 21.06 – 19.07 rast od 7.425$ na 21.015$ za 4 tjedna ili 183,03%
Dry bulk je vrlo kompleksan i komplciran business i dramatican pad vozrina u proslosti kao.i trenutacni intenzivan rast vozarina ni na.koji nacin ne moraju biti pokazatelj budućeg kretanja vozarina.
Ali okolnosti u kojma se desavaju mogu davati potencijalne naznake budućeg smjera.
👍😀😎🤞💪
Analysis Manager: May be the longest cyclical expansion period since the 1740s
The rates have not been higher for over five years in the “hopeless” market. Analysis manager sees great upside in his sector favorite.
The dry bulk shares have long sailed in headwinds after weak market conditions became even weaker as a result of the drought catastrophe in Brazil earlier in February.
But suddenly the situation has turned and the rates have shot right in the way of a projectile.
The Baltic Dry index rose 1.9 per cent to 2,170 points on Friday. This is an increase of almost 90 per cent in the last month, and about 71 per cent since the New Year.
The Baltic Dry index has not been higher since 2013.
Capesize rates are now about $ 32,200 a day, against the average so far this year at $ 11,800 a day.
There will be higher demand for iron ore from China that drives the rates at this time. The vessels are hired on the route between Brazil and China, which quickly pushes the utilization rate north.
The Golden Ocean share has risen almost 50 percent since June, and Star Bulk has also gone off by about 40 percent in the same period.
Nevertheless, there may still be a large upside in the space.
– Made for one of the longest cyclical expansion periods since the 1740s
Joakim Hannisdahl, chief of analysis at Cleaves Securities, follows the sector closely, and he has none of the “Norwegian” shares as his favorite among the dry bulk carriers.
– My favorite is Genco Shipping, where there is a 50 per cent upside to our price target of $ 16, says the analyst of Hegnar.no about the stock, which on closing Friday traded for $ 10.41.
Genco Shipping is a New York-based dry bulk carrier with ISIN from the Marshall Islands. The company controls 58 ships, of which 17 are Capesize, two Panamax, 20 Supramax, 13 Handysize and six Ultramax. The average age of the fleet is about 9.4 years and the company is mainly exposed to the spot market.
The Genco share has risen above 40 per cent since mid-June, but Hannisdahl still sees significant upside in the case.
– The company is priced at a 32 per cent discount on value-adjusted equity (NAV), and EV / EBITDA of 4x and 2x in 2020 and 202, respectively. we believe are increasing ship values in the future, says Hannisdahl.
The Cleaves analyst points out to Hegnar.no that the weak market in spring is only due to temporary effects.
– Dry bulk has so far experienced a very heavy year, with lower demand growth due to, among other things, the dam collapse in Brazil and a particularly strong cyclone in Australia. However, this is only temporary effects and not systemic as with cyclic bottoms.
Because when you look up and forward, Hannisdahl believes that the weak market in spring will lay the foundation for a significantly better market in the future.
– The positive effect of the weak market has been that contracting new buildings has been at very low levels, and the order book is close to historical bottom levels. Thus, I think it is set for one of the longest cyclical expansion periods since the 1740s , concludes the analyst at Hegnar
Chinese firms ask for tariff exemptions to buy US agricultural products, state media says
Application for waivers a result of agreement reached by presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Osaka
Analysts initially cautious on whether China agriculture purchases will lead to a resumption of formal talks to end the year-long trade war
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3019498/chinese-firms-ask-tariff-exemptions-buy-us-agricultural
China plans US farm product purchases, shows sincerity to reach deal
I danas u Kini svi segmenti u plusu.
nice 🙂