https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2019/01/Slik-gaar-det-med-toerrbulk-aksjene9

BDI na 852 poena…optimisti bi rekli to je još uvijek na duplo višoj razini od minimuma…
Ali ima li baš razloga za optimizam?
Daleko je 2000…a i ono što je najbitnije…hendiji, panamaxi i supre su se istopili…nema tu kruha…

Ne zabrinjavam se ni najmanje!
Uvijek je tako u prvom mjesecu
do kineske Nove godine, a tek u
2. mjesecu kreće oporavak indeksa!

http://www.when-is.com/chinese-new-year-2019.asp

"Chinese New Year in 2019 is on Tuesday, the 5th of February (5/2/2019)."
[/quote]

Do onda će ti to roknut na 600-700 bodova….a oporavak će vam onda biti da se vrati iznad 1000….
[/quote]

Post od 15.1….optimisti vjerojatno i onda marcipana nisu doživljavali ozbiljno…ali eto…852 je bliže 700 nego 2000…
Kako je na palubi, uistinu ne bi znao…samo znam da su neki govorili prije godinu dana kako ide fenomwnalna 2018. i iza nje još bolja 2019…

Trading Summary Q4-18 & January 2019

• General trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty reduced trading appetite from cautious importers
ready to close their books at the end of the year.
• Increasing soybean imports from Brazil in early Q4-18 was not enough to offset the total reduction in
Chinese imports.
•China’s total soybean imports for November and December fell from 18.3m MT in 2017 to 11.1m MT in 2018, 39% y-o-y decrease
(1)
•Strong increases in Indian thermal coal imports were mitigated by the reduction in Chinese imports due to above average coal inventories
•Mild winter conditions in the North America and Europe have reduced coal trading activity

Going Forward

•Progress in the US-China trade war which was reported in late November could materialize after Chinese New Year, boosting US grain and soybean exports
•Historically, slow periods of Chinese GDP growth have been followed by government stimulus which would boost iron ore and coal imports
•Limited supply in mid size segments with 3% and 1.5% net fleet growth for 2019 and 2020
(2)
http://www.scorpiobulkers.com/~/media/Files/S/Scorpio-Bulkers/4Q%20Earnings%20Presentation-FINAL2.pdf

China invests US$163.2 billion in infrastructure to stave off economic slowdown and effect of trade war
Since the start of December, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved 16 projects, worth at least 1.1 trillion yuan (US$163.2 billion) in total, according to South China Morning Post analysis of official data.
By comparison, between December 2017 and January 2018, the NDRC approved just seven projects, worth a total of 105.79 billion yuan (US$15.69 billion).
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2183977/china-ramps-infrastructure-spend-stave-economic-slowdown-and

Kako izgleda kineski uvoz ugljena posljednjih 6m?
srpanj 29 mt
kolovoz 28.7 mt
rujan 25 mt
listopad 23 mt
studeni 19 mt
prosinac 10 mt uz rekordnu domaću proizvodnju i zabranu uvoza
Za ilustraciju 2015. uvoz je 204 mt, 2016 255 mt, 2017. uvoz je bio 270 mt a za 2018. 281 mt.
Na razine od prošle i pretprošle godine kako sada stvari stoje očito se ne može računati.
Jasno je da je pad uvoza dramatičan i posljedice se vide na strmoglavom padu vozarina koje predvode supre i panamaxi što i nije baš uobičajeno.

Znači cape -7.4%
I dalje padaline

BDI 797

-6,5%

ovo kad okrene…

koliko bi to biliv – 7000 do 7500 usd , tako nekako zar ne

Baltic Dry -6,5%
Capesize -7,4%
Panamax -6,3%
Handysize -4,3%
Supramax -4,5%

Nemoj ti nama kad okrene…raspad sistema je…a nije bilo ni nešto Bog zna što na razinama od 1500 poena…