Kako BDI nipošto i ni u kojem slučaju nije predmet špekulativnog rasta/pada već je odraz realne potrebe za sirovinama (hence potražnje/proizvodnje), vjerujem da nema boljeg indikatora gospodarskog rasta/pada.

Graf u nastavku dobro ilustrira što želim reći:
http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/baltic_dry_freight_index.jpg

Slj. graf daje grubo predviđanje BDI ciklusa sve do 2032:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/global_cycle1972-2032.png

Pošto nisam stručnjak za brodarstvo, želio bih čuti koju od autoriteta u ovom području za koje znam da pišu na ovome forumu.

Imaš već temu "Brodari i usporedba brodara" pa nije potrebna nova tema o BDI

Ova tema nema veze s brodarima. Ima veze s utjecajem vozarina na predviđanje budućih ekonomskih kretanja

Pa evo, reći ću samo da znam da neke od vodećih financijskih institucija u svijetu koriste i BDI kao jedan od indikatora u procjeni kretanja globalne ekonomije.
Nemojte me držati za riječ ali mislim da je bilo riječ o Goldman Sachsu.
Slijedeći citat vam može puno toga pojasniti.

"Movements in the Baltic Index tend to precede movements in global stock markets. But the index also tends to presage higher interest rates. When more stuff is being shipped around the world, it needs to be financed. And that creates a greater demand for credit."

Bespotrebna tema kraj teme Brodari i usporedba brodara.
Moje mišljenje.

zanima me gdje ste nasli te grafove?

The biggest bubble of them all; globalization

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) — The 90 percent tumble in the global benchmark for commodity shipping costs since May exceeded the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s plunge during the Great Depression, signaling globalization is “the biggest bubble of them all,” Bespoke Investment Group LLC said.

The Baltic Dry Index’s drop from its peak just five months ago surpassed all of those, along with the Dow’s 89 percent retreat from 1929 to 1932, according to Bespoke.

“The Baltic Dry Index had a meteoric run since the start of the decade, as it became one of the key symbols of the `globalization’ trade,” Paul Hickey, co-founder of the Harrison, New York-based research and money management firm, wrote in a report yesterday. “It now appears that like any `new thing,’ the globalization trade went too far.”

The Baltic Dry Index fell yesterday for a 14th straight session as the freeze in money markets curbed traders’ ability to buy cargo on credit.

This means that global trade is rapidly slowing to a crawl with unknown impacts. The rates are plummeting as fewer international loads are competed for by a vast fleet of cargo ships whose carrying costs demand that they be used.

Certainly for the nearly record number of cargo ships that are being constructed somebody is going to take a huge hit. Many will never be completed. Dockyards and shipping companies alike will go under.

Before too long we might expect shortages of some products to begin showing up here and there.

For those more visually oriented, here’s the chart of the shipping rates. Ouch. Imagine trying to run a shipping business. How would you set a budget and plan for this? Clearly the monetary system is broken and dysfunctional. The sooner we can all admit that, the better.

Ono što mene zanima jest :

This means that global trade is rapidly slowing to a crawl with unknown impacts.

Dakle, zbog kreditne krize nema kredita. Zbog toga što nema kredita, brodovi stoje. Brodovi stoje, proizvodnja trpi/nestaje. Izuzetno je uznemirujući BDI graf, tako nešto nisam nikada vidio. A ako ima istine u postu od kolege ent-a (a ja naginjem tom mišljenju), onda bismo tek mogli očekivati pravi meltdown

Ko visoko leti nisko pada, a nadamo se da će se kao Feniks dići iz pepela i ponovo porasti.
Kada Kinezi i Brazilci potpišu ugovoro o isporuci rudače, odosmo gore.

Cestitam kolega. Poceli ste otvarat oci.

Slažem se sa Alienom.
Jedino… mislim da ipak nećemo padati do 2011. Trajati će to kraće, situacija će se primiriti, ali zato neće biti onog dvostrukog-trostrukog rasta kao prije. Mislim da ga neće biti još par godina.